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Euro Market Open: Wall St. closed higher amid a dovish repricing despite hawkish Thursday action

  • APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the recent bout of central bank rate hikes.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said they are prepared for additional deposit actions if warranted.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8% after the cash market closed up 0.3% on Thursday.
  • DXY is contained around the 102.50 mark, JPY leads G10 FX, NZD lags, other majors are steady.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, US Durable Goods, Speeches from Fed's Bullard, ECB's Nagel & BoE's Mann.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

  • US stocks finished mostly higher in what was a very choppy session as traders continued to digest the FOMC and remarks from Treasury Secretary Yellen.
  • SPX +0.30% at 3,948, NDX +1.29% at 12,729, DJIA +0.23% at 32,105, RUT -0.41% at 1,720.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said they are prepared for additional deposit actions if warranted and strong actions have been taken to ensure deposits are safe. Yellen stated they took action on SVB and Signature Bank due to the risk of runs that would undermine the security of depositors and compromise the US banking system, while she added they can use these tools again for an institution of any size, according to Reuters.
  • US House Republicans will offer a debt ceiling deal sheet to US President Biden.

CREDIT SUISSE

  • Swiss authorities and UBS (UBSG SW) are racing to seal the Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) seal as soon as late April, according to sources. It was also reported that UBS Wealth Management head Khan offered a retention package to Credit Suisse's Asia staff in Hong Kong town hall which focuses on stabilising the Credit Suisse Asia team and boosting banker confidence, according to sources.
  • Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) and UBS (UBSG SW) are among the banks facing a US Russia-sanctions probe.
  • North American Debt investors group credit roundtable decided not to take legal action after Credit Suisse's AT1 bond wipeout, according to Reuters sources.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the recent bout of central bank rate hikes and choppy performance stateside where Wall Street just about closed higher amid a dovish market repricing of Fed rate expectations.
  • ASX 200 was lower with risk appetite sapped by weak PMI data which returned to contraction territory.
  • Nikkei 225 lacked conviction after the latest inflation data printed mostly in line with estimates.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. retreated after the central bank drained liquidity and as participants digest earnings releases, while it was also reported that the US added 14 Chinese entities to the red flag list.
  • US equity futures (ES +0.1%) were kept afloat overnight as money markets pointed to 100bps of rate cuts by year-end.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8% after the cash market closed up 0.3% on Thursday.

FX

  • DXY was rangebound around the 102.50 mark following the recent price swings in the aftermath of the FOMC and as markets digested several data releases including a hot initial jobless claims print which remained sub-200k, but with headwinds from a dovish repricing of Fed rate expectations.
  • EUR/USD was stuck near the prior day’s lows after failing to sustain a brief foray above the 1.0900 level.
  • GBP/USD lacked firm direction after the indecisive post-BoE mood and alongside the flimsy risk tone.
  • USD/JPY extended its decline after a narrowing of yield differentials as markets anticipate a more dovish Fed.
  • Antipodeans were contained amid the cautious mood and with AUD/USD not helped by weak PMI data.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8374 vs exp. 6.8367 (prev. 6.8709)

FIXED INCOME

  • 10yr UST futures remained firm and held on to the gains from yesterday’s bull steepening.
  • Bund futures hovered around the prior day's best levels and were unfazed by recent hawkish ECB comments.
  • 10yr JGB futures were contained following the somewhat inconclusive Japanese inflation data and a lack of additional BoJ purchases.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude futures were subdued but off their lows with the oil benchmarks largely driven by the risk mood.
  • Spot gold traded sideways but held on to most of its post-FOMC gains and eyes the USD 2,000/oz level.
  • Copper futures lacked firm direction with price action restricted amid the cautious mood across risk assets.
  • LME said all warehouse operators have confirmed that they are satisfied with the integrity of the nickel underlying all warrants.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin was rangebound and took a breather from the recent ascent to above the USD 28,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • HKMA said Hong Kong has very little exposure to the European and US banking situation, while it needs to monitor the situation carefully for any further volatility but is not concerned about risks to the Hong Kong banking sector.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese National CPI YY (Feb) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 4.3%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Feb) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 4.2%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Feb) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.2%)
  • Japanese Manufacturing PMI (Mar P) 48.6 (Prev. 47.7)
  • Japanese Services PMI (Mar P) 54.2 (Prev. 54.0)
  • Japanese Composite PMI (Mar P) 51.9 (Prev. 51.1)
  • Australian Manufacturing PMI (Mar P) 48.7 (Prev. 50.5)
  • Australian Services PMI (Mar P) 48.2 (Prev. 50.7)
  • Australian Composite PMI (Mar P) 48.1 (Prev. 50.6)

GEOPOLITICS

  • Ukraine's top ground forces commander said Ukrainian troops are to launch a counterassault soon as Russia's large winter offensive weakens without capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev says cannot rule out that Russian forces will need to reach Kyiv or Lviv to 'destroy the infection', according to RIA.
  • US Pentagon said the US conducted air strikes in Syria which targeted an Iranian-backed group in response to a deadly UAV attack, according to Reuters and Wall Street Journal.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said sanctions on Iran have created a real economic crisis in that country and the US is constantly looking at ways to strengthen Iran sanctions but added that sanctions may not be sufficient to change a country's behaviour, according to Reuters.
  • China's Defence Ministry said it monitored and drove away a US destroyer which entered the South China Sea Paracel Islands on Friday again and sternly demands the US to immediately stop such provocations, according to Reuters.
  • North Korea said it conducted an important weapon test and firing drill from March 21st-23rd, while it added that it conducted a new underwater attack system in which it tested a new nuclear underwater attack drone and launched strategic cruise missiles. Furthermore, North Korea said its leader Kim guided the military activities and that Kim seriously warned enemies to stop reckless anti-North Korea war drills, according to KCNA.
  • South Korean President Yoon said they will step up security cooperation with the US and Japan against North Korea's nuclear and missile provocations, while he said they will make sure North Korea pays the price for its reckless provocations, according to Reuters.

EU/UK

  • ECB is likely to reassure EU leaders regarding bank stability on Friday and is to call for EU deposit insurance, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence* (Mar) -36 vs. Exp. -36.0 (Prev. -38.0)
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