Original insights into market moving news

Euro Market Open: Choppy APAC trade with Putin not ready to talk with Zelensky, according to Turkey

  • APAC stocks were choppy despite the strong close on Wall St. last week; best weekly performance for the S&P 500 since Nov'20.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is ready to negotiate with Russian President Putin; Turkish official says Putin is not ready.
  • The EU is reportedly to consider an embargo on Russian oil this week as Biden heads to Europe.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% on Friday.
  • DXY trades flat above 98.00, EUR unfazed by hawkish ECB remarks, CHF lags.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include EU Foreign Affairs Meeting, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Fed's Bostic and ECB’s Lagarde.


  • US stocks extended on gains on Friday after having shrugged off the initial quad witching tentativeness, in which the S&P 500 topped off its best weekly performance since November 2020.
  • S&P 500 +1.2% at 4,463, Nasdaq 100 +2.1% at 14,420, Dow Jones +0.8% at 34,750, Russell 2000 +1.0% at 2,086.


  • US President Biden will host a call with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and UK on Monday at 11:00EDT/15:00GMT, while President Biden will travel to Poland on Friday following this week's meetings with NATO allies, G7 leaders and EU leaders, according to the White House.




  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is ready to negotiate with Russian President Putin and warned that if peace talks with Russian President Putin fail, it would mean the start of a third global war, according to an interview with CNN. However, a Turkish official said that Russian President Putin is not ready for talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
  • Turkish Foreign Minister said Russia and Ukraine “have almost reached agreement” on four critical points of a potential peace agreement, as fierce fighting continued to devastate the key port city of Mariupol, according to FT.
  • Russian Defence Ministry called on ‘nationalists’ in Ukraine’s Mariupol to lay down arms and offered humanitarian corridors to both the east and west for this Monday, while it stated that Ukraine has until the early hours on Monday to give its answer on surrendering Mariupol.
  • Ukrainian Deputy PM Vereschuk said there is no question of surrendering Mariupol.


  • Ukrainian President Zelensky appealed to Israel and said that they know Israel’s air defence is the greatest in the world and could protect Ukraine, while he said the Kremlin is discussing the final solution to the Ukrainian issue in the same way the Nazi’s discussed the European question.
  • Ukrainian Deputy PM said they plan to send nearly 50 buses on Monday to evacuate people from the Mariupol region, while she added that 7,295 people were evacuated from cities on Saturday as four humanitarian corridors worked and that 3,985 people were evacuated from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia on Sunday.
  • Kyiv Mayor said there were several blasts in the city's Podil district with residential houses and the shopping district hit.
  • China’s ambassador to the US said China will work to de-escalate the Ukrainian conflict and said there is misinformation regarding China providing military assistance to Russia.
  • UK Ministry of Defence said Russian forces advancing from Crimea are still attempting to circumvent Mykolaiv as they look to drive west towards Odessa and that these forces made little progress during the past week, while it added that Russian naval forces continue to blockade the Ukrainian coast and to launch missile strikes on targets across Ukraine.
  • US officials see signals the Kremlin is shifting to a new strategy to secure key territorial objectives, according to WSJ.


  • US threatens to expand sanctions on Russia and said they are nowhere near lifting restrictions, according to Sputnik.


  • Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina said they will start purchasing Russian government bonds and will sell them after the market stabilises.


  • Israeli defence sources noted several intel warnings that suggest Iranian intention to carry out attacks via air, sea and on land, according to Israel Radar citing Walla News.
  • US and Turkey are said to be in talks over a deal for Turkey to send its Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems to Ukraine in exchange for the scrapping of sanctions imposed by Washington, according to Reuters citing sources. The report suggested Turkey is unlikely to agree to such a deal.



  • APAC stocks were choppy with sentiment clouded amid the uncertain geopolitical climate and higher oil prices.
  • ASX 200 was indecisive as outperformance in tech was offset by losses in financials and with PM Morrison’s Liberal Party defeated in South Australia's state election, raising concerns for the government ahead of the federal election in two months
  • Nikkei 225 was closed for the Vernal Equinox holiday.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. swung between gains and losses with an early surge in Hong Kong tech stocks ahead of a widely speculated relaxation to COVID restrictions after the city’s daily cases fell to a three-week low and with China’s tech hub of Shenzhen resuming normal work output. However, the gains were wiped out with the mainland hampered as Shanghai tussles with a COVID-19 outbreak, while the PBoC also kept its Loan Prime Rates unchanged, as expected.
  • US equity futures continued to pull back from Friday's peak following Wall St's best week since 2020.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% on Friday.


  • DXY traded flat above 98.00 despite recent Fed rhetoric underscoring the need for greater steps to address inflation.
  • EUR/USD was stuck around 1.1050 with hawkish ECB comments over the weekend doing little to spur the single currency.
  • GBP/USD continued its pull-back from resistance at 1.3200 ahead of the upcoming Spring Statement on Wednesday.
  • USD/JPY remained quiet throughout the session amid the absence of Tokyo participants.
  • Antipodeans lacked direction in tandem with most of their G10 peers and after mixed New Zealand trade data.


  • 10yr USTs were subdued after Friday’s choppy mood as hawkish Fed rhetoric pressured the front-end.
  • Bunds remained lacklustre with price action stuck near 161.00 following last week’s relatively tight range.


  • WTI and Brent crude began the week on the front foot after several Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities over the weekend.
  • Saudi-led coalition reported that Yemen Houthis targeted a gas station in Khamis Mushait on Saturday which resulted in material damage to civilian cars and homes but no casualties, according to the state news agency. Saudi-led coalition also said it destroyed an explosive-laden boat to thwart an attack on shipping in the Red Sea, while it was also reported that Aramco’s petroleum products distribution plant in Jeddah was attacked and production at a Saudi oil refinery in Yanbu declined momentarily after an attack by Houthis.
  • Saudi Aramco reported FY net income USD 110.0bln vs prev. USD 49.0bln Y/Y, while the CEO expects oil demand to return to pre-pandemic levels by year-end and said they are seeing healthy demand especially in Asia. Saudi Aramco's CEO also noted that there is limited spare capacity which is declining every month with global spare capacity around 2mln bpd and that the market is very tight in terms of available barrels.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated the OPEC+ format will still be required once new participants emerge on the oil supply market, while he sees no reason to believe the OPEC+ mechanism will be destroyed, according to IFX.
  • EU reportedly may refrain from intervening in the bloc’s wholesale energy market amid divisions between member states on the most effective solutions to curb rising energy prices, while other reports noted the EU is to mull an oil embargo on Russia this week with US President Biden set to join talks.
  • Germany and Qatar agreed on a contract for the supply of LNG that will help Germany reduce its dependency on Russian energy, although the long-term contract will not immediately stop flows of money to Russia, according to The Guardian.
  • UK plans its first North Sea oil and gas licencing round since 2020, according to FT
  • Spot gold was rangebound but partially nursed some of Friday's losses.
  • Copper retreated overnight amid the mixed risk appetite.
  • Pakistan’s Foreign Minister announced a deal with Barrick Gold to restart the Reko Diq gold and copper project in which a USD 11bln penalty against Pakistan would be waived.
  • Australia banned alumina and aluminium ores exports to Russia.
  • Iraq expects wheat harvest to reach 2.5mln-3.0mln tonnes this season which will supply the entire ration for 2022 and plans wheat output to reach 5mln tonnes next year.


  • Bitcoin was mildly pressured with prices back beneath the USD 41,000 level.


  • Fitch affirmed European Union at AAA; Outlook Stable, affirmed Belgium at AA; Outlook Stable, affirmed Slovakia at; Outlook Stable and affirmed Iceland at A; Outlook revised to Stable from Negative.
  • German Finance Minister Lindner called for fresh discussions on an EU-US free trade agreement, according to Handelsblatt.
  • ECB's Holzmann argued again for a rate rise and said that the ECB could send a clear message on tackling inflation through hiking rates before ending its bond purchases.
  • ECB’s Knot said a rate hike this year is realistic and the ECB is to assess the impact of the war on inflation at the end of summer.
  • ECB’s de Guindos said inflation is to stay strong longer than seen before and fiscal policy should help consumers during the price shock. De Guindos added that the ECB has options should inflation be stronger and that the future ECB path is data-dependent, while he added strong euro area fragmentation could limit ECB policy.
  • UK Chancellor Sunak is reportedly resisting calls for a large increase in defence spending as he seeks to free up money for cuts to ease the rising living costs, according to FT.
  • UK Chancellor Sunak said he will stand by people regarding the cost of living squeeze and attempt to make a difference where possible, Sunak added that cutting VAT on fuel would be the opposite of targeting support for the lowest-income households, however, Sunak is set to lower fuel duty by at least GBP 0.05. Sunak added that a planned tax increase to pay for social and health care is fair, although his priority moving ahead is to lower people’s taxes.
  • UK PM Johnson reportedly faces a backlash and received a wave of criticism after he compared the Ukrainian war to the 2016 referendum to leave the EU, according to FT.


UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Feb) 1.7% (Prev. 2.3%)


  • PBoC injected CNY 30bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 20bln net injection.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3677 vs exp. 6.3584 (prev. 6.3425)
  • PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (Mar) 3.70% vs Exp. 3.70% (Prev. 3.70%)
  • PBoC 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (Mar) 4.60% vs Exp. 4.60% (Prev. 4.60%)
  • Shanghai government is to keep certain regions locked down for additional testing, while Shanghai Disney Resort was closed from Monday due to a COVID outbreak.
  • Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said the epidemic situation in Jilin province is still grim and complex and urged officials to conduct thorough measures to stop infection in communities as soon as possible, according to Global Times.
  • Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam said a flight ban for some countries are no longer needed from April 1st and they will reduce the inbound quarantine to 7 days, while Lam noted that some social distancing measures will remain in place until April 20th and face-to-face classes will resume after Easter break in April.
  • China Evergrande (3333 HK) unit received bondholder approval to postpone coupon payments.


  • New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb) -385M (Prev. -1082M, Rev. -1126M)
  • New Zealand Annual Trade Balance (Feb) -8.4B (Prev. -7.7B, Rev. -7.8B)
  • New Zealand Exports (Feb) 5.5B (Prev. 4.9B, Rev. 4.8B)
  • New Zealand Imports (Feb) 5.9B (Prev. 5.9B, Rev. 5.9B)