• Equities are entirely in the green and hold near session highs
• Dollar is flat and just above 105, NZD underperforms after the RBNZ kept rates unchanged but language struck a less hawkish tone
• Bonds are firmer ahead of US 10yr supply and another appearance from Chair Powell
• Crude was initially subdued following Chinese inflation data, but caught a bid on geopolitical headlines; XAU is incrementally firmer
• Looking...

• APAC stocks were mixed following the indecisive performance stateside where the major indices finished rangebound after Fed Chair Powell largely stuck to the script.
• DXY traded rangebound, USD/JPY continued its gradual upward trend, NZD was pressured after RBNZ, and CNY did not react to softer-than-expected Chinese CPI.
• RBNZ unsurprisingly maintained the OCR at 5.50% although its language was less hawkish as it added that the extent of restraint will be tempered...

• European equities are mostly lower, US futures are modestly in the green ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony
• Dollar is flat and G10s are uneventful vs the Dollar, though the Kiwi lags
• Bonds are lower, with focus today on Fed Chair Powell and US 3yr supply
• Crude is subdued and near session lows, XAU nurses recent losses
• Looking ahead, NFIB Business Optimism Index, Comments from Fed’s Powell, Barr & Bowman,...

• APAC stocks were mixed as the region only partially sustained the positive mood seen in the US where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extended on record highs.
• European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% on Monday.
• DXY lingers around the 105 mark, USD/JPY eyes 161 to the upside with FX markets broadly contained.
• Hamas said Israel's PM Netanyahu is placing hurdles...

• European bourses are entirely in the green, paring initial losses as markets digest the fallout from the French second-round parliamentary election
• French second-round election results pointed to a hung parliament in which the left-wing New Popular Front surprisingly won the most seats followed by Macron's centrists and with the far-right National Rally in third place
• DXY is incrementally softer & EUR scales back initial French-induced...

• APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region failed to resume the momentum from last Friday's dovish post-NFP reaction, while the weekend macro news flow was light aside from the French election results.
• EUR/USD was mildly pressured after the French second-round election results pointed to a hung parliament in which the left-wing New Popular Front surprisingly won the most seats followed by Macron's centrists and with the far-right National Rally in third...

Week Ahead 7th-12th July:

• SUN: French Election (second round)
• MON: CNB Minutes (June), Eurogroup Informal meeting of Competitiveness Ministers; Japanese Overtime Pay (May), German Trade Data (May), EZ Sentix Index (July), BoI Announcement, US Employment Trends
• TUE: BoJ Bond Meeting 9-10, EIA STEO; Australian Consumer Sentiment, Hungarian CPI (June), Mexican 12-month Inflation (June), Powell Testimony...

• European bourses have been tilting higher with the region benefitting from the removal of some political risk in the UK, Germany & France
• Stateside, futures pivoting the unchanged mark into Payrolls
• FX has seen a slightly softer start for the USD, weighed on by EUR & GBP; USD/JPY slips to near 160.50
• Fixed benchmarks generally firmer but only modestly so, EGBs unreactive to data and German fiscal...

• APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region followed suit to the gains on Wall Street where the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched fresh record closes once again heading into US Independence Day.
• Fed Minutes stated that most saw the current policy stance as restrictive and several participants said if inflation were to persist at an elevated level or rise further, the Fed Funds Rate might need to be raised, while a number of participants said that policy should stand ready to respond to...

• European bourses are higher across the board as the region catches up to the Wall St. handover and continues generally strong APAC performance
• DXY under pressure and holding near the 105.59 low with peers generally firmer as the USD continues to feel the weight of Powell's remarks and looks to the mentioned data deluge
• OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed to below 68bps at best, though is still circa. 20bps above pre-election levels; largely unreactive to...

• APAC stocks mostly took impetus from the gains on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record closes.
• European equity futures indicate a firmer open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% on Tuesday.
• DXY remains sub-106, EUR/USD has pivoted around the 1.0750 mark, USD/JPY is in close proximity to its multi-decade high.
• Bunds have edged mild gains, oil futures were supported by a large draw in...

• European bourses pressured despite a lack of fresh drivers with US futures softer ahead of Chair Powell
• DXY firmer and above 106.00, USD/JPY hit another peak of 161.75, EUR unreactive to HICP
• EGBs slipped incrementally on sticky super-core EZ HICP but remain near the unchanged mark overall, USTs slightly firmer
• Crude continues to climb while XAU pivots its 21-DMA and base metals lift marginally
• ECB's Lane said...

• France’s far-right won the first round of the French parliamentary election, according to estimates. However, expectations are mixed over whether they will secure a majority. 
• EUR is the best performing currency across the majors and OATS are firmer by circa 16 ticks and CAC 40 future +1.1%, with some citing relief over the potential lack of majority for Le Pen.
• European equity futures indicate a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +1.4% after the first round...

Week Ahead 1st-5th July:

• SUN: French Parliamentary Election
• MON: Canada Day; Japanese Tankan (Q2), Japanese, Chinese Caixin, EZ, UK & US Manufacturing Final PMI (June), German Prelim. CPI (June), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
• TUE: RBA Minutes (June), Australian & Canadian Manufacturing PMI Final (June), EZ Flash CPI (June), Unemployment Rate (May), US JOLTS Job Openings (May)
• WED: Riksbank Minutes...

• Price action in European equities has been choppy, but are ultimately mostly firmer; US futures are modestly firmer ahead of US PCE
• French assets underperform ahead of Sunday’s legislative elections; CAC 40 -0.4%, OATs -31 ticks, OAT-Bund yield spread above 84bps
• Dollar is flat after initially being boosted by JPY weakness & post-presidential debate
• Bonds are subdued following the Presidential debate which saw the odds of a Trump victory...

• 67% of respondents said Trump won the Presidential debate; 81% of registered voters who watched said it had no effect on their choice, 5% said it made them change their mind, via CNN.
• APAC stocks mostly higher heading into month-, quarter-, & half-end and following the positive US handover as attention turns to PCE.
• DXY strengthened as the betting odds of a Trump second term got boosted marginally, support also from USD/JPY eclipsing...

• European bourses are mixed whilst US futures are modestly in the red; Micron -5.5% after its results
• Dollar is slightly softer, Antipodeans outperform & USD/JPY holds around 160.50
• Bonds are modestly softer in a continuation of the prior day’s losses
• Crude & XAU benefit from the softer Dollar, whilst base metals remain subdued
• Looking ahead, US IJC, Durable Goods, GDP & PCE Q1 (Final), Banxico Policy...

• APAC stocks were negative amid this week's choppy tech performance with headwinds from higher yields.
• Fed Bank Stress Tests showed all banks passed, which paves the way for higher payouts.
• European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 0.4% on Wednesday.
• DXY pulled back below the 106 mark, USD/JPY remains above 160 and EUR/USD is stuck on a 1.06...

• APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance stateside where tech rebounded as Nvidia snapped its losing streak.
• European equity futures indicate a firmer open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed lower by 0.2% on Tuesday.
• DXY is caged in a tight range on a 105 handle, AUD boosted post-CPI, EUR/USD sits just above the 1.07 level.
• Australian monthly CPI data saw markets price around a 33% probability for an RBA...

• European bourses are hit following updates from Airbus and Merck; US futures mixed, with the NQ leading as NVDA (+2.2%) finds its footing
• Dollar is flat, with G10 price action also lacklustre in catalyst-thin trade
• Bonds are contained awaiting impetus from US data and a 2yr auction
• Crude is modestly softer benefiting from Dollar price action, base metals are generally higher
• Looking ahead, US Philly Fed...

• APAC stocks were mostly positive but with some of the gains capped following the tech underperformance on Wall Street.
• Nvidia (-6.5%) suffered a third consecutive day of losses and was down 13% from its peak last week.
• European equity futures indicate a weaker open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.9% on Monday.
• DXY is lacklustre with FX markets broadly contained, USD/JPY remains...

• Equities are entirely in the green, benefiting from a pick-up in sentiment in the European session
• Dollar is softer, EUR is the G10 outperformer, but was initially pressured post-German Ifo, USD/JPY around 159.60
• Bonds are mixed with USTs contained, whilst Bunds slip to session lows
• Crude is incrementally firmer, XAU/base metals benefit from Dollar weakness
• Looking ahead, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business...

• APAC stocks were predominantly subdued heading closer to month-end and US PCE data later in the week
• DXY rangebound just below 106.00, G10 peers generally contained with JPY subject to fresh jawboning
• Fixed income contained into today's German data and ECB speak; JGB futures softer
• Crude lacklustre with specific lights and unreactive to Netanyahu's latest remarks
• China and the EU have agreed to hold consultations on...

• MON: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German Ifo Survey (Jun), German Import Prices (May)
• TUE: Japanese Services PPI (May), Canadian CPI (May), UK GDP (Q1)
• WED: Australian CPI (May), German GfK Consumer Sentiment
• THU: Biden/Trump debate on CNN, Riksbank Announcement, CBRT Announcement, CNB Announcement, European Council, Chinese Industrial Profits YTD (May), EZ Sentiment Survey (Jun), US GDP Final (Q1)
• FRI: European...

• Equities are subdued amid a broader risk aversion following the downbeat EZ PMI data
• France, Germany and the EZ-wide figure all reported lower-than-expected PMI data, which has led to outperformance in Bunds and slight pressure in the EUR
• Dollar is incrementally firmer, USD/JPY went as high as 159.12 before paring back towards 158.80 following the European data
• Crude is rangebound, base metals suffer from the subdued risk...