OPEN: Equities have opened rather flat, however RUT is lagging and opened in the red. Yield price action is choppy, we were a touch steeper at the open but it has been gradually paring with 10-year yield going flat, while the dollar is also flat, but off earlier lows. If the buck and yields were to start rising, it may hinder equity gains. The FOMC minutes and further Fed speak will be eyed later in the session, with particularly focus on any chatter relating to a tapering of asset purchases and some further clarity from some of the more hawkish Fed dot plots. Sectors have opened mixed, the majority are firmer with Utilities and Communication Services outperforming, while Energy is also a touch firmer. Materials, Industrials and Health Care are the laggards with Materials hit by a fall in gold and silver. The relatively mundane open has seen both Value and Growth ETF’s open flat to slightly firmer. Elsewhere, the dollar is flat but off the lows, crude is choppy but a touch lower, precious metals are lower and the treasury curve is a touch steeper.
- SPX: 4120, 4114, 4104/08, 4100, 4086, 4057, 4034, 4021/20, 4011, 3993
- NDX: 14000/10, 13880, 13805, 13700/15, 13660, 13550, 13420, 13330/275, 13165, 13090/80
- RUT: 2329, 2312/18, 2294/98, 2276/81, 2268, 2254, 2244, 2223/21, 2210/06, 2200/2197
- Levels via Credit Suisse
- FED: Fed commentary remains rather cautious even after the strong March jobs report, Fed’s Kaplan (2022 dot, 2023 voter) said it is not the time for the central bank to pull back on its support for the economy, but paring stimulus when the economy meet’s the Fed’s goals will be important to keep the recovery on track. Kaplan expects 6.5% growth this year, in fitting with the Fed’s median view. Evans (voter) affirmed the dovish tone, noting achieving their goals might prove to be more difficult and there is still a way to go before its dual mandate is achieved. Focus now lies on the FOMC Minutes at 19:00BST/14:00EDT, a full preview can be found here. Meanwhile, Kaplan is set to speak again at 16:00BST/11:00EDT, Barkin (2021, 2024 voter) at 17:00BST/12:00EDT, Daly (2021, 2024 voter) at 18:00BST/13:00EDT.
- CRUISES (CCL, NCLH, RCL): US CDC says cruises could restart with restrictions by the middle of Summer.
- SPORTS BETTING (DKNG, PENN, MGM): New York Governor Cuomo confirmed the state will legalise mobile sports betting.
- Carnival Corp. (CCL) provided a Q1 business update; cash burn rate was better than expected, ended Q1 with USD 11.5bln of cash and short-term investments. Booking volumes for all future cruises during Q1 were roughly 90% higher Q/Q, Adj. Net loss of USD 2.0bln.
- Google’s (GOOG) Android advertising tool is the target of a complaint by Max Schrems, a French privacy activist, which accuses GOOG of breaching EU rules by failing to get consent from users.
- Samsung (SSNLF) provided a Q1 view; (KRW): operating profit 9.30trln (exp. 8.88trln), revenue view 65trln (exp. 61.53trln)
- Tesla (TSLA) announced cameras in Tesla (TSLA) vehicles are not activated outside of North America as it looks to calm China security concerns after the use of Tesla (TSLA) vehicles in military compounds was banned.
- Pfizer Inc. (PFE) arthritis drug is facing a probe from the Canadian health regulator after a trial identified an increased risk of serious heart-related issues and cancer in patients.
- Beyond Meat (BYND) is to open a new manufacturing facility in China, its first outside the US
- BlackBerry (BB) announced the BlackBerry QNX has been selected by Volvo (VLVLY) for its main domain controller in over 300k heavy vehicles.
- Snap (SNAP) will reportedly acquire ScreenShop application to fuel its shopping push, according to The Information.
- Xpeng (XPEV) is reportedly developing its own chip and is expected to tape out as early as year-end, according to CNEVpost.
The FOMC held the FFR target between 0.00-0.25%. It also enhanced its statement language to state a specific level for its asset purchases (USD 80bln Treasuries, USD 40bln MBS – unchanged levels) and removed references to buying at "the current pace", while also linking purchases to further progress being made towards reaching maximum employment and price stability goals. Notably, the Fed did not extend the weighted average maturities of its purchases (analysts judged the chances as 50/50 going into the meeting), with some suggesting that a January decision may be more appropriate, allowing the Fed to see how the pandemic's resurgence and fiscal stimulus plays out. Meanwhile, its forecasts saw near-term GDP upgraded, but 2023 onwards (including the long-term) was lowered; the unemployment rate projections were lowered across the forecast horizon, and the long-term dot was unchanged. The core inflation profile was lowered in 2020, but upped for 2021 and 2022, although interestingly, the longer-term inflation dots remained unchanged. To download the full report, please click here
If you would like to subscribe to receive the research sheets directly in your inbox, you can now do so under the Research Suite section of the portal. To subscribe simply check the box next to "Email these reports" under the desired category.
NOTE: This preview was initially posted on Tuesday 5th January