FOMC PREVIEW (WED)

Ahead of the 'blackout' window, Fed Chair Jerome Powell had the opportunity to guide market pricing for the 18th September FOMC, but struck an upbeat tone on the economy, essentially signalling that he was comfortable with market pricing which is weighted in favour of a 25bps rate cut to 1.75-2.00%, as opposed to the more aggressive 50bps, which some members of the FOMC have called for (voter James Bullard argued a cut of that magnitude would help align rates with the market). No doubt,...

• Asian equity markets began the week cautiously as oil prices surged and geopolitical concerns heightened following drone attacks on Saudi refineries
• Disappointing Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, as well as this week’s heavy slate of central bank activity added to the tentative tone
• WTI crude futures surged briefly towards USD 64.00/bbl and Brent crude rallied by as much as 20% following the attack on the Saudi facilities
• US pointed the blame on Iran in which US President Trump...

• European equities are firmer this morning on positive US-China updates, though gains are relatively marginal
• China State Council will exclude some agricultural products including soybeans and pork from additional tariffs on US goods
• US President Trump said he would rather get a whole deal with China than an interim deal but suggested that he would consider an interim trade deal with China
• In FX, Sterling shines on DUP comments while EUR continues to strengthen post-ECB, albeit off of best...

• Asian equity markets traded higher as the positive tone rolled over from Wall St where the major indices edged mild gains amidst the improving trade climate
• US President Trump said he would rather get a whole deal with China than an interim deal but suggested that he would consider an interim trade deal with China
• DUP could agree to Northern Ireland accepting some EU rules post-Brexit as part of a deal to replace the Irish Backstop
• DXY is essentially flat heading into the week’s end on a quiet...

• US President Trump announced he is to delay the next round of tariffs on USD 250bln of Chinese goods to October 15th from October 1st
• China’s MOFCOM say Chinese firms have begun inquiring on prices for US farm purchases and China and US are in communication regarding high-level talks
• OPEC+ are holding discussions over whether to enhance compliance with oil cuts according to sources, though Russian Energy Minister Novak says its too early for the discussion on extending this to 2020
• EUR/USD remains...

     Asian equity markets were mostly higher as the region sustained the momentum from Wall St with the S&P 500 back above 3000 and the DJIA above 27k

·        US President Trump has delayed the next round of tariffs on USD 250bln of Chinese goods to October 15th from October 1st

·        Global Times noted comments that the postponement does not mean a big improvement as talks...

• European equities are firmer this morning supported by China releasing a US tariff exemption list, subsequently Commerce Ministry noted that certain agreements may be reached prior to October meeting
• US President Trump says Fed should cut rates to zero or less, and then US should refinance its debt
• Amazon (AMZN) are to be probed by antitrust officials in the US regarding their Marketplace platform
• Scottish Court has ruled that PM Johnson's proroguing of parliament is illegal
• Looking ahead,...

• Asian equity markets eventually traded mostly higher as the region shrugged-off the indecision from Wall St
• China is ready to sweeten deal by buying American goods in countdown to trade war talks according to SCMP sources
• UK MPs seeking to block a no-deal are reportedly examining ways to bring back a version of former PM May’s Brexit deal with a 2nd referendum attached
• US President Trump said he has removed National Security Advisor John Bolton and that he disagreed strongly with some of Bolton's...

• European indices are slightly softer but overall little changed as markets await a substantial catalyst ahead of Thursday’s ECB
• US President Trump reiterated that China wants to talk, and it was also reported that China is hopeful US can create conditions for trade talks
• USD remains little changed vs. G10 counterparts though SEK & NOK remain subdued on domestic factors
• Looking ahead, highlights EIA STEO, APIs, BoE’s Carney & Riksbank’s Ingves, US 3yr...

• Asian equity markets traded mixed, following suit from the indecisive tone seen on Wall St
• Chinese inflation metrics were largely influenced by a 10% increase in food prices amid the swine fever epidemic, PPI saw its sharpest contraction in 3 years
• US President Trump reiterated that China wants to talk whilst it was also reported that China is hopeful US can create the conditions for trade talks
• MPs scuppered PM Johnson’s attempt for a snap election just before Parliament began its 5-week...

• European indices are little changed and lacking direction thus far this morning [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%] ahead of a quiet slate for the day
• Sterling is strong ahead of today’s hectic UK Parliament schedule, which may well be the last until October 14th
• Apple (AAPL) and Foxconn have reportedly violated a Chinese labour rule through the use of around 50% temporary workforce in a Chinese plant during August
• Looking ahead, highlights include Norges Bank’s Matsen and UK...

• Asian equity markets traded mostly positively with gains capped by soft trade metrics from China and ongoing unrest in Hong Kong
• UK PM Johnson has reportedly drawn up a plan to legally sabotage a Brexit extension if MPs vote against holding a general election
• Saudi Arabia removed Energy Minister Al-Falih from his position and replaced him with Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud
• Fed Chair Powell provided a relatively upbeat view of the economy which suggested a lack of urgency for a...

• European bourses are little changed, having faded the post-PBoC RRR gains; while WTI & Brent are now experiencing a more pronounced price decline with NFP & Powell ahead
• PBoC cut its RRR by 50bps, effective as of Sep 16, will further cut RRR for some qualified banks, some banks will get an addition RRR cut of 100bps
• DXY remains within a tight range and major counterparts are mixed while European bonds continue to grind higher and away from their US counterparts
• Looking ahead, highlights...

• Asian equity markets traded higher after sustaining the momentum from Wall St. where all major indices rallied and the S&P 500 notched a 1-month high
• UK Labour Party will seek to delay an election until November after party leader Corbyn was warned he would lose if it were to be held sooner
• DXY was relatively flat overnight below 98.50, treading water heading into today’s NFP number
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial...

• European bourses are buoyed by the positive risk tone on US-China updates, though the FTSE 100 lags on Sterling strength
• China’s Mofcom announced US and China will hold trade talks early October in Washington DC & Commerce Ministry said this morning call with the US went well
• UK PM Johnson lost his attempt to call a general election, and the Benn bill is expected to complete its Lords passage by Friday 17:00BST
• Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, Initial Jobless Claims, Composite &...

• Asian equity markets traded higher across the board; Japan outperformed; Mainland China posted solid gains
• China’s Mofcom announced US and China will hold trade talks early October in Washington DC, US VP Pence said President Trump will continue to take a strong stand on China
• UK lawmakers passed the third reading of the bill to delay the Brexit, government said the bill will complete its passage through the Lords on Friday, UK PM lost bid for snap...

• Major European bourses are firmer this morning (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%) as sentiment is lifted on a number of ongoing political & macro factors
• Hong Kong Leader Lam has withdrawn the Extradition Bill, which has sparked some notable outperformance in the Hang Seng
• Fed’s Bullard said a 50bp cut would align with expectations and aggressive action is needed, while Rosengren said no immediate Fed action is needed if data remains on track
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Trade, Canadian Trade, BoC...

• Asian equity markets eventually traded mostly higher as headwinds from Wall St were eventually counterbalanced by regional data
• UK PM Johnson threatened a snap election after Parliament voted to approve a motion to seize control of Parliamentary time to try and block a no deal
• Italian 5SM members backed the formation of new government with PD following online vote
• Fed's Bullard said a 50bps cut would align the Fed with market expectations and that the policy rate is too high
• Looking ahead,...

• European indices are in negative territory as sentiment is subdued on reports that the US & China are struggling to agree a schedule for September’s talks
• RBA left rates unchanged at 1.0% and maintained their wait and see approach
• UK Parliamentarians return to Westminster as Brexit remains the key focus for UK assets
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Construction Spending & ISM Manufacturing PMI, UK Parliament’s return, vote on incoming ECB President Lagarde, Fed’s...

• Asian equity markets traded indecisively following the US holiday and reports the US and China are struggling to set a meeting for trade talks this month
• UK PM Johnson warned if lawmakers vote for another Brexit delay on Tuesday, there will be a vote for a General Election on Wednesday
• RBA kept rates unchanged at the record low of 1.00% and noted the global economy remained reasonable
• Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, UK Construction PMI, EZ PPI, US Construction Spending & ISM...

• Asian equity markets traded mostly negatively after the 15% US tariffs on about USD 112bln of Chinese goods went into effect
• UK PM Johnson reportedly issued an ultimatum to Tory rebels that they would be expelled from the party if they joined forces with Labour leader Corbyn to halt a no-deal Brexit
• In FX, the DXY was slightly softer, USD/JPY initially slipped to below 106.00 but then gradually recovered
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ...

• European indices are set to end the month on a high, as sentiment remains strong on a lack of fresh trade newsflow
• ECB's Lautenschlager says it is much too early for a huge package and APP is a last resort, largely echoing ECB’s Knot
• USD is firmer vs. most G10 counterparts while the Fixed complex paints a mixed/little changed picture
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Core PCE & Chicago PMI, Canadian GDP

ASIA-PAC

Asian equity markets headed into...

• Asian equity markets headed into month-end higher across the board after the tumultuous US-China trade saga took a positive turn
• UK House of Commons Speaker Bercow has reportedly been in contact with Tory rebels whilst on holiday this week regarding plans to stop PM Johnson from suspending Parliament
• In FX, DXY traded steady around 98.50, EUR/USD remains subdued, GBP/USD languished below 1.2200
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, EZ CPI (Flash) & Unemployment Rate, US Core PCE...

• European Indices are firmer this morning as risk sentiment was boosted by constructive US-China comments
• Recent optimism follows Navarro saying it is unlikely anything quick will happen with trade talks
• USD is mixed vs. its peers, while BTPs are firmer but off of peaks after Italian President Mattarella gave Conte a mandate to form a new government
• Looking ahead, highlights include, US GDP (2nd Estimate), Core PCE Prices & Initial Jobless Claims, Banxico Minutes, Fed’s Daly, supply from the...

   Asian equities traded mostly lower after failing to sustain the positive lead from their counterparts in the US

·        US President Trump said he could do a quick deal with China and be a hero

·        UK PM Johnson's Brexit advisor Frost reportedly told EU officials that the government wanted a deal and downplayed the prorogation...