29th July-2nd August 2024

• MON: Chinese Industrial Profit (Jun)
• TUE: Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jun), Australian Building Approvals (Jun), Spanish Flash CPI (Jul), Swiss KoF (Jul), German GDP (Q2), Prelim. CPI (Jul), EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Jul), US JOLTS (Jun)
• WED: FOMC Announcement, BoJ Announcement and Outlook Report, BCB Announcement; Chinese NBS PMI (Jul), Australian CPI (Q2/Jun), German Retail Sales (Jun), Unemployment...

• European bourses are mostly higher as sentiment improves after the prior day’s hefty selling pressure; US futures entirely in the green, with clear outperformance in the RTY
• Dollar is flat ahead of today’s US PCE, safe havens lag whilst the Antipodeans gain in a slight reversal from price action this week
• USTs are rangebound, EGBs softer with European specifics-light
• Crude is incrementally softer and just off best levels, XAU gains alongside...

• APAC stocks were mostly higher as risk sentiment in Asia improved with markets finding some composure following the recent sell-off and with some encouragement from stronger-than-expected US GDP data.
• Morgan Stanley commented to institutional clients on Thursday that computer-driven macro hedge fund strategies on Wednesday sold USD 20bln in equities and are set to shed at least USD 25bln over the next week after the stock rout, in one of the largest risk-unwinding events in a decade,...

• European bourses are entirely in the red after a slew of poor earnings; US equity futures are mixed and currently taking a breather from the prior day’s hefty losses
• Dollar is weaker vs safe haven currencies, whilst the high beta Antipodeans continue to lag
• Bonds benefit from the risk-averse mood, Bunds took a leg higher following weaker-than-expected German Ifo data
• Crude is at lows, XAU back below USD 2400/oz & base metals...

• APAC stocks were negative following the sell-off on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their worst declines since late-2022.
• The PBoC surprised markets with a 20bps reduction to the 1yr MLF rate.
• European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market finished with losses of 1.1% on Wednesday.
• DXY is softer vs. havens (JPY and CHF) but firmer against the Antipodeans;...

• Equities are entirely in the red, hampered by significant post-earning weakness in key companies; LVMH -3.5%, Google -3.2%, Tesla -7.4%
• Dollar is flat, safe haven pairs outperform, USD/JPY around 154.50, Antipodeans lag
• USTs are flat, Bunds initially propped up on dire German/EZ PMI releases but are now off best levels
• Crude gains, XAU is incrementally firmer and base metals are mixed
• Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, US...

• APAC stocks were mostly rangebound with a negative bias seen following the lacklustre handover from Wall Street after risk appetite was dampened by underwhelming earnings results.
• Alphabet (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), and Visa (V) fell 2.2%, 7.8%, and 3.3% respectively post-earnings, whilst CAC futures slipped following LVMH (MC FP) numbers yesterday.
• Reuters/Ipsos poll showed US Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican candidate Donald Trump 44% to 42% among...

• European bourses are mostly higher whilst US futures are mixed, with underperformance in the NQ following poor NXP (-9%) earnings.
• Dollar is softer vs the JPY but firmer vs other peers, USD/JPY as low as 155.83.
• USTs are caged within a tight range, Bunds are slightly firmer and surpasses 132.00 whilst Gilts lag.
• Crude is choppy and trading on either side of the flat mark, XAU benefits from news that India is to reduce import tax on gold bars...

• APAC stocks were mixed and only partially sustained the momentum from the tech-led rebound on Wall St.
• US VP Harris's campaign secured enough delegates to attain the Democratic Presidential nomination.
• European equity futures indicate a mildly higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.5% on Monday.
• USD is mixed vs. peers, JPY is the best performer across the majors, EUR/USD is...

• European equities are entirely in the green and reside near session highs; US futures are modestly firmer with slight outperformance in the NQ.
• US President Biden has dropped out of the Presidential race and endorsed VP Harris.
• Dollar is flat, JPY outperforms after catching a bid in early European trade, whilst the Antipodeans lag after disappointing stimulus efforts by the PBoC.
• USTs are flat and unreactive to Biden dropping out of the...

• US President Biden has dropped out of the Presidential race and endorsed VP Harris
• PBoC surprised markets by cutting its 7-day reverse repo rate by 10bps
• APAC stocks mostly began the week on the back foot after last Friday's selling pressure on Wall St
• European equity futures indicate a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market finished lower by 0.9% on Friday
• DXY is steady and in a...

Week Ahead 22nd-26th July:

• MON: PBoC LPR
• TUE: NBH Policy Announcement; US Existing Home Sales (Jun), Richmond Fed (Jul), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul)
• WED: BoC Policy Announcement & MPR; Japanese Flash PMIs (Jul), German GfK (Aug), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Jul)
• THU: CBR Announcement, CBRT Announcement; EZ M3 (Jun), German Ifo (Jul), US Durable Goods (Jun), GDP Advance & PCE (Q2), IJC (20th...

• Equities are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit amid ongoing worldwide IT outages, sparked by CrowdStrike (-14%) updates, which have impacted Microsoft (-2.2%) and Nvidia (-1%) services.
• Dollar is firmer, G10s are mostly lower, with slight underperformance in the Antipodeans given the risk tone, GBP slips post-Retail Sales.
• Bonds are pressured and trading within a tight range, having initially been boosted by the broader risk...

• APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the losses on Wall St where sentiment was dampened and the Trump trade was seen in play as President Biden's re-election chances dwindled further.
• Chinese senior party official for economic affairs said China's economic recovery is not strong enough and needs to implement macro policies more effectively.
• Several people close to US President Biden reportedly said they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may have to drop...

• European equities are choppy, Tech is lower in Europe and fails to benefit from strong TSMC earnings & guidance, but has helped to lift the NQ
• Dollar is firmer, AUD benefits on the region’s jobs data, GBP back below 1.30 post-wages
• Bonds are pressured ahead of the ECB; Bunds saw two-way action around the French & Spanish auctions
• Crude erases initial strength, XAU incrementally firmer and base metals are...

• APAC stocks followed suit to the tech rout stateside owing to the recent rotation play, concerns of China tech curbs and tariff fears.
• European equity futures indicate a slightly softer open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market finished lower by 1.1% on Wednesday.
• DXY remains on a 103 handle, EUR/USD holds onto 1.09 status and Cable is testing support at 1.30.
• CNN quoted a senior adviser stating that US President...

• European equities almost entirely in the red with sentiment hit following ASML earnings; results which has led to significant NQ weakness
• Dollar is weaker and slips to 103.70, carry trade unwinding seen with significant strength in JPY & CHF, GBP climbs past 1.30
• Fixed complex is rangebound, with Bunds underpinned but USTs capped near Tuesday’s best into supply
• Crude is incrementally firmer, initially catching a bid amid the weaker...

• APAC stocks were mixed despite the positive handover from Wall St, while China trade frictions and tariff threats clouded over Asia-Pac sentiment.
• NZD/USD was ultimately boosted despite the softer-than-expected New Zealand CPI data for Q2 as the attention turned to the 5.4% surge in non-tradeable consumer inflation; DXY struggled for direction.
• Former President Trump said the Fed should abstain from cutting rates before the November election and wants to bring the...

• European equities are entirely in the red; US futures gain, and with clear outperformance in the RTY
• USD gains vs NZD, AUD & JPY, EUR/USD reclaims 1.09 and USD/JPY holds around 158.40
• Bonds are higher following Fed Chair Powell's comments and with yields unwinding some of their Trump-induced steepening
• Crude resides at session lows, XAU gains and eyes its ATH and base metals are mostly lower
• Looking ahead, US...

• APAC stocks were mixed amid a quiet calendar and after the choppy but positive performance stateside.
• Fed Chair Powell acknowledged more inflation progress and that recent inflation readings added confidence in inflation falling.
• European equity futures indicate a softer open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed down by 1.2% on Monday.
• DXY is marginally higher with the USD mainly firmer vs. JPY, AUD and NZD, EUR/USD...

• European bourses are mostly lower, but sentiment has improved in recent trade; Burberry -15% and Swatch -10% both warn on China weakness; US equity futures gain
• Dollar is subdued but still holds just above 104.00, EUR/USD at 1.09 & the Kiwi lags
• Bonds were initially subdued in reaction to the assassination attempt on former President Trump, pressure which has since pared
• Crude is choppy and modestly higher, XAU holds onto USD 2400/oz,...

• APAC stocks traded mixed as participants reflected on the Trump assassination attempt over the weekend and a slew of Chinese data.
• Chinese GDP and Retail Sales missed forecasts, while House Prices further deteriorated but Industrial Production topped estimates.
• European equity futures indicate a negative open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.6% after the cash market closed up by 1.3% on Friday.
• Initial strength in DXY faded, EUR/USD sits on...

Week Ahead 15th-19th July:

• MON: Republican Convention, Holiday: Japanese Marine Day, Eurogroup Meeting, Eurogroup Informal meeting of Energy Ministers; Chinese GDP (Q2), Industrial Output/Retail Sales (Jun), Swiss PPI (Jun), US NY Fed Manufacturing (Jul), EZ Industrial Production (Jun); China's Third Plenum (15-18th July)
• TUE: Republican Convention; German Wholesale Price Index (Jun), ZEW (Jul), EZ Trade Balance (May), US Export /Import Prices (Jun), Retail...

• European bourses are entirely in the green, US futures are mixed with the ES and NQ flat whilst the RTY continues to outperform
• Dollar is flat having erased earlier gains, USD/JPY back below 160 after choppy trade overnight
• Bonds are pressured giving back some of the post-CPI strength
• Crude is firmer and resides near session highs, XAU lower and base metals are mixed
• Looking ahead, US PPI, Uni. of Michigan Prelim.,...

• APAC stocks took their cues from the mixed performance stateside where softer-than-expected CPI data boosted Fed rate cut bets and spurred a stock rotation out of large-cap tech into small-cap cyclicals.
• DXY found some slight reprieve following yesterday's selling, USD/JPY swung between gains and losses in volatile trade; Nikkei said the BoJ likely conducted rate checks in EUR/JPY today.
• Fed's Daly (voter) said it is likely some policy adjustments will be warranted...