• European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, though overall action remains contained/rangebound ahead of corporate updates/Fed speak.
• US futures are similarly rangy within tighter parameters with the main futures essentially unchanged at present.
• UNH beat on top and bottom lines, TSLA reportedly to cut prices on new US models
• JPY continues to climb and weighs on the USD, though the index has derived some support from EUR pressure
• Core debt has tested/eclipsed yesterday's post-CPI peak, with a smaller-than-expected TLTRO repayment providing further fleeting impetus
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Harker & Kashkari, Earnings from Blackrock, BNY  Mellon, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo & Citi.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, though overall action remains contained/rangebound ahead of corporate updates/Fed speak.
• Stateside, US futures are similarly rangy within tighter parameters with the main futures essentially unchanged at present.
• In Europe, the sectoral breakdown is mostly positive though Auto names lag given the Tesla price reductions.
• UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 5.34 (exp. 5.17), Revenue 82.8bln (exp. 82.59bln). FY EPS view 24.40-24.90 (exp. 22.03), FY Revenue view 357-360bln (exp. 323.82bln).; affirms 2023 objectives established in November.
• Goldman Sachs (GS) is making changes to its business segments from Q4 2022, from this period will report results in three business segments.
• Tesla (TSLA) Germany spokesperson says the automakers focus on product improvement enhances its ability to produce 'the best' products at industry-leading costs; has achieved some normalisation of cost inflation, gives it confidence to pass that relief on to customers. Elsewhere, Electrek reports that the Co. cut prices on new US models, with the Model Y now 20% cheaper.
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• Yen and Buck remain in lock-step as BoJ/Fed policy perceptions continue to converge
• USD/JPY eyeing 128.00 after breach of prior January low and DXY clinging to 102.000
• Aussie and Pound take advantage of Greenback's ongoing demise despite mixed data points, as AUD/USD approaches 0.7000 and Cable rebounds from sub-1.2200 towards 1.2250
• Euro firm on the 1.0800 handle vs Buck, but capped by virtual double top circa 1.0867-68
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7292 vs exp. 6.7295 (prev. 6.7680)
• CBRT Survey sees end-2023 CPI at 32.46% (prev. 34.92%), and is seen at 30.44% in 12-months (34.92%). End-2023 growth is seen at 4.1% (prev. 4.1%). USD/TRY rate seen at 23.1161, and the repo rate is seen at 13.65% in 12-months (prev. 14.86%)
• Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• Core benchmarks are firmer across the board, though Bunds are yet to eclipse their post-CPI peaks despite USTs and Gilts incrementally surpassing them as underlying bullish momentum continues.
• The latest ECB TLTRO allotment was a smaller than expected figure, and thus prompted a jump in Bunds; though, this was shortlived.
• BoJ to conduct additional long-term bond purchases on Monday, amount is undecided; to make nimble responses by conducting additional outright JGB purchases, accounting for market conditions.
• ECB TLTRO.III January 13th window repayment figure (EUR): 62.75bln vs exp. 213bln (prev. 447bln).
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• The crude benchmarks are on course to conclude the week towards the top-end of a USD 73.47-79.16/bbl range in WTI Feb’23, the peak of which occurred in the run up to Thursday’s US CPI print.
• Venezuela's PDVSA assigned a third crude cargo to Chevron (CVX) under the US authorisation that restarted exports to the US, according to Reuters sources.
• Spot gold remains above the USD 1900/oz mark, after reclaiming the figure for the first time since May 2022 in the post-CPI market action. Thus far, the yellow metal has essentially matched the May 2022 peak of USD 1909/oz with some way to go before the prior month’s USD 1934/oz best.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB's Kazaks sees no rationale for market bets on rate cuts, rates should rise well into restrictive territory.

NOTABLE DATA

• UK GDP Estimate MM (Nov) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.5%); YY (Nov) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.5%); 3M/3M (Nov) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.3%)
• Swedish CPIF YY (Dec) 10.2% vs. Exp. 9.9% (Prev. 9.5%); MM (Dec) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 0.7%)
• EU Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur (Nov) -11.7B EU vs. Exp. -21.1B EU (Prev. -26.5B EU, Rev. -27.0B EU)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed's Bostic (non-voter) said the US inflation report was welcome news and may allow the Fed to move more slowly. Bostic added he would be comfortable moving at 25bps if conversations with business leaders are consistent with slowing inflation and noted that signs of slowing wage increases are also positive.
• Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

• Russian Foreign Ministry said Russia-Belarus military drills are devised to discourage opponents from military escalation, according to TASS.
• Japan and the US reportedly approved the way to start planning specific ways to deploy counterstrike capabilities in their joint defence and foreign policy talks, including sharing intelligence from spy satellites, according to Nikkei.

CRYPTO

• US SEC is charging Genesis and Gemini for the unregistered offer and sale of crypto asset securities through the Gemini Earn lending program, according to CNBC.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly firmer following the positive handover from Wall St.
• ASX 200 was firmer with the advances led by the energy sector after this week’s rebound in oil prices and with sentiment also encouraged by a somewhat thawing of relations between Australia and China after officials in Guangdong received a notice from the local government to clear Australian coal shipments.
• Nikkei 225 failed to join in on the global upbeat mood with Japanese markets hampered amid a firmer currency and higher yields as BoJ watchers begun to expect a sooner-than-anticipated shift in policy.
• KOSPI gained despite a 25bps hike by the BoK which was expected and its statement made no reference to the need for further rate hikes, although Governor Rhee later suggested the door was open for future adjustments.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat after press reports outlined details of China’s support measures for the property sector but with gains capped amid a further deterioration in Chinese exports.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China is to issue further policies to support the housing rental market including a CNY 100bln housing rental loan plan, while China will increase financing to quality developers via loans and bond issuance. Furthermore, China's plan to improve developers' balance sheets mainly targets high-quality property firms of relatively large size and systemic importance, according to Xinhua.
• China's customs said foreign trade continues to face many challenges and difficulties this year, but added that the fundamentals of long-term improvement remain unchanged and the economy is expected to rebound as a whole.
• White House is to discuss export curbs on China with Japanese and Dutch officials although upcoming meetings will not result in immediate announcements, according to a source cited by Reuters.
• BoK raised its base rate by 25bps to 3.50%, as expected, although board members Joo and Shin dissented. BoK said GDP growth will be slower than expected and inflation is to slow gradually, while it noted that policy focus will remain on containing inflation and the statement made no reference to the need for more rate hikes. However, Governor Rhee later noted that the statements and comments do not promise rates will be kept unchanged in the future and he also stated that it is premature to talk about a rate cut.
• PBoC Vice-Governor says monetary policy will be appropriate, no flood like stimulus. Will take more measures to boost market confidence, financing for the property sector, particularly high-quality developers has shown improvements.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Trade Balance (USD) (Dec) 78.0B vs. Exp. 76.2B (Prev. 69.84B)
• Chinese Exports YY (USD) (Dec) -9.9% vs. Exp. -10.0% (Prev. -8.7%); Imports YY (USD) (Dec) -7.5% vs. Exp. -9.8% (Prev. -10.6%)