Newsquawk

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  • European bourses are in the red as expectations for the ECB September meeting turns more hawkish
  • Stateside, futures are in the red with the NQ lagging slightly as yields lift
  • German regional & Spanish Flash CPIs spurred ECB pricing to a circa. 60% chance of 25bp in Sep., vs 50/50 recently
  • Broad debt retracement after Tuesday’s US-data inspired highs with EGBs leading post-data
  • Crude benchmarks at highs as Idalia...
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  • APAC stocks traded positively following the JOLTS-induced gains seen on Wall Street, although Mainland China waned throughout the session.
  • DXY was steady after the prior day’s slump, with the index finding overnight support near 103.50 while AUD was dented by softer-than-expected CPI.
  • BoJ Board Member Tamara said it is appropriate to keep easy policy now and he doesn’t expect the 10yr JGB yield to hit 1.0%.
  • European equity futures are...
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  • Equities are in the green despite fading just after the European open, further upside seen on Chinese sources
  • Multiple reports via State Media and BBG that China is considering rate-related action to bolster growth
  • Crude benchmarks print fresh highs on the above and as Idalia intensifies into a hurricane, gas deflates slightly after marked Monday upside
  • DXY continues to rotate around 104.00 with Antipodeans outperforming while the EUR fades...
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  • APAC stocks traded with an upward bias following the positive lead from Wall Street, with little in terms of fresh catalysts to dictate price action heading into month-end.
  • DXY was subdued after retreating back under the 104.00 mark in early APAC hours, while debt futures tilted firmer.
  • Chinese State media reports PBoC may cut banks' RRR earlier than expected to maintain reasonable ample liquidity.
  • Australian union said workers at Chevron's...
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  • Equities are in the green with fresh drivers limited and markets deriving impetus from APAC upside
  • DXY has dipped below 104.00 with peers generally contained, JPY near lows as Ueda underlines reasons to remain ultra-accommodative
  • Energy benchmarks firmer amid numerous NHC and Offshore Alliance updates
  • Bunds test Friday’s trough in a return to the bearish path of least resistance
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US...
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  • APAC stocks kicked off the week in the green, following a similar lead from Wall Street, whilst the focus overnight was on Chinese markets after Friday's stock support measures.
  • DXY was caged to a tight range above 104.00 after Friday’s choppy session, AUD outperformed whilst the JPY stood as the G10 laggard.
  • ECB President Lagarde on Friday said the ECB needs to set rates at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of...
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Week Ahead August 28th - September 1st

  • MON: Australian Retail Sales (Jul)
  • TUE: NBH Announcement, German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Sep), US CaseShiller (Jun) and JOLTS (Jul)
  • WED: Australian CPI (Jul), Spanish Flash CPI (Aug), EZ Sentiment Survey (Aug), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2), US ADP National Employment (Aug)
  • THU: ECB Minutes, Japanese Retail Sales (Jul), Chinese Official PMI (Aug), German Retail Sales (Jul)/...
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  • European bourses and US futures are modestly firmer but the overall tone is tentative pre-Jackson Hole
  • USD is bid but rangebound pre-Powell while EUR lags after dovish-leaning ECB sources, AUD outperforms as base metals lift
  • Core benchmarks continue to pullback with Bunds entirely paring knee-jerk upside to sources
  • ECB sources report momentum is growing for a pause as recession fears increase, via Reuters
  • Crude...
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  • APAC stocks traded lower following the weak handover from global counterparts after the Nvidia-related euphoria wore off.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Eurostoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed down 0.8% yesterday.
  • DXY has extended upside above 104 and is firmer vs. peers, EUR/USD sits on a 1.07 handle whilst USD/JPY has reclaimed 146 status. 
  • ECB's Nagel stated it is much too early to...
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  • Tech/NQ lead the equity space after NVDA earnings, +7.7% pre-market, as attention turns to Jackson Hole
  • USD has bounced from post-PMI lows, Antipodeans lag after recent outperformance & JPY unwinds recovery gains
  • EGBs/Gilts tested post-PMI bounds before running out of steam, USTs under modest pressure
  • Crude has turned positive and nat gas benchmarks are off lows after Chevron’s vote update; TTF remains markedly pressured...
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  • Nvidia rose 6.6% after-hours post-earnings after reporting solid Q2 profits and announcing an additional USD 25bln in buybacks
  • APAC stocks traded higher as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall St. and the Nvidia-induced rise in futures; ES +0.8%, NQ +1.3%
  • European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Eurostoxx 50 future +0.7% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% yesterday
  • DXY is contained on a 103...
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  • European bourses & US futures are firmer and back towards best as lower yields take precedence over European growth concerns
  • Germany’s PMI saw a marked contraction for services and a bleak accompanying GDP nowcast, input costs increased in the EZ for the first time in 11 months
  • USD benefits as EUR & GBP decline following dire PMIs while JPY outperforms as yields tumble
  • Mentioned data has trimmed the probability of ECB/BoE tightening,...
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  • APAC stocks traded mixed amid a slew of earnings releases alongside the latest PMI data from the region but with price action relatively rangebound.
  • Fed's Barkin (2024 voter) said the US economy could reaccelerate before inflation cools and he won't prejudge the outcome of the Fed's September meeting.
  • DXY gave back some of the prior day’s gains, albeit with price action contained ahead of flash PMIs and the Fed’s Jackson Hole...
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  • European bourses and US futures are firmer as the US tech-led rally reverberated into Europe
  • APAC trade was more mixed, though a late-doors revival occurred in Chinese-stocks despite limited catalysts
  • DXY continues to slip and nears 103.00 with Antipodeans benefitting from the risk tone pre-data while JPY gets respite from a stabilisation in yields
  • Fixed benchmarks have bounced firmly after Monday’s marked yield...
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  • APAC stocks traded mixed following a similar performance stateside where tech rallied.
  • WSJ's Timiraos tweeted that he believes Fed Chair Powell is unlikely to speak about higher neutral rates at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Eurostoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed up by 0.3% yesterday.
  • DXY is a touch softer but still on a 103 handle, EUR/USD is back above 1.09,...
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  • Equity bourses/futures have gradually improved throughout the morning after a contained European open
  • Action which occurs in limited newsflow and follows mixed APAC on a disappointing LPR adjustment which overshadowed support measures
  • Crude and nat gas are bolstered by supply-side updates via the NHC and on Australian LNG
  • USD drifts in a contained start to the week, EUR eyes OpEx while the JPY is undermined by upside in US...
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  • APAC stocks traded mixed as the disappointment from China’s decision on its Loan Prime Rates overshadowed its recent support efforts; Hong Kong underperformed.
  • PBoC opted for a narrower-than-expected cut to the 1-year LPR alongside a surprise hold on the 5-year LPR, which is the reference rate for mortgages.
  • PBoC and regulators met with bank executives and told lenders to boost loans to support the economic recovery, according to...
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Week Ahead August 21st-25th

  • MON: PBoC LPR, German PPI (Jul)
  • TUE: US Richmond Fed Index (Aug), New Zealand Retail Sales (Q2)
  • WED: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Aug), Canadian Retail Sales (Jun), US New Home Sales (Jul)
  • THU: Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium (24-26th Aug), CBRT Announcement, BoI Announcement, BoK Announcement, US Durable Goods (Jul)
  • FRI: Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium (24-26th Aug),...
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  • European bourses are once again on the backfoot as the downtrend in the equity space continues without much in the way of fresh drivers.
  • US equity futures are trading on the back foot as sentiment continues to slump, extending the downward price action seen yesterday.
  • In FX, DXY is resilient, JPY outperforms on yield dynamics, GBP lags following softer-than-expected UK retail sales, whilst the CNY saw the largest gap between the PBoC fixing and...
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  • APAC stocks traded mostly lower after the early reprieve from the recent global rout petered out
  • European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed down by 1.3% yesterday
  • DXY is a touch softer but still firmly on a 103 handle, EUR/USD remains sub 1.09, JPY leads the majors as USD/JPY pulls back from 146
  • 10yr UST futures extended on the rebound from yesterday’s trough as...
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  • European bourses trade on the backfoot after succumbing to the selling pressure seen Stateside and during APAC trade, while macro newsflow has been light.
  • DXY faded from best levels after extending gains on the back of broad risk aversion, EUR sees several large option expiries, AUD underperforms after the Aussie jobs report.
  • WTI and Brent front-month futures tilted higher this morning following APAC consolidation, with little in the way of fresh newsflow to drive...
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  • FOMC minutes stated that most officials saw "significant" upside risks to inflation and could require further tightening; account was otherwise balanced.
  • APAC stocks mostly suffered another day of selling and followed suit to the losses on Wall St, participants also reflected on several weak data releases from the region.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6% after the cash market closed down by 0.1%...
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  • European bourses trade mixed after opening after shrugging off mild broad-based opening losses with no obvious catalyst behind the move at the time.
  • DXY is softer and trades on either side of 103.00, T-note futures hold near overnight peaks, US equity futures are trading flat with a positive bias ahead of FOMC minutes.
  • GBP and NZD outperform, the former following hotter-than-expected UK inflation and the latter after RBNZ left rates unchanged but upped the OCR...
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  • US stocks closed lower with the S&P 500 closing below its 50DMA for the first time since March
  • APAC stocks were pressured following the declines on Wall St amid the broad risk-off mood
  • European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3% after the cash market closed down by 1.0% yesterday
  • RBNZ kept rates unchanged as expected and reiterated the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the...
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  • European bourses have been unable to hold onto modest opening gains, whilst there wasn’t a clear reason behind the pullback in global equities.
  • Stateside are trading on the back foot, with ES and NQ giving back some of yesterday's gains after overnight data out of China disappointed.
  • Fitch analysts warn it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), according to CNBC. 
  • China's PBoC cut its 1-year MLF rate...
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