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Euro Market Open: Positive but generally rangebound trade though JPY & AUD lag

  • APAC stocks were mostly positive albeit with most major indices rangebound amid a lack of fresh macro drivers.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed up 0.1% on Tuesday.
  • DXY is contained just above the 102.50 mark, JPY is the standout laggard in G10 FX, AUD a touch lower post-CPI.
  • Softer-than-expected Australian CPI data supported the case for the RBA to pause at next week’s meeting.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK, US House Financial Services Committee re. SIVB, Speeches from Fed's Barr, BoE's Mann, ECB's Schnabel and Supply from the US

US TRADE

EQUITIES

  • US stocks were lower with most of the downside led by large-cap names and underperformance in the Tech and Communication sectors as yields rose, although the losses in the broader market were limited amid the lack of significant market drivers and with a partial rebound seen heading into the close.
  • SPX -0.16% at 3,971, NDX -0.49% at 12,610, DJIA -0.12% at 32,394, RUT -0.06% at 1,752.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • US President Biden said the White House response to the banking crisis is 'not over yet', according to Reuters. Biden separately commented that he looks forward to talking with House Speaker McCarthy on the economy and debt, while he wants to see the full set of Republican proposals and hopes the House GOP can issue a budget plan before Easter recess.
  • US House Republican leaders may not pass a budget before the debt limit deadline, according to Punchbowl's Sherman.
  • US Federal Reserve Office of Inspector General initiated an independent review of the failure of Silicon Valley bank (SIVB), according to a spokesperson cited by Reuters.
  • First Republic (FRC) is reportedly not for sale, while it was noted that just four of its 270 brokers have resigned and others are seeking employment but may stay as the situation sorts itself out, according to FBN's Gasparino citing sources.
  • Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr’s testimony for the House hearing was identical to the Senate hearing.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks were mostly positive albeit with most major indices rangebound amid a lack of fresh macro drivers and heading into quarter-end, while Hong Kong markets outperformed as tech stocks surged on Alibaba’s plan for a six-way split.
  • ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in the commodity-related sectors and after softer-than-expected CPI data supported the case for the RBA to pause at next week’s meeting, although gains were limited by weakness in the top-weighted financial industry.
  • Nikkei 225 traded higher after Japan’s parliament passed a record JPY 114tln budget for FY23 and with policymakers said to consider lowering mortgage rates for families with children, while BoJ officials also stuck to the dovish script.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied with Alibaba front-running the advances in Hong Kong as its plan for a split is seen to unlock value for shareholders and has spurred some speculation that its large tech peers could follow suit, while the mainland lagged despite the PBoC’s liquidity injection as frictions lingered regarding Taiwan President Tsai’s planned transit through the US and after the Biden administration added five Chinese companies to the entity list for allegedly aiding China's repression of Uyghurs.
  • US equity futures (ES +0.5%) gradually extended higher amid the mild improvement in risk sentiment during Asia trade.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed up 0.1% on Tuesday.

FX

  • DXY traded within a tight range after the prior day’s losses amid a lack of major catalysts and with Citi's month-end FX hedge rebalancing flows point to moderate USD selling against all major currencies except the Euro.
  • EUR/USD took a breather from recent advances with upside in the single currency capped by resistance at 1.0850.
  • GBP/USD slightly eased back from near the best levels in almost two months albeit with the pullback only marginal.
  • USD/JPY climbed back above the 131.00 level and JPY-crosses also breached through the peaks seen earlier this week.
  • Antipodeans were mixed with AUD/USD lacklustre after softer inflation data added to the case for a pause by the RBA.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8771vs exp. 6.8780 (prev. 6.8749)

FIXED INCOME

  • 10yr UST futures initially extended on the declines from yesterday’s bear-flattening despite the recent strong 5yr auction and punchy comments from McCarthy who said there should not be blanket insurance for bank deposits and noted concern about the lack of progress on the debt limit, although prices later returned to flat territory after a late bounce.
  • Bund futures remained lacklustre after a brief retreat beneath the 136.00 level.
  • 10yr JGB futures shrugged off the recent weakness in global peers amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for over JPY 1.3tln of JGBs on top of its fixed-rate operations and with a further pick up seen late in the session.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude futures were marginally higher in an extension of the recent recovery for the oil benchmarks and with prices helped by the mostly constructive mood in Asia, as well as the bullish headline crude and gasoline inventories data.
  • US Private Energy Inventory (bbls): Crude -6.1mln (exp. +0.1mln), Cushing -2.4mln, Distillate +0.5mln (exp. -1.5mln), Gasoline -5.9mln (exp. -1.6mln).
  • US Energy Secretary Granholm said Strategic Petroleum Reserve buybacks could begin late this year and that work on two of four oil reserve sites are to go 'into the fall' which has delayed the buybacks, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Urals crude prices for April loading remained below the USD 60/bbl price cap, but at a smaller discount to dated Brent vs March volumes, according to trade sources and Reuters calculations.
  • Spot gold gave back some of the prior day's gains as the dollar found some respite from recent selling pressure.
  • Copper futures were subdued as risk sentiment in its largest buyer, China, lagged amid frictions with the US.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin slightly gained in rangebound trade with early momentum stalling on approach to the USD 27,500 level.
  • FDIC told Signature Bank (SBNY) crypto clients accounts are to close by April 5th, according to Bloomberg.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • China NDRC Deputy Director General said China's potential growth rate is the potential growth rate of the whole world and said they are optimistic for the growth situation for this year, according to Reuters.
  • US President Biden's administration added five Chinese Co.s to the entity list for allegedly aiding China's repression of Uyghurs.
  • Taiwan's President Tsai comments before boarding a flight to New York in which she noted Democratic Taiwan defends democratic values and external pressure does not affect their determination to go out into the world, according to Reuters.
  • China's Taiwan Affairs Office urged the US not to arrange a transit of Taiwan's leader through the US and said any meeting between Taiwan President Tsai and US House Speaker McCarthy would be a severe provocation, while it added that China firmly opposes this and will definitely take measures to fight back, according to Reuters.
  • US senior administration official said Taiwan President Tsai's planned transit is consistent with a long-standing US practice and the US sees no reason for Beijing to overreact to the transit which is consistent with the unofficial relationship and the One-China policy. The official added that every Taiwan president has transited through the US and President Tsai has met with members of Congress in all her previous six transits, as well as stated that China's attempts to alter Taiwan's status quo will not pressure the US to alter its practice of facilitating transits by Taiwan's presidents, according to Reuters.
  • BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said they will make a judgement on trend inflation by looking at various indicators, while he noted the BoJ would face an unrealised loss of JPY 50tln on its balance sheet if the 10yr bond yield rises to 2%, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian CPI YY (Feb) 6.8% vs Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 7.4%)

GEOPOLITICAL

  • Ukrainian military officials said Russian forces remain relentless in their attempts to take full control of Bakhmut and Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine but were not making progress, according to Reuters.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky extended an invitation to Chinese President Xi to visit Ukraine, according to AP.
  • US President Biden responded that he hasn't seen that but is concerned when asked if he was concerned about Russia sending tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, according to Reuters.
  • White House said the US has not seen any indications that Russian President Putin is getting closer to the use of tactical nuclear weapons and has seen nothing that could cause it to change its nuclear posture.
  • Russia has started drills with Yars Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, according to its Defence Ministry
  • White House said the US is willing to sit down with North Korea to find a way towards denuclearisation and has not seen any willingness on North Korea's part to sit down to try and deal with the issue.

EU/UK

  • UK Treasury Chief Secretary Glen said Britain has not seen bank deposit outflows amid the recent banking turmoil, while he noted that the UK banking industry is very resilient and he has confidence in London's bank regulators.
  • EU's Dombrovskis said the situation in the EU banking sector is stable and banks are prepared to withstand shocks.
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