• European bourses and US futures are modestly firmer with updates limited aside from numerous corporate developments pre-NFP
• AMZN +8.8% & AAPL -1.8% pre-market; Berkshire Hathaway reports on the weekend
• DXY is firmer but yet to lift above 102.50, Antipodeans outperform while havens pare some of their recent gains
• Fixed benchmarks dip to incremental WTD lows with the week’s bearish drivers still in play
• WTI and Brent are edging higher as we head towards the OPEC+ JMMC at 12:30BST/07:30ET
• Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, Canadian Unemployment, OPEC+ JMMC, Speech from BoE's Pill, Earnings from Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, in largely contained trade ahead of the US NFP report.
• Sectors are mixed with outperformance in Travel & Leisure amid strength in airliners and some gambling names, elsewhere Banking and Energy names are supported by yields and benchmarks respectively.
• Stateside, futures are a touch firmer and largely in-fitting with European peers, ES +0.3%; aside from NDP, participants are digesting the numerous after-hours results on Thursday including Amazon +8.8% and Apple -1.8%.
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• Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.

FX

• The broader Dollar and index trades on either side of 102.50 but closer towards the upper end of a tight intraday parameter thus far, underpinned by the upside in yields as US bonds remain under pressure.
• The antipodeans narrowly outperform in the G10 space, trading flat/firmer, after consecutive sessions of hefty underperformance amid a combination of the RBA pause, risk aversion, and softer data from the region. AUD could also be feeling some relief from reports that China's MOFCOM lifts anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley.
• Traditional havens give up some recent risk-induced gains in the run-up to the US jobs report, with little in terms of fresh newsflow to drive price action in recent trade.
• EUR and GBP are relatively flat against the USD and each other amid a light European calendar and quiet newsflow in the region. EUR/USD was unreactive to mixed EZ retail sales and the surprise and substantial growth in German Industrial Orders.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1418 vs exp. 7.1808 (prev. 7.1495)
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• Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

• Overall, comparably contained trade but bearish drivers continue to dictate action given an absence of fresh catalysts pre-NFP.
• As it stands, EGBs and USTs are pressured and at incremental lows for the week as the majority of price action remains driven by supply-side dynamics from the US.
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COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent front-month futures exhibit a slightly firmer bias as markets gear up for the OPEC+ JMMC and thereafter the US jobs report.
• Spot gold is trading sideways in the run-up to the US jobs report with the yellow metal contained within yesterday’s range (USD 1,929.19-1,937.79/oz).
• Base metals remain mostly subdued amid the indecisive mood but hold onto a bulk of recent gains as all eyes turn to NFP. 3M LME copper holds above USD 8,500/t but declined from a USD 8,686/t overnight high.
• OPEC+ JMMC meeting to start at 12:30 BST/07:30EDT, according to EnergyIntel's Bakr (previously guided for 13:00BSt/08:00EDT)
• White House's Kirby said the US is to continue working with producers and consumers to ensure the energy market promotes growth after the Saudi decision on oil production.
• Kremlin spokesman says we can not believe statements by the US of their readiness to facilitate Russian exports if Moscow returns to grain deal, according to Ria.
• Nippon Steel (5401 JT) executive expects it will take a long time for China's steel demand to recover.
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NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fitch downgraded from AAA to AA+ the ratings of certain categories of debt directly tied to the creditworthiness of the US or related entities, according to Reuters.
• Apple Inc (AAPL) Q3 2023 (USD): EPS 1.26 (exp. 1.19), Revenue 81.80bln (exp. 81.69bln), Products revenue USD 60.58bln (exp. 60.67bln), iPhone revenue USD 39.67bln (exp. 39.8bln), Mac revenue USD 6.84bln (exp. 6.37bln), iPad revenue USD 5.79bln (exp. 6.33bln). Shares in pre-market trade
• Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q2 2023 (USD): EPS 0.65 (exp. 0.35), Revenue 134.4bln (exp. 131.5bln) Shares in pre-market trade
• Click here for the US Early Morning note.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• BoE Governor Bailey said rates will have to remain restrictive and it is "too early" to see victory on inflation, while he noted the last mile of the inflation fight is to take some time, according to a Bloomberg TV interview.
• UK PM Sunak is considering skipping the annual gathering of world leaders at the UN, according to the Telegraph.
• UK Chancellor Hunt asked the FCA to carry out an urgent review on concerns around "debanking" and the government will determine whether further action is necessary based on the findings. FCA is to ask the biggest banks and building societies for data on account terminations and the reasons for them, while it will provide an initial assessment of account terminations by mid-September.
• ECB says median and mean underlying inflation measures suggest that underlying inflation likely peaked in the first half of 2023. Although most measures are showing signs of easing, underlying inflation remains high overall. *Persistent and common components of inflation appear to have started to decline for service. *
• A.P. Moeller-Maersk (MAERSK DC) Q2 (USD): EBIT 1.6bln (exp. 0.89bln), EBITDA 2.9bln (exp. 2.4bln). Forecast global container volume growth in a -4% to -1% range (prev. -2.5% to +0.5%), based on the continued destocking. "Overall, the environment for container trade and logistics services remains challenging. Currently, there is no sign of a substantial rebound in volumes in the second half of the year.".

DATA RECAP

• German Industrial Orders MM (Jun 2023) 7.0% vs. Exp. -2.0% (Prev. 6.4%); ex-large orders -2.6% MM.
• EU HCOB Construction PMI (Jul) 43.5 (Prev. 44.2)
• EU Retail Sales YY (Jun 2023) -1.4% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. -2.9%); MM (Jun 2023) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2%
• UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul) 51.7 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 48.9)

GEOPOLITICS

• Russian social media users reported explosions and gunfire near the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, while the Russian Defence Ministry later stated that Ukrainian forces attacked the Novorossiysk navy base with two sea drones and that the drones were destroyed, according to TASS.
• Caspian Pipeline Consortium says movement of ships resumes in Novorossiysk after drone attack.
• US Secretary of State Blinken said in the event of a return to the grain deal, the US will continue to make sure everyone can export food products safely including Russia. Blinken also stated they have not yet received a response from China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the invite to the US but expect to have an opportunity and fully expect Chinese counterparts to come to the US.
• Russian and Turkish Deputy Foreign Ministers discussed the grain deal, according to Bloomberg.
• White House's Kirby said the US remains concerned that North Korea will send munitions to Russia.
• US may put troops on commercial ships to stop Iran seizures, according to AP.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is under marked pressure in relatively narrow ranges which remain above the USD 29k mark given overall price action is somewhat tentative pre-NFP.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded mixed as most bourses in the region lacked firm direction after a lackluster handover from the US, while participants reflected on tech giant earnings and the latest PBoC support pledges.
• ASX 200 was rangebound as gains in the commodity-related sectors and financials were counterbalanced by weakness in defensives, while the RBA’s quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy provided little to shift the dial and reiterated that some further tightening may be required.
• Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses as an early retreat beneath the 32,000 level was met with dip buying which then petered out.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with gains led by the property sector after the latest policy support pledges by the PBoC which announced it is to rollout guidelines to support private firms and will expand debt financing tools, as well as implement differentiated housing credit policies.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC official said RRR cuts, open market operations, MLF and all structural policy tools need to be flexibly used to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system and they will guide banks to effectively adjust mortgage interest rates and support banks to reasonably control the cost of liabilities. Furthermore, the official said monetary policy room is ample and they will step up counter-cyclical adjustment, as well as reasonably handle the interest rate level to prevent capital arbitrage, according to Reuters.
• China NDRC official said China's economy is to keep stable, improving momentum in H2 and they will strengthen policy reserves to release huge market potential, while they will study a batch of policy reserves with greater intensity, according to Reuters.
• China's Global Times tweeted that Shanghai's securities regulator will conduct on-site inspections of securities companies such as Morgan Stanley Securities and Changjiang Financing Services as it targets employee management and anti-money laundering.
• US President Biden is being urged to limit further US investment in Chinese stocks and bonds ahead of an expected new order next week, according to FT citing US House China Committee Chair Mike Gallagher. It was also reported that the House China Committee Chair held out the possibility of a subpoena in the Blackrock (BLK) and MSCI (MSCI) probe if they do not provide "fulsome" answers about investments in blacklisted Chinese companies.
• China's MOFCOM lifted anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley from August 5th.
• RBA Statement on Monetary Policy said some further tightening may be required and the board considered hiking rates at the August meeting but decided the stronger case was to hold steady. RBA also stated that risks around inflation are broadly balanced but much depends on inflation expectations and inflation is moving in the right direction which is consistent with reaching the target by late 2025, while it added that tightening could provide some further insurance against upside inflation risks.