Newsquawk

Blog

Original insights into market moving news

PREVIEW: ECB Policy Announcement due Thursday 15th June 2023 at 13:15BST/08:15EDT

Analysts unanimously expect the ECB to raise the deposit rate by 25bps to 3.5%. Despite recent drops in Eurozone CPI and inflation expectations, President Lagarde has insisted that inflation remains too high. Market expectations lean towards another 25bps increase in July, with the ECB likely to continue emphasizing its data-dependent approach. In its previous meeting, the ECB slowed its rate hike cadence to 25bps. The Governing Council decided to cease reinvestments under the APP from July 2023, possibly to balance views between the dovish and hawkish members. Recent economic updates show a cooling Eurozone CPI, declining inflation expectations, and a technical recession marked by negative growth in Q1. Despite a contraction in the manufacturing sector, services remain positively inclined, leading to a composite reading of 52.8. Eurozone unemployment has fallen to a record low of 6.5%. Lagarde recently reiterated the high inflation status, promising a determined approach towards fulfilling the ECB's inflation mandate. Chief Economist Lane noted uncertainty over the terminal rate, indicating a gradual process of wage correction. Members express varying views, with some more hawkish voices suggesting additional rate hikes are needed and a more data-dependent approach after July. Dovish members recognize high inflation but urge caution in rate hikes, noting that the risk of inflation remaining above target has decreased significantly from the peak of mid-2022. Regarding future policies, the ECB is expected to maintain its data-dependent approach, with the next significant point of interest being the potential for a 25bps increase in July. For macro projections, no substantial changes to the growth profile are anticipated, but the ECB might present a slightly lower inflation profile, suggesting the bank is comfortable with current market pricing.

Categories: