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Euro Market Open: Downbeat sentiment echoed into APAC from Wall St., ECB minutes ahead

  • APAC stocks traded lower throughout most of the session as the downbeat mood reverberated from Wall Street.
  • DXY pulled back closer towards 99.50 in early APAC hours as US yields eased; commodity-FX lagged.
  • The FOMC minutes were hawkish with regards to the monthly caps on Treasuries/MBS and on rates.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 2.4% yesterday.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include  EZ Retail Sales, US IJC, ECB Minutes (March), Fed's Bullard & Evans, BoE's Pill, supply from France & Spain.

FOMC MINUTES

  • Overall, the FOMC minutes were perceived as hawkish with the monthly caps on Treasuries and MBS were towards the top end of a wide range of expectations, albeit not at the most extreme levels; participants generally agreed monthly caps of roughly USD 60bln for Treasury securities and USD 35bln from holdings of MBS. The Fed also confirmed a May commencement for the runoff process to begin, while noting that all options reviewed features a more rapid pace of the prior 2017-2019 runoff, as expected. The language on rates was also hawkish - many would have preferred a 50bps move in March, but the Ukrainian crisis saw a 25bps move instead. Meanwhile, looking ahead, many participants noted that one or more 50bps increases in the target range could be appropriate at future meetings, particularly if inflation pressures remain elevated or intensified.

Click here for the detailed release.

US TRADE

  • US stocks closed with losses across the board, with more pronounced downside in the Nasdaq as mega-cap tech stocks sold off.
  • SPX -0.98% at 4,480, NDX -2.17% at 14,498, DJIA -0.42% at 34,496, R2K -1.30% at 2,016.

Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • SEC is investigating how Amazon (AMZN) disclosed business practices and the Cos. use of third-party sellers’ data is a focus of regulator’s probe, according to WSJ citing sources.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

NEGOTIATIONS/TALKS

  • Ukraine Foreign Minister Kuleba said at the Thursday meeting with NATO and G7 counterparts he will discuss the need to supply all necessary weapons to Ukraine, via Reuters.

DEFENCE/MILITARY

  • Senior US Defense Official said Russian forces near Kyiv have completed their withdrawal from the area but US has indications Russian troops are being refit and resupplied in Belarus, and the killings in Bucha appear to be deliberate and premeditated, according to Reuters.
  • Russia's Defence Ministry said a Ukrainian fuel storage base was destroyed by Russian missiles in the Kharkiv region, according to Ria.
  • UK military officials are said to be mulling plans to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine, according to The Times
  • US is reportedly sharing intelligence with foreign banks to boost defences against cyberattacks, according to FT sources.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS

  • US President Biden said the US is going to keep raising economic costs on Russian President Putin, via Reuters.
  • UK Foreign Secretary Truss said the G7 is working to crack down on more Russian banks; working on a timetable to eliminate Russian energy imports, via Telegraph.
  • Russian Ambassador to the US says US sanctions on Russian banks are a direct blow to the Russian population, according to Interfax.
  • US Senate set up Thursday 10:00EDT/15:00BST to vote to sync up with the House and revoke normal trade relations with Russia, according to Fox's Pergram.

OTHER

  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said she is concerned about Chinese lending around the world, it is often predatory and causes unsustainable debt, according to Reuters.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken said he is not very optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement with Iran despite efforts, via Al Jazeera.
  • Saudi Arabia has urged Yemen's new presidential council to start negotiations with Houthis, according to state news agency.

CENTRAL BANKS

  • ECB's Nagel said savers may soon enjoy higher interest rates, according to a transcript of Ard interview.
  • BoJ Board Member Noguchi said Japan's economy will likely continue to recover as pandemic and supply constraints ease; most important thing is for the BoJ to patiently sustain current monetary easing, via Reuters.
  • IMF report noted that the BoJ "expressed concern" over IMF's recommendation to target short yields under YCC. IMF said the BoJ must maintain ultra-easy policy for a prolonged period. IMF cut Japan's 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 3.3%, via Reuters.
  • Westpac brought forward their call for an RBA hike to June from August. Now they expect rate hikes in June (15bps), July (25bp), August (25bps), October (25bps), and November (25bps) reaching 1.25% by year’s end. Prior call was for hikes in August, October ,and December.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded lower throughout most of the session as the downbeat mood reverberated from Wall Street.
  • ASX 200 was dragged lower by its tech sector following a similar sectoral performance in the West.
  • Nikkei 225 was hit by losses across its energy, mining and manufacturing names.
  • KOSPI conformed to the global losses whilst Samsung Electronics (-0.3%) failed to benefit from better-than-expected prelim earnings.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy and initially swung between gains and losses before stabilising in the red.
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Prelim Q1 (KRW) Revenue 77tln (exp. 75.7tln), Operating Profit 14.1tln (exp. 13.3tln), via Reuters.
  • US equity futures were subdued throughout APAC hours.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 2.4% yesterday.

FX

  • DXY pulled back closer towards 99.50 in early APAC hours as US yields eased.
  • EUR/USD reclaimed a 1.09 handle ahead of the ECB minutes.
  • GBP/USD erred higher as the Buck lost some modest ground.
  • Commodity-related currencies underperformed as APAC traders reacted to the slide in commodity prices.
  • JPY saw mild gains as the soured mood underpinned the haven.

FIXED INCOME

  • 10yr UST futures drifted higher whilst the corresponding cash yield lost further ground under 2.60%.
  • Bund futures consolidated overnight as traders look ahead to ECB minutes and EZ supply.
  • 10yr JGB yields were stable overnight but remained closed to the BoJ's 0.25% line in the sand.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude consolidated overnight following yesterday's substantial slide.
  • IEA's Birol confirmed the US is to contribute 60mln barrels to the 120mln global crude release, according to Reuters.
  • China is to strictly control new production capacity in the oil refining industry, according to the industry ministry
  • Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline resume westward, according to Gascade data.
  • Spot gold remained caged to a tight range around USD 1,925/oz.
  • 3M LME copper was dampened by the overall market sentiment.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin took a breather from yesterday's slide as the Bitcoin 2022 Conference got underway.
  • Meta (FB) is exploring a virtual currency for the metaverse, according to the FT.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • China's Shanghai city reports 19,600 new asymptomatic COVID cases (vs prev. 16,766), according to Global Times. "Shanghai authorities will work out a white list of suppliers of essential goods including wholesale markets, distribution centers, e-commerce warehouses, central kitchens which will be exempted from lockdown", Global Times tweeted.
  • China is to reportedly allow creditors of Evergrande (3333 HK) to sue locally to recoup debt, according to Bloomberg sources.
  • PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 140bln net drain.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3659 vs exp. 6.3697 (prev. 6.3793).

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Trade Balance (A$) (Feb) 7.457B vs. Exp. 12B (Prev. 12.891B)
  • Australian Exports (Feb) 0% (Prev. 8.0%)
  • Australian Imports (Feb) 12% (Prev. -2.0%)
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