Original insights into market moving news

US Market Open: Firmer European equity open fades alongside risk on downbeat Ukraine-Russian updates

  • Ukrainian Defense Minister says so far there is nothing to satisfy us in negotiations with Russia
  • Russian Kremlin says their delegation is putting colossal energy into Ukraine peace talks, conditions are absolutely clear; pushes back on FT reports
  • European bourses are predominantly negative, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, after a relatively constructive open; US futures in-fitting
  • DXY continues to unwind its upside with GBP awaiting BoE and Lira the CBRT, EUR/USD continues to climb
  • Debt derives impetus from the downturn in risk sentiment, yields pulling back from initial elevated parameters as such.
  • Crude has resumed its upward trajectory, though well-within recent ranges; precious metals supported on risk
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Industrial Production, Japanese CPI, BoE & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speeches from ECB's Schnabel.

As of 10:25GMT/06:25EDT


  • US IJC, Industrial Production, Japanese CPI, BoE & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speeches from ECB's Schnabel.
  • Note; US Clocks Changed to EDT from EST on Sunday, March 13th. London to New York time gap is four-hours until the UK change on March 27th.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.




  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said talks with Russia are challenging but are still ongoing. He added that Russia has the advantage in the air and already crossed all red lines, while he hopes for assistance from allies.
  • Russian Foreign Minister says that discussions with Ukraine are continuing via video link with the sides discussing humanitarian and political issues.
  • Ukrainian Defense Minister says so far there is nothing to satisfy us in negotiations with Russia; a peaceful solution can be reached with Russia, but "on our terms".
  • Russian Kremlin says their delegation is putting colossal energy into Ukraine peace talks, conditions are absolutely clear. Agreement with Ukraine with clear parameters could very fast stop what is going on; on the recent FT report re. peace talk progress said this is not right, elements are correct but the entire peace is not true.


  • RBI is consulting with the Indian gov’t and state-owned banks on the scale of INR-RUB payments required, as part of initial consultations on a INR-RUB trade agreement, according to sources via FT; would enable exports to Russia to continue post-sanctions.
  • Russian Finance Ministry says it fulfilled its order to pay USD 117.2mln in interest on two Eurobonds; will update the market on whether the payment was accepted on the payment agent's account.
  • Russia has set strict terms for foreign investors looking to purchase or sell Russia assets, according to a memo from Citigroup, via Reuters.
  • OECD says central banks should be prepared to intervene if needed to ensure smooth functioning of financial markets; Ukraine crisis could add 2.5ppt to global inflation and hit global GDP growth by 1ppt.


  • White House Press Secretary Psaki said they have seen no effort by Russian President Putin to de-escalate.
  • UK Ministry of Defence said Russia has probably expended more stand-off air-launched weapons than originally planned due to delays in achieving objectives and failure to control Ukrainian air space, while Russia is likely resorting to using older and less precise weapons which are less militarily effective and more likely to result in civilian casualties.
  • Slovakian defence officials expect to discuss potential transfer of Soviet-era S-300 air defence systems to Ukraine when US Defense Secretary Austin visits today, according to The Times Of Israel
  • Three Panamanian-flagged ships were hit during a Russian attack in the Black Sea in which one of the ships sank, according to Panama's government.
  • Ukraine has requested satellite data from Japan amid the Russian invasion, according to the Nikkei.


  • G7 Foreign Ministers are to meet today to discuss Ukraine.
  • UN Security Council's western members demanded an emergency meeting for today on Ukraine, according to diplomats.



  • European bourses are predominantly negative, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, after a relatively constructive open post Wall St./APAC handover.
  • Initial upside faded as updates on Russia/Ukraine are downbeat overall and push back further on some of Wednesday's more constructive updates.
  • US futures are lower across the board, ES -0.4%, after yesterday's upbeat close post a hawkish-FOMC.

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  • Buck flips after hawkish Fed hike and more aggressive dot plot before unwinding all and more upside in buy rumour, sell fact reaction; DXY almost 100 ticks down from pre-FOMC peak and just off 98.000.
  • Aussie outperforms following upbeat labour data and Kiwi lags on the back of sub-forecast GDP, AUD/USD eyeing Fib ahead of 0.7350, AUD/NZD back up over 1.0700 and NZD/USD capped into 0.6850.
  • Sterling firm awaiting confirmation of 25 bp hike from the BoE and vote split plus MPC minutes for further guidance; Cable close to 1.3200 at best and EUR/GBP sub-0.8400.
  • Euro clears 1.1000 again, while Yen extends decline to cross 119.00 line.
  • Lira looks ahead to CBRT with high bar for any direct support in contrast to Real that got a full point hike from BCB and signal of more to come.
  • Brazilian Central Bank raised the Selic rate by 100bps to 11.75%, as expected, while the decision was unanimous and it considered it appropriate to advance monetary tightening significantly into even more restrictive territory.

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Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 1.0885 (261M), 1.0910-15 (325M), 1.0970-80 (603M), 1.1000 (1.0BN), 1.1075-85 (690M), 1.1100 (398M)
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  • Debt derives impetus from downturn in risk sentiment as Russia and Ukraine deny major strides towards ceasefire deal.
  • Bond curves remain flatter following Fed's hawkish dot plots.
  • Bonos and OATs soak up Spanish and French supply.

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  • Crude futures continue to nurse recent wounds, with Brent May back around USD 102.50/bbl while WTI April inches toward USD 100/bbl.
  • Upside occurred, picking up from initial choppy action, amid the most recent geopolitical developments from the Kremlin and Ukrainian Defence Ministry.
  • India may purchase up to 15mln bbls of oil from Russia with state-run oil firms preparing to purchase heavy volumes of Russian crude that's going at a deep discount to help ease the margin pressure oil refiners.
  • China is to increase gasoline prices by CNY 750/ton and diesel by CNY 7220/ton as of March 18th, according to the NDRC via CCTV.
  • Italy is considering blocking the export of raw materials, according to the Deputy Industry Minister.
  • Spot gold/silver are firmer given geopolitical-premia., while LME Nickle hit the new adj. limit down of 8% after the reopen.

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  • ECB's Villeroy says the Ukraine war does not justify a return to policies of a "whatever it takes" style, adding that energy prices have begun declining but are very volatile.
  • ECB's Lagarde says inflation is increasingly likely to stabilise at the 2% target over the medium term; prepared to use a wide range of instruments to address fragmentation in the Eurozone; includes reinvestments under PEPP. New instruments can be deployed to secure monetary policy transmission.


  • EU HICP Final YY (Feb) 5.9% vs. Exp. 5.8% (Prev. 5.8%); MM (Feb) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.3%)
  • X F & E Final YY (Feb) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.9%); X F, E, A & T Final YY (Feb) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)


  • The majority of the US Senate Banking Committee voted favourably on Powell's nomination for Fed Chair and Brainard's nomination for Vice-Chair, while the Committee also advanced Jefferson's nomination, but was tied on Cook's Fed nomination.

Click here for the US Early Morning Note


  • Bitcoin is modestly softer but remains well within yesterday's parameters and retains a USD 40k handle.



  • APAC stocks gained post-FOMC while Chinese tech remained euphoric on support pledges.
  • ASX 200 was led higher again by outperformance in tech and following strong jobs data.
  • Nikkei 225 rallied after recent currency weakness and despite the deadly earthquake in Fukushima.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. continued to benefit from China’s recent policy support pledges which lifted the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index by 33% and with the PBoC boosting its liquidity efforts. Significant gains were also seen amongst developers after reports that China is not planning to expand its pilot property tax reform this year.


  • PBoC injected CNY 80bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 70bln net injection.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3406 vs exp. 6.3298 (prev. 6.3800)
  • Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised its base rate by 25bps to 0.75%, as expected.
  • China's Shenzhen will allow companies to resume work and production in an orderly manner.
  • Chinese Commerce Ministry says they expect consumption to recover, domestic virus outbreaks have been a break on consumption in some areas, will adopt the necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese firms.


  • Australian Employment Change (Feb) 77.4k vs. Exp. 37.0k (Prev. 12.9k)
  • Australian Full Time Employment (Feb) 121.9k (Prev. -17.0k)
  • Australian Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.2%)
  • New Zealand GDP QQ (Q4) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. -3.7%)
  • New Zealand GDP YY (Q4) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. -0.3%)
  • Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Jan) -2.0% vs. Exp. -2.2% (Prev. 3.6%, Rev. 3.1%)
  • Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Jan) 5.1% vs. Exp. 8.1% (Prev. 5.1%)