Newsquawk

Blog

  • European bourses are flat/mixed at present, as focus switches to today’s ECB meeting
  • French Finance Minister Le Maire says they have reached an agreement with the US regarding the basis for digital tax discussions at next week's OECD
  • US is preparing for a longer and more wide-spread campaign to exclude Huawei from 5G cellular networks globally
  • Norges Bank left rates unchanged at 1.5% as expected, with AUD outperforming a firmer USD post-AUS...
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  • Asian equity markets weakened following the indecisive performance on Wall St where stocks finished relatively flat after a pullback from record highs
  • China confirmed 571 total cases of the new coronavirus, the number of deaths from the virus was reported at 17
  • The EU withdrawal agreement bill concluded its parliamentary stages and has been sent to the Queen, as expected
  • Calls for an RBA rate cut next month have been pared back after the latest jobs report showed a firmer than expected employment...
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  • European bourses are firmer, but off of session highs, as focus turns to Davos programming
  • Coronavirus cases have risen to 440 with the death toll now at 9; US President Trump stated the US case is under control
  • EU is reportedly preparing to offer the UK a trade deal on tougher terms than its deals with other leading trade partners
  • Sterling outperforms on firmer CBI data for January while G10 peers are mostly little changed vs. USD
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI, US Existing...
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  • Asian equity markets gradually improved and shrugged off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, Mainland China underperformed  
  • Coronavirus cases have risen to 440 with the death toll now at 9; US Center for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first case in the US  
  • EU is reportedly preparing to offer the UK a trade deal on tougher terms than its deals with other leading trade partners  
  • In FX, DXY traded slightly firmer,...
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  • European bourses are subdued this morning, in a continuation of APAC trade
  • 291 cases of Coronavirus have now been confirmed by China (as of Jan 20th), according to State media
  • US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says, with the Phase One China deal in place the Phase Two deal would not necessarily lead to the removal of all tariffs; could be done sequentially along the way, WSJ
  • UK labour market data was firmer than expected, though expectations for a January BoE remain around 60%
  • BoJ kept rates and...
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  • Asian equity markets weakened across the board following a non-existent handover from their peers on Wall St
  • China confirmed 224 coronavirus cases so far and a 4th death from the outbreak. WHO called an emergency meeting amid the spread to more cities
  • BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged as expected with NIRP maintained at -0.1% and 10yr JGB yield target at around 0%, while reaffirming forward guidance
  • US President Trump spoke with French President Macron in which they agreed to pursue talks...
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MON: PBoC Loan Prime Rate Setting, Japanese Industrial Output, German PPI, Indonesian Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision, Huawei CFO Extradition Hearing begins, Eurogroup Meeting, Martin Luther King Day

TUE: World Economic Forum in Davos Begins (21st-24th January), BoJ Monetary Policy Decision, UK Labour Market Report, German ZEW, Eurozone Economic Sentiment, Canadian Manufacturing Sales

WED: BoC Monetary Policy Decision, Canadian CPI, South African CPI, Japanese...

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  • Most major Asia-Pac indices began the week higher as the global rally just about remained intact following another record finish last Friday on Wall St
  • PBoC kept the Loan Prime Rate unchanged at 4.15% vs. forecasts for a 5bps cut
  • UK Chancellor Javid urged UK companies forget about being closely aligned to the EU post-Brexit and adjust to the new reality
  • Crude markets supported by supply disruptions in Libya after Libya's National Oil Corp. declared a force majeure
  • Looking ahead, highlights...
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  • European bourses are firmer this morning, continuing the positive tone from APAC hours
  • Sterling lags and Gilts lead core debt peers after dismal UK retail sales
  • White House officials confirmed they are planning election year stimulus which will focus on tax reductions
  • Chinese GDP printed in-line with exp. with IP and retail sales topping estimates
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, JOLTS, Uni. Of Michigan, Baker Hughes, Fed’s Harker,...
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  • Asian equity markets traded mostly positive after taking impetus from another record-setting session on Wall St.
  • Chinese GDP printed in-line with expectations, whilst both Industrial Production and Retail Sales topped estimates
  • China’s Global Times noted comments from an expert who suggested that China could demand that the US roll back all tariffs prior to phase two talks
  • DXY was relatively flat and held near the prior day’s highs, while its major counterparts were indecisive
  • Looking ahead,...
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  • European equities are little changed at present, as newsflow has slowed since the Phase One signing
  • Chinese VP Liu He says it is unwise to rush into the Phase Two negotiations, stating Beijing has little interest in immediately doing so
  • US Senate Majority Leader McConnell said the impeachment trial will begin on Tuesday and the Senate will complete USMCA trade deal today
  • USD is slightly softer as antipodeans benefit on the trade deal, other G10 currencies little changed/mixed at...
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  • Asian equity markets traded mostly higher but with gains capped as the euphoria from the US-China Phase 1 trade deal signing dissipated
  • The deal was caveated by China’s commitment to purchase agricultural goods “based on market conditions” and potential for China to exit the deal
  • President Trump said he will visit China in the not too distant future to reciprocate for the Phase 1 signing. Work on Phase 2 will begin as soon as this one kicks...
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  • European bourses are mixed-flat in tentative trade ahead of the US-China Phase One Signing
  • US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that tariffs will stay in place until there is a Phase 2 agreement with China
  • Soft UK CPI and comments from BoE’s Saunders have seen market pricing for a January cut increase to 60%
  • Russian Energy Minister Novak states there are no plans to delay the March OPEC+ meeting
  • FX complex is similarly tentative while gilts are driving upside in debt
  • Looking ahead,...
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  • Asian equity markets followed suit to the cautious performance on Wall St amid trade-related headwinds
  • Tariffs on China will remain until after the US election despite a Phase 1 deal, according to sources
  • US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that tariffs will stay in place until there is a Phase 2 agreement with China
  • OPEC+ is mulling the delay of its March meeting to June and could extend output cuts until then if so, according to reports citing sources
  • Looking ahead, highlights include...
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  • European bourses are relatively unchanged in choppy trade on quiet newsflow in European hours
  • US Treasury removed China from the currency manipulator list, said China made enforceable commitments to refrain from competitive devaluation in the Phase 1 deal
  • US-China Phase 1 deal will include pledge by China to buy USD 200bln of US goods over a 2-year period
  • Chinese trade date showed a sizable increase in the trade balance, albeit this did miss (USD-denominated) expectations
  • USD is firmer but...
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  • European equities are mixed, but overall little changed, this morning; aside from the FTSE 100 on currency effects
  • US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that China’s commitments in Phase 1 deal were not changed during the lengthy translation process
  • BoE’s Vlieghe becomes the latest MPC member to come out in support of a potential rate cut if data does not improve; subsequently, UK GDP Estimate (Nov) printed below expectations
  • As such, GBP is...
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  • Asian equity markets began the week somewhat mixed with the region indecisive ahead of the US-China Phase 1 deal signing
  • US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that China’s commitments in Phase 1 deal were not changed during the lengthy translation process
  • BoE’s Vlieghe becomes the latest MPC member to come out in support of a potential rate cut if data does not improve
  • Iran admitted that it accidentally shot down the Ukraine passenger jet in which it alleged that the airliner took the flying posture...
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  • European bourses are little changed, as newsflow slows with NFP ahead
  • US President Trump said he thinks the US-China Phase One deal will be signed on January 15th or shortly after
  • China Global Times tweeted that a Phase Two trade deal after November is too far away
  • USD is firmer this morning, with GBP briefly dented by comments from BoE’s Tenreyro
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Jobs Reports

GEOPOLITICS

Israeli Air Force jets...

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10th January 2020

·       Rockets reportedly landed near the Balad military base north of Baghdad, which houses US troops, according to Iraqi police

·       US government officials are now confident the Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 was shot down by an Iranian missile, citing satellite data

·       US President Trump said he might want to wait till after the election to complete Phase...

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  • European bourses are firmer, as markets return to risk-on following the Middle-East de-escalation
  • Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commander states that Iran will take 'harsher revenge soon' following on from the missile attacks on US targets in Iraq., Tasnim
  • China and the US will sign the Phase One deal, which will occur on January 15th at 16:30GMT., Chinese Press
  • USD is outperforming G10 counterparts today, particularly GBP post-Carney
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Jobless Claims,...
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·       US President Trump confirmed no Americans or Iraqi lives were lost by the Iranian strike and added that Iran appears to be standing down

·       Two rockets reportedly hit Baghdad’s Green Zone near the US Embassy in Iraq with no casualties reported, according to Iraq military

·       Asia-Pac bourses traded with firm gains across the board after a positive handover from Wall...

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  • European bourses are softer, but not significantly so, in tentative trade ahead of US President Trumps update
  • WTI and Brent spiked overnight, with spot gold surpassing the USD 1600/oz mark
  • Iran has launched over a dozen ballistic missiles at two Iraqi air bases – Al-Asad and Erbil - which houses US and coalition troops; no US casualties at present
  • US President Trump tweeted "all is well", he acknowledged the missiles launched by Iran at two military bases in Iraq, "Assessment of casualties &...
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8th January 2020

·       Iran has launched over a dozen ballistic missiles at two Iraqi air bases, no US casualties have officially been reported thus far

·       Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp claimed the attacks, Iran threatened "more crushing attacks" should the US retaliate

·       US President Trump tweeted "all is well…Assessment of casualties & damages taking place...

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  • European bourses are firmer as risk-sentiment strengthens on signs of a possible tempering of tensions in the Middle-East
  • USD remains firm ahead of ISM, while the AUD is weighed on post-data and with the ongoing environmental crisis
  • Iran is reportedly assessing 13 scenarios for retaliation against the US and is prepared to "come back to full compliance in the Nuclear deal"
  • US Defense Secretary Esper said the US does not have plans to pull out of Iraq
  • China-US Phase One trade deal is on track...
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·       US Defense Secretary Esper said the US does not have plans to pull out of Iraq, whilst a Pentagon spokeswoman said there is no change in US policy on its troops' presence in the country

·       Trump administration has begun drafting sanctions against Iraq, according to sources - but plan to wait on the decision to impose penalties

·       China-US Phase One trade...

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Suspected coronavirus in Scotland, UK, according to BBC reporter. NOTE: SUSPECTED https://t.co/zz3nFxC6An