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US Market Open: Contained trade overall with updates limited pre-Powell at Jackson Hole

  • European bourses are currently contained, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, as initial price action eased with catalyst thin pre-Powell
  • Stateside, futures are under modest pressure, ES -0.4%, and the NQ -0.6% lags slightly given modest yield upside
  • DXY fades initial gains with EUR marginally back above parity and peers generally contained though NZD & JPY lag
  • Despite fairly pronounced ranges, around 100 ticks in Bunds, the general tone is tentative with benchmarks within WTD parameters
  • Crude benchmarks consolidate; UAE reportedly, via Reuters, supportive of the Saudi crude statement
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Personal Consumption/Income, Jackson Hole, Speech from Fed Chair Powell (15:00BST/10:00ET)

As of 11:15BST/06:15ET

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US PCE Price Index, Personal Consumption/Income, Jackson Hole, Speech from Fed Chair Powell (15:00BST/10:00ET)
  • Click here for the Jackson Hole schedule/primers.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

  • Turkish Defence Minister says discussions with the US on F-16s are positive and thinks the purchase will take place, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Swedish EU affairs minister doesn't think that the council will decide to open EU accession talks with Ukraine & Moldova during the Swedish EU presidency in the 1st half of 2023, according to a journalist on Twitter.
  • Representative of Russia to the IAEA says intensive preparations are under way for the visit of the IAEA mission to the Ukrainian Zaporizhia nuclear plant, according to Sky News Arabia.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are currently contained, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, as initial price action eased with catalyst thin pre-Powell.
  • Stateside, futures are under modest pressure, ES -0.4%, and the NQ -0.6% lags slightly given modest yield upside.
  • US Chip software producer Synopsys is set to expand into Vietnam amid the Chinese tech war, according to the Nikkei.
  • Panasonic (6752 JT) says they are considering various EV battery business strategies, nothing decided yet.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY fades earlier gains but trades within a 108.25-75 range throughout the morning.
  • EUR outperforms and has been resilient as EUR/USD sees large OpEx above parity.
  • GBP, AUD, CHF, and CAD are all relatively flat vs the Buck, whilst NZD and JPY lag.
  • Click herefor more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9850 (536M), 1.0000-10 (2.0BLN), 1.0050-55 (1.08BLN), 1.0150 (1.75BLN)
  • USD/JPY: 135.00 (360M), 137.00-10 (1.3BLN)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Despite fairly pronounced ranges, over 100 ticks in Bunds, the general tone is tentative with benchmarks within WTD parameters.
  • USTs are pressured, with yields elevated and the curve bear-steepening but, again, well within recent ranges.
  • SONIA strip takes a slight dovish skew, though Gilts unfased, following the as-expected Ofgem cap announcement.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent October contracts are consolidating following yesterday's slide in prices.
  • Spot gold resides around USD 1,750/oz after dipping under its 10 DMA (USD 1,756.60/oz)
  • Base metals are mixed but copper prices remain supported and reside around USD 8,250/t.
  • UAE is supportive of the latest statement from Saudi Arabia on crude markets, via Reuters citing sources.
  • Four ships loaded with grain are leaving Ukrainian ports and another five ships are arriving for loading, according to Al Jazeera citing the Turkish Defense Ministry.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Ofgem UK Energy Price Cap – Q4 2022 (GBP): Default 3549 (prev. 1971, exp. 3582), +80.06%; Standard Credit 3764 (prev. 2100), +79.2%; Prepayment Meter 3641 (prev. 2017), +80.5%.
  • UK Tory leadership frontrunner Truss is considering plans to invoke Article 16 regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol within days if she becomes the next PM, according to government insiders cited by FT.
  • UK Tory leadership frontrunner Truss has reportedly been meeting with the business secretary and her prospective chancellor regarding a significant support package to help with energy bills, according to The Times citing sources.
  • German Economy Ministry spokesperson says they are looking at changes to the gas levy.

NOTABLE DATA:

  • German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Sep) -36.5 vs. Exp. -31.8 (Prev. -30.6, Rev. -30.9)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks took impetus from Wall St where stocks eventually shrugged off the initial choppy mood and ramped up heading into the close with outperformance in the Nasdaq amid a lower yield environment.
  • ASX 200 was underpinned amid a slew of earnings releases and with the consumer-related sectors leading the gains after Australia’s largest retailer Wesfarmers reported a 9% increase in revenue.
  • Nikkei 225 gained from the open with the index unfazed by firm Tokyo CPI data which printed its fastest pace of increase since 2014, as this is seen as unlikely to trigger an adjustment of BoJ policy.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the constructive mood as participants digested a slew of earnings results including PetroChina’s record profit and with tech stocks buoyed after delisting concerns were soothed by reports that China and the US are nearing a deal regarding company audits.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • US suspended 26 US flights by Chinese carriers after China's COVID action limited some US flights, according to the DOT cited by Reuters.
  • Chinese state planner official says domestic inflation is likely to quicken slightly later in 2022 and early next year.
  • China has asked some US-listed Chinese companies and their audit firms to make preparations for American inspections in Hong Kong, according to Reuters sources.
  • Chinese Financial Regulators have informally told lenders to make more loans, and raise some banks' loan quotas and loan-growth requirements, according to Reuters sources.

DATA RECAP

  • Tokyo CPI YY (Aug) 2.9% vs Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.5%)
  • Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Aug) 2.6% vs Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.3%)
  • Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Aug) 1.4% vs Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.2%)
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