Newsquawk

Blog

  • US President Trump flagged the release of at least 7 tariff letters today. Reports that the EU is closing in on a temporary "framework" agreement, via FT.
  • European bourses began modestly firmer and have been grinding higher since, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; German autos bid on trade nuances, Basic Resources hit by non-US copper performance, Media lags after WPP
  • Stateside, futures are in the green and directionally in-fitting with Europe but gains are much more muted, ES...
Categories:
  • APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside where tariff updates remained in focus.
  • US President Trump said he will announce something on pharmaceuticals very soon and will be announcing semiconductor tariffs, believes the copper tariff will be 50%.
  • President Trump said the US is probably two days off from sending the EU a letter, which means a deal.
  • European equity futures indicate a slightly higher cash...
Categories:
  • US President Trump said the August 1st tariff deadline is firm, but he is open to other ideas.
  • European bourses began on the front foot, digesting the deadline pushback and reports that the US offered the EU a 10% tariff deal, via Politico.
  • Since, benchmarks have eased off best with the tone now mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%. Stateside, non-tariff updates limited, ES +0.1%.
  • DXY is giving back some of Monday's gains. AUD outperforms on a...
Categories:
  • US President Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and Thailand, with tariff rates ranging between 25%-40%.
  • Trump also warned against retaliation, although he also delayed the tariff deadline to August 1st - leaving room for negotiation.
  • APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains as participants digested the Trump letters; Wall Street closed lower.
  • RBA defied the broad consensus and instead...
Categories:
  • US President Trump said 12 nations will receive tariff letters on Monday (deliveries to start from 17:00BST). Also, threatened 10% additional tariff for those aligned with BRICS.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said letters to trading partners will notify them that if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels; tariffs to take effect on August 1st.
  • European bourses began the day with modest gains but action is tentative, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; ES...
Categories:
  • APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region cautious ahead of upcoming key events, including central bank announcements and the July 9th tariff deadline.
  • US President Trump said 12 nations will receive tariff letters on Monday (deliveries to start from 17:00BST). Also, threatened 10% additional tariff for those aligned with BRICS.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said letters to trading partners will notify them that if no deal is reached, they will revert to April...
Categories:
  • SAT: OPEC MEETING
  • MON: German Industrial Output (May), Swedish CPIF Flash (Jun), EZ Sentix (Jul), Retail Sales (May), US Employment Trends (Jun)
  • TUE: RBA & RBNZ Policy Announcements, EIA STEO; German TradeBalance (May), US NFIB (Jun)
  • WED: "Liberation Day" Tariffs take effect (end of 90-day suspension), EU-US Tariff Negotiation Deadline (50% duty on all EU imports), FOMC Minutes (Jun); Chinese CPI (Jun), PPI (Jun), US Wholesale...
Categories:
  • US President Trump said they will start sending letters regarding tariffs and 10 to 12 countries will get a letter on Friday, with tariffs to range from 10%-20% and 60%-70%, while countries are to start paying the new tariff on August 1st.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said to expect a flurry of trade deals before July 9th and expect to see about 100 countries get a minimum 10% reciprocal tariff, while he added they are going to be announcing several deals.
  • US House...
Categories:
  • European bourses began the session firmer, but that strength has waned to more mixed trade; US futures similar into a packed agenda
  • DXY broadly flat intraday but with a marginal upward bias. G10s contained, but generally softer. GBP outperforms after Wednesday's post-PMQs pressure.
  • Similarly, Gilts lead fixed income. USTs await data. Bunds unreactive to Final PMIs.
  • Crude benchmarks softer, despite limited newsflow. Metals mixed, XAU off...
Categories:
  • APAC stocks failed to sustain the mostly constructive handover from Wall St counterparts with sentiment in the region cautious as participants braced for the key US jobs data and digested Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMIs.
  • Siemens confirmed it has been notified by the US Commerce Department that export control restrictions on EDA software and technology to customers in China are no longer in place.
  • US House Republicans were reportedly stuck and didn't have...
Categories:
  • European bourses in the green, shrugging off a mixed APAC lead. US futures post modest gains, RTY outperforms
  • USD attempts to atone for recent pressure. DXY eyes 97.00 to the upside, JPY lags, EUR and GBP both hit
  • Fixed in the red, Gilts lag after the UK Welfare Reform u-turn. USTs await data and fiscal updates
  • US House set to convene at 09:00ET, Punchbowl reports several sources expressing alarm at the number of no's from...
Categories:
  • APAC stocks were mixed following a similar handover from the US where participants digested data, trade commentary and a slew of central bank rhetoric.
  • US President Trump said he doubts the US will have a deal with Japan but will possibly have an agreement with India.
  • US Senate narrowly passed President Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill; House to vote by Thursday "at the latest".
  • European equity futures indicate a positive cash market...
Categories:
  • US Senate vote-a-rama is still ongoing, Thune suggests we are "getting to the end", unclear if he has enough votes
  • EU reportedly wants immediate relief in any US deal, said to be accepting universal tariffs but is seeking key exemptions
  • Risk tone began firmer after strong Chinese data; thereafter, deteriorated into and through the European morning
  • US futures in the red, ES -0.2%, awaiting updates on the Reconciliation Bill, Chair Powell and...
Categories:
  • APAC stocks began the new quarter mostly higher, albeit with gains tentative; Wall Street closed higher.
  • The Senate vote-a-rama process is ongoing before a final version is sent back to the House to approve the bill, before then sending it to Trump's desk.
  • EU is to accept Trump’s universal tariff but seeks key exemptions and wants the US to commit to lower rates on key sectors, according to Bloomberg.
  • European equity futures indicate an...
Categories:
  • A firmer start to the week Stateside, ES +0.4%, as markets focus on the progress of Trump's Bill; however, Europe is more contained, Stoxx 600 +0.1%, as the reciprocal deadline nears.
  • US Senate voted to begin debating the Reconciliation Bill; vote-a-rama not expected to start until 09:00ET today, as such the House will not vote until Wednesday at the earliest, via Fox's Pergram.
  • DXY has kicked off week-, month-, quarter- & H1-end on a mildly...
Categories:
  • APAC stocks began the week mostly in the green following last Friday's record highs on Wall St; participants digested a slew of data including mixed Chinese PMIs.
  • US and Canada agreed to resume negotiations with a view towards reaching a deal by July 21st after Canada rescinded the Digital Services Tax.
  • The Senate is set to vote on Trump's sweeping tax cut and spending bill on Monday following a 51-49 vote to open the debate on the...
Categories:
  • MON: Japanese Industrial Output (May), Chinese Official PMIs (Jun), German Retail Sales (May), German/Italian Prelim CPI (Jun)
  • TUE: Japanese Tankan (Q2), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI (Jun), German Unemployment (Jun), EZ HICP Flash (Jun), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun),
  • WED: NBP Policy Announcement; US Challenger Layoffs (Jun), ADP (Jun), EZ Unemployment (May)
  • THU: Chinese...
Categories:
  • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that several deals will be announced in the coming week, with the Europe deal expected at the end.
  • Punchbowl reports that Republican Senators say voting on the Reconciliation Bill will not begin until Saturday at the absolute earliest.
  • European bourses benefit from a flurry of US-EU trade updates, US futures gain modestly into PCE.
  • DXY extends its losing streak for a fifth session as PCE...
Categories:
  • US President Trump said he just signed a deal with China on Wednesday; it was later clarified that the US and China have agreed to an additional understanding to implement the Geneva agreement.
  • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that several deals will be announced in the coming week, with the Europe deal expected at the end.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said Tehran is assessing whether diplomacy with the US is in its interest, adding that there is currently...
Categories:
  • US President Trump may accelerate the announcement of a successor to Fed Chair Powell, according to WSJ sources.
  • Chinese state planner official said with policy implementation and introduction, "we are confident and capable of minimising the adverse impacts from external shock", according to Reuters.
  • Micron (MU) said there may have been some tariff-related pull-ins by certain customers; customer inventory levels have been healthy overall across end...
Categories:
  • APAC stocks traded mixed in choppy fashion following a similar session on Wall Street, with overnight newsflow relatively light as Israel and Iran seemingly continued to observe the ceasefire.
  • US President Trump may accelerate the announcement of a successor to Fed Chair Powell, according to WSJ sources.
  • Chinese state planner official said with policy implementation and introduction, "we are confident and capable of minimising the adverse impacts from external...
Categories:
  • Fox's Gasparino posted that Team Trump said it was close to announcing a handful of trade deals. The major ones the White House claimed progress on involved Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.
  • European bourses are mixed in quiet newsflow whilst US futures hold around the unchanged mark.
  • USD looks to claw back recent losses. EUR/USD pulls back from multi-year high.
  • USTs await Powell part 2 and details from the NATO summit; Bunds are pressured...
Categories:
  • APAC stocks traded stronger following the firm lead from Wall Street, with gains capped as traders were cautious amid the fragility of the Israel-Iran ceasefire.
  • Geopolitical newsflow was relatively light in APAC hours, with no hostile incidents seen between Israel and Iran; “There have been no [US] sanctions lifted on Iran,” said Fox Business' Lawrence, in reference to President Trump's post suggesting China could continue to buy oil from Iran.
  • Fed Chair...
Categories:
  • Sentiment bolstered after US President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, effective 05:00 BST / 00:00 EDT.
  • Though Israel claimed Iran had launched ballistic missiles and violated the agreement, which Iran has denied.
  • USD softer as geopolitical premium recedes, attention now turns to Fed Chair Powell who testifies before the House.
  • Bonds hold a bearish bias given latest Iran-Israel ceasefire; USTs are lower by a...
Categories:
  • Risk was supported on Wall Street following Iran's "symbolic" strike on a US base in Qatar—de-escalatory in nature, given the clear effort to minimise casualties and collateral damage.
  • Sentiment was further bolstered at the resumption of futures trading after US President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, effective 05:00 BST.
  • Israeli strikes were continuous as markets headed into Iran's proposed ceasefire time (01:30 BST) vs Trump's...
Categories: