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  • Equities have continued to move lower since the European cash open as markets balance positive and negative updates on the COVID-19 front; ES & NQ -0.4%, RTY -0.7%
  • AstraZeneca/Oxford COVID-19 vaccine has produced a strong immune response among elderly adults; Phase III efficacy data possible in the coming weeks
  • EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier has cancelled briefings to the EU on Tuesday night and Wednesday mid day; interpreted as a cautious positive by BBC’s Kuenssberg
  • CBRT hiked by 475bps as...
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  • Asian bourses were mixed as the region partially shrugged-off the risk-averse mood that rolled over from US where early vaccine optimism faded amid COVID-19 concerns
  • Selling in the US exacerbated heading into the close after New York City Mayor De Blasio announced the closure of all public schools from today
  • In FX, the DXY has slipped back below 92.50, EUR/USD hovers around 1.1850 and GBP/USD has trimmed gains
  • European leaders will reportedly demand today that the European Commission publishes...
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  • European bourses are currently modestly firmer after a slightly subdued start to the session; NQ (+0.3%) initially outperformed but RTY (+0.3%) has closed the gap as the session progressed
  • House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer sent Senate Majority Leader McConnell a letter calling to start negotiations on COVID-19 relief this week
  • UK Gov’t reportedly to push back on the idea of an imminent Brexit deal and senior sources in Brussels also don't think the politics are right yet; EU briefing...
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  • Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region attempted to pick up from the weak handover from Wall Street
  • In FX, the DXY remained below the 92.50 level, EUR/USD modestly extended gains, GBP/USD sits above 1.3250
  • France is understood to have accepted there will be reduced fishing access to UK waters post-Brexit, according to The Telegraph
  • Downing Street was said to push back on the idea of an imminent Brexit deal, according to Times Radio’s Newton Dunn
  • Fed Chair Powell noted it was...
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  • European bourses have begun the session with modest losses, which have picked up as US participants enter the fray, amid a lack of fundamental updates
  • Tesla (TSLA) is to join S&P 500 prior to the open on December 21st, +12% in pre-market; Co. they are replacing will be announced prior to this
  • Brexit Negotiators are reportedly zeroing in on a trade deal as early as next week, sparking upside in Cable; note, such commentary is in-fitting with prior updates
  • FX features a rangebound, but subdued USD...
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  • Asian equity markets were somewhat indecisive and only mildly benefitted from the performance on Wall St where both the S&P 500 and DJIA posted record levels
  • UK Chief Brexit Negotiator Frost told UK PM Johnson to expect a Brussels trade agreement early next week, according to The Sun
  • An EU diplomat also suggested the EU is ready to find a creative solution to avoid an accidental no-deal Brexit, according to the Telegraph
  • In FX markets, the DXY trades modestly firmer above 92.50, EUR/USD hovers...
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  • Value outperforming growth once again (RTY +1.0%/NQ +0.5%) while European bourses are off highs as this price action emerges in Europe as well
  • US President-elect Biden is poised to speak today on plans for a post-COVID economic recovery and longer-term growth, tentatively scheduled for 13:45EST/18:45GMT
  • US President Trump reportedly plans a last-minute crackdown on China and will enact a series of hard-line policies in his final weeks, according to senior administration officials
  • EU Officials...
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  • Asian bourses kickstarted the week on the front foot and US equity futures extended on last Friday’s gains; ASX encountered technical problems
  • US President-elect Biden is poised to speak today on plans for a post-COVID economic recovery and longer-term growth, tentatively scheduled for 13:45EST/18:45GMT
  • US Operation Warp Speed Chief reiterated that they are hopeful for another positive vaccine update from Moderna (MRNA) this week
  • US...
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  • MON: OPEC JTC & Diwali (India); Chinese Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct), Norwegian Trade Balance (Oct), US New-York Fed Manufacturing (Nov)
  • TUE: RBA Minutes (Nov) & Hungarian Rate Decision, OPEC JMMC; Norwegian Consumer Confidence (Q4), US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Import/Export Prices, & Manufacturing Output (Oct); Japanese Trade Balance (Oct)
  • WED: UK CPI (October), EZ CPI (Oct, Final), US Building Permits &...
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  • European bourses are mixed/firmer after a tepid open with European sectors illustrating changing dynamics throughout the morning in-spite of quiet newsflow; ES +0.7%, NQ +0.8%, RTY +0.8%
  • FX features a depressed DXY with major peers largely firmer while fixed is firmer but off highs ahead of more central bank speak
  • Gilead's (GILD) antiviral remdesivir should not be used as a routine treatment for COVID-19 patients in critical care wards
  • Looking ahead highlights include US University of Michigan,...
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  • Asian equity markets weakened on spill-over selling from Wall Street; Hong Kong lagged
  • White House confirmed an executive order prohibiting US investments in firms deemed to be owned or controlled by China’s military
  • Fed Chair Powell said the recovery in the US has been faster than expected but it has slowed
  • Mexican Central Bank unexpectedly maintained rates in which only one member voted for a 25bps cut
  • EU...
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  • US futures are mixed with ES flat as NQ outperforms +0.5% with the RTY lagging -0.3% in a continuation of yesterday’s pause in rotation dynamics; also evidenced via European sectors
  • US, UK & EU have condemned China for the legislation taken against Hong Kong calling for it to be immediately removed; UK is considering sanctions in response
  • BoE Governor Bailey says we have talked about yield curve control & does not have a date in mind for the negative rate review
  • 165 critics of Google have...
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  • Asian equity markets traded mostly lower as sentiment gradually deteriorated from the mixed performance stateside
  • US President-elect Biden's current lead in Pennsylvania is reportedly larger than the margin for a recount
  • US National Security Adviser O'Brien said the US will sanction those responsible for Hong Kong freedom violations
  • In FX, DXY traded on either side of 93.00, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were lacklustre, JPY...
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  • Equities have seen a modest pause of the rotation exhibited since the PFE/BNTX update, evidenced via European sectors and NQ/RTY dynamics; US futures all broadly firmer
  • Goldman Sachs has raised its 2020 S&P 500 target to 3700 from 3600, sees it reaching 4200 by the end of 2021 and 4600 by the end of 2022
  • EU and UK negotiators are said to be likely to miss the mid-November (15th November) deadline to reach an accord on a new trade deal, sources state
  • RBNZ maintained the OCR at 0.25% and...
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  • Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region continued to benefit from the recent vaccine hopes
  • Wall Street saw mixed performance with a negative bias for tech stocks which suffered again from the rotation out of growth and into value
  • In FX markets, the greenback was slightly softer but with price action contained amid rangebound trade in its major counterparts
  • RBNZ maintained the OCR at 0.25% and LSAP at NZD 100bln as expected, whilst announcing a Funding for Lending...
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  • Value-growth rotation remains in force with European banks outperforming as is the Russell 2000 future +1.90% while NQ -1.9%
  • NIH's Fauci that the Pfizer vaccine is a big deal and there are still questions about its durability, while he added Moderna's results are expected soon
  • US Senate Majority Leader McConnell said Congress should pass a limited stimulus bill before year-end, following encouraging vaccine data & Trump is 100% within his rights to look into possible election...
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  • Asian equity markets were mostly higher as the region took its cue from the predominantly strong performance stateside where the S&P 500 and DJIA rallied to fresh record highs
  • Note, the broader US market retraced some of the gains heading into the close amid several bearish factors
  • NIH's Fauci said that the Pfizer vaccine is a big deal but there are still questions about its durability
  • In FX markets, the USD has pulled back from...
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  • AP, NBC, CNN, Fox and Edison Research have all called the election for Democrat Presidential candidate Biden
  • European bourses exhibit a strong start to the week following a similar APAC handover with US futures firmer by similar magnitudes; ES +1.6%, NQ +1.9%, YM +1.5%
  • Saudi Energy Minister says that with consensus they can tweak the OPEC+ agreement; could be a tweak beyond what analysts have raised
  • Turkish President Erdogan removed central bank Governor Uysal and appointed former Finance Minister...
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  • MON: Swiss Unemployment Rate (Oct), EZ Sentix (Nov), Mexican Inflation (Oct), US Employment Trends (Oct)
  • TUE: Norges Bank Financial Stability Report & EIA STEO; Chinese Inflation (Oct), Australian NAB Business Confidence (Oct), UK Unemployment (Sep), Norwegian CPI (Oct), German ZEW (Nov), US NFIB (Oct), Chinese M2 Money Supply & New Yuan Loans (Oct)
  • WED: RBNZ Rate Decision, ECB...
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  • AP, NBC, CNN, Fox and Edison Research have all called the election for Democrat Presidential candidate Biden
  • Asian bourses traded higher across the board and US equity futures were also lifted with risk appetite heightened post-election outcome
  • Chinese trade balance and exports topped estimates, although imports disappointed to suggest a weak domestic consumer profile
  • The DXY languished around 2-month lows on a 92.00 handle; EUR/USD approached 1.19 and GBP/USD eyed 1.32
  • Turkish President...
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  • The electoral vote tally remains unchanged from yesterday with Biden at 264 votes, including Arizona (11 EC votes), and President Trump at 214 votes
  • Georgia (16 EC votes) counts now have Biden leading by over 1k votes; with Arizona, Biden would have 280 EC votes without AZ he would hold 269
  • However, desks note it may not be possible to call Georgia Presidential race for weeks given how close the race is
  • Sentiment has slipped since the European cash open, ES -0.7%, though we are off lows with the...
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  • The electoral vote tally remains unchanged from yesterday with Biden at 264 votes (including Arizona) and President Trump at 214 votes
  • The key states still to be declared include Nevada (6 votes), Georgia (16 votes), North Carolina (15 votes) and Pennsylvania (20 votes)
  • FOMC left rates unchanged at 0.00%-0.25% as expected and affirmed its accommodative stance
  • Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region only partially sustaining the momentum from Wall Street where the post-election rally...
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  • The winner of the US Presidential Election has still yet to be declared, although Democrat Candidate Biden leads in electoral votes
  • In the immediacy, we are expecting updates from Nevada (6 ECV) from 12:00ET/17:00GMT today while Arizona (11 ECV) is not expected until after 21:00ET Thursday / 02:00GMT Friday
  • Currently, US equity futures are firmer with ES +1.8%, NQ +2.7%, YM +1.0%; DXY has dropped below the 93.00 mark and the yield curve is bull-flattening
  • BoE increased the asset purchase programme...
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  • The winner of the US Presidential Election has still yet to be declared, although Democrat Candidate Biden currently leads in electoral votes
  • Fox News tallies President Trump at 214 vs. Biden at 264, while CNN tallies President Trump at 213 vs. Biden at 253
  • The race has also been complicated by the threat of legal action with the Trump campaign reportedly considering legal action in several states
  • Asian equity markets were higher across the board as the region took impetus from global peers...
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US ELECTION UPDATE

As things stand, the outcome of the US election is finely poised: early doors, the ‘Biden playbook’ was seen, but as the former Vice President failed to take some of the key states he would have needed to in order to put the election to bed on the night (Southern states are still up in the air, while key state Florida is too close to be called), there was a shift in betting markets which pivoted and began pricing Trump as favorite to retain the Presidency. However, even that impulse...

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