• Bourses in Europe extended on the losses seen at the cash open and trade lower across the board
  • US equity futures have also been hit in tandem with the surge in global yields; NQ underperforms
  • US 10yr yield rose further above 1.50%, the 20yr topped 2.00% and the UK 10yr hit 1.00% for the first time since March 2020
  • Advances in the crude complex saw Brent Nov contract reach USD 80/bbl, although volume and open interest has migrated to...
  • SUN: JMMC meeting
  • MON: Japan GDP
  • TUE: RBA mins, US/Japan trade talks
  • WED: FOMC mins, Japan trade balance, UK CPI
  • THU: ECB mins, SARB, EZ flash PMI, German Ifo
  • FRI: Japan CPI, US durable goods, UK retail sales, Trump to visit Japan
  • SUN: European Parliamentary Election Results
  • Expectations unanimously are set on an unchanged rate of 0.75%, with focus set on the accompanying statement
  • HSBC cite lower global rate expectations as one of the major stumbling points for the Norges Bank’s rate path
  • ING do not believe that this will be enough to stop the March hike amid recovering oil prices and the prosperous local economy.
  • Bank of England expected to lift its base rate by 25bps from 0.50% to 0.75%; vote split expected to be 7-2
  • Recent UK data points and MPC rhetoric has lead to markets pricing in a circa 80-90% chance of a hike
  • Little in the way of material changes are expected for inflation and growth forecasts with the economy having developed largely in-fitting with the MPC’s expectations


After what has been a complex year thus far for the Old Lady,...

  • Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
  • Not much in the way of fireworks expected given last month’s policy adjustments
  • Draghi likely to be mindful of trade tensions and grilled on timing of rate lift-off  


PREVIOUS MEETING: Last time around, the ECB announced a reduction in monthly sovereign bond purchases to EUR 15bln/month, through the end of 2018 when it will end (current EUR 30bln/month...

Key Events

Sunday: Turkish General Election

Monday: German IFO

Tuesday: N/A

Wednesday: BoE Governor Carney speaks, US Durable Goods, Trade Balance

Thursday: RBNZ Rate Decision, German CPI (Prelim), US GDP (Final), EU Summit

Friday: Japan Labour Market, German Labour Market, UK GDP (Final), EZ CPI, US PCE, Canadian GDP (monthly)  

  • SNB is expected to stand pat on policy rate at -0.75%, with little change anticipated to the policy statement
  • The central bank is likely to reiterate its commitment to FX intervention in order to offset any unwanted appreciation of the “highly valued” CHF


The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, maintaining the Sight deposit rate at -0.75%, and the 3-month LIBOR target range between -1.25% and -0.25%. In recent...

  • Norges Bank to publish its rate decision and new economic projections at 09:00 BST
  • Rates expected unchanged
  • Growth, inflation profiles may be revised up
  • Central bank expected to stick to its hawkish stance
  • Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
  • Will the ECB unveil their blueprint for winding down their PSPP or will they ‘kick the can down the road’ to July?
  • Questions likely to be raised on the Bank’s view surrounding the latest developments in Italian politics
  • Macro projections likely to see oil prices curtail 2018 growth...