Original insights into market moving news

US Market Open: Ukraine-Russia updates lift sentiment, crude unwinds premia., FOMC ahead

  • Constructive commentary from Ukraine's Zelensky and Russia's Lavrov, though more time is still needed
  • European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +3.3%, after a firmer handover and on geopols
  • US futures are firmer across the board, NQ +1.9% outperforming amid overnight tech action, influencing European sectors
  • DXY reels amid support for EUR on yield action ahead of noted EUR/USD option interest at the NY cut
  • Core debt is depressed, with yields continuing to climb and the German 10yr through 38bps
  • WTI and Brent are consolidating and have most recently dipped into negative territory as premia unwinds
  • Looking ahead, US Retail Sales, Export/Import Prices & Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference from Fed Chair Powell.

As of 10:25GMT/06:25EDT


  • US Retail Sales, Export/Import Prices & Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference from Fed Chair Powell.
  • Note; US Clocks Changed to EDT from EST on Sunday, March 13th. London to New York time gap is four-hours until the UK change on March 27th.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.




  • Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the positions of Ukraine and Russia at negotiations sound more realistic, but more time is still needed and noted that Ukraine must recognise it will not join NATO.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says peace talks with Ukraine are not easy but there is some hope for a compromise. Ukraine's neutral status is being seriously discussed and some formulations of agreements with Ukraine are nearing being agreed.
  • Subsequently, Russian negotiator says that negotiations with Ukraine are slow and difficult, Russia sincerely wishes for peace soon, according to Interfax.
  • Russia's Kremlin says the idea of creating a demilitarised Ukraine, like an Austria/Sweden model, could be seen as a compromise. Echoing commentary from a negotiator earlier


  • US President Biden is to speak on Ukraine at 15:45GMT/11:45EDT today and is expected to announce an additional USD 800mln in security assistance to Ukraine, according to a White House official.
  • US Senators unveiled a bipartisan bill proposing the seizure and sale of Russian assets in support of Ukraine, according to Sputnik
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen will host a task force meeting on Russian elites today.
  • Japan is to revoke Russia's most favoured nation status, according to NHK.
  • Fitch said if Russia's USD Eurobond coupons due on Wednesday are paid in local currency, the country would enter into a sovereign default after the 30-day grace period expires.
  • JBIC head said if Russia makes payments on JPY-denominated Samurai bonds in RUB, that will likely be considered as defaulting on its debt.
  • On this, Russian Finance Minister says the ball is in the US' court re. whether the Russian coupon payment goes through.


  • UK Ministry of Defence said Russia is increasingly seeking to generate additional troops to bolster and replace its personnel losses in Ukraine and that continued personnel losses will also make it difficult for Russia to secure occupied territory.
  • Warsaw is seeking a NATO peace mission to help Ukraine, according to AFP. The Polish ruling party leader stated that it is necessary to have a peace mission that will operate on Ukrainian territory, while the Polish PM suggested they are not only fighting for Ukrainian security but also theirs.
  • "Russian forces control the city of Ivankov north of Kiev", according to Sky News Arabia citing the Head of Kiev Regional Administration.
  • Ukraine Deputy PM says that Russian forces are shooting from the Mariupol, Ukraine hospital - threatening the humanitarian corridor; Mariupol and Izyum humanitarian corridors remain an open question today.
  • Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive in several operational areas, radically changing the situation, according to a Ukrainian presidential advisor; subsequently, adviser says Ukraine has conducted several small counteroffensives but does not see a big change in main hotspots.
  • The leader of the separatists in Donetsk says the military operation to restore "our areas in Donbass" will be completed in the foreseeable future, according to Al Jazeera.


  • China's ambassador to the US denied China had prior knowledge of the Ukraine crisis, according to Global Times.


  • US State Department said they have made significant progress in recent days on Iran nuclear talks and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's remarks may reflect the fact that we would not sanction Russian participation in nuclear projects under the JCPOA.
  • North Korea appeared to have fired a projectile that could be a ballistic missile although the South Korean military stated the North Korean projectile failed to launch, while reports noted the missile appeared to have exploded after the launch, according to Yonhap.
  • US and South Korea are mulling resuming bomber drills in case North Korea launches an ICBM, according to Yonhap sources.



  • European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +3.3%, after a firmer Wall St/APAC handover amid some constructive Russia-Ukraine commentary.
  • In-fitting with this, sectors are all in the green with cyclicals outperforming and defensives lagging, but still positive, influenced by Tech amid APAC performance.
  • Stateside, US futures are firmer across the board, NQ +1.9% outperforms, in-fitting with sectors, but attention does turn to the sessions' FOMC announcement.
  • Tesla (TSLA) is suspending production at its Shanghai factory for two days, amid COVID related restrictions via Reuters citing an internal notice

Click here for more detail.


  • Aussie regroups on multiple props including recovery in iron ore and renewed risk appetite to probe technical resistance ahead of 0.7250 vs its US rival where the 21 DMA resides.
  • Euro retests 1.1000 against the Dollar amidst reversion to pronounced bear-steepening in EGBs, but decent option expiry interest at the round number may thwart again (1.23bln for NY cut).
  • Loonie rebounds in advance of Canadian CPI that comes alongside US retail sales and before FOMC, USD/CAD pivoting 1.2750 and DXY drifting down from 99.000.
  • Yen undermined by risk on flows and wider than forecast Japanese trade deficit, USD/JPY back up in proximity of circa 118.45 peak.
  • Yuan pares recent losses as China’s State Council promises to stabilise stocks and Vice Premier pledges measures to support the economy; USD/CNH around 6.3650 vs 6.4100+ at one stage yesterday.

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Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 1.0750 (591M), 1.1000 (1.23BN), 1.1050 (728M), 1.1100 (823M), 1.1150 (2.6BN), 1.1200 (1.14BN)
  • USD/CAD: 1.2665-70 (843M), 1.2695-00 (1.4BN), 1.2760 (298M), 1.2775-80 (855M)
  • Click here for more detail.


  • New cycle lows for bonds and yield highs as Russia and Ukraine declare further progress towards reaching a compromise.
  • US Treasuries pare lost ground as shorts take some chips off the table ahead of data, the Fed, SEP and Powell's press conference.
  • Bunds remain tentative before 10 year German auction after lacklustre demand for Schatz issuance on Tuesday.

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  • WTI and Brent are consolidating and have most recently dipped into negative territory amid the latest Russia-Ukraine updates removing further geopolitical-premia.
  • A move that has seen the benchmarks dip further below USD 95.00/bbl and USD 99.00/bbl respectively.
  • US Energy Inventory Data Expectations (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. -1.4mln), Cushing +2.3mln, Gasoline -3.8mln (exp. -1.6mln), Distillate +0.9mln exp. -1.8mln)
  • IEA OMR: lowers 2022 demand growth forecast by 950k BPD to 2.1mln BPD for an average of 99.7mln BPD, details available here.
  • LME says that amid a system error, a small number of trades were executed below the lower daily price limit for Nickel, such trades executed on LMESelect will be cancelled; after LME Nickel resumed and hit limit down.

Click here for more detail.


  • ECB's Nagel says he does not currently expect stagflation, sees no sign of a wage-price spiral, via Handelsblatt.


  • US Senate voted (57-40) to approve the bill to repeal CDC transportation mask mandate, although the White House had threatened that President Biden would veto the bill to overturn transportation masking requirements.
  • Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) submitted for US EUA of an additional booster dose of their COVID-19 vaccine for older adults and said early studies showed an additional dose at least 4 months after the initial booster dose could restore antibody titers to peak post-3 dose levels.
  • US and UK are to commence bilateral trade dialogue from next week, via WSJ, to discuss easing supply chain congestion, decarbonising the economy, digital trade and labour rights; furthermore, Politico adds the trade ministers are to meet on Monday.

Click here for the US Early Morning Note


  • Bitcoin has recouped from overnight pressure and is holding onto the USD 40k mark once more.
  • Japan's crypto authority could announce a relaxation of coin listing rules next week.



  • APAC stocks gained after Wall St closed at session highs amid a rally in growth stocks and retreat in oil prices below USD 100/bbl.
  • ASX 200 was underpinned with all sectors in the green and the index led by tech following the duration bias stateside.
  • Nikkei 225 gained amid expectations for Japanese PM Kishida to order the compilation of additional stimulus.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were positive amid a rebound from the tech rout and as local press suggested continued possibility of a rate cut with gains exacerbated after China's State Council vowed to keep stock markets stable.


  • PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3800 vs exp. 6.3802 (prev. 6.3760)
  • PBoC vows to ensure stable stock market with other agencies.
  • China State Council held a financial meeting in which it vowed to keep stock markets stable and that China will adopt effective policies to handle developer risks. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He stated they will take measures to boost economy in Q1 and monetary policy should take initiatives to support the economy, while they will continue to support overseas share listings and keep appropriate growth in new loans, as well as noted that talks between China and US regulators on Chinese-listed companies in the US have made positive progress.
  • China's Securities Regulator says it will strike to attain an agreement on China-US audit supervision cooperation, as soon as possible.
  • China Securities Journal noted that an interest rate cut window is not completely closed and that China could still adjust rates after maintaining the MLF rate yesterday, citing experts.
  • China Securities Journal stated some Chinese companies have been buying back stock amid recent declines and some disclosed Jan-Feb operating results to boost confidence.
  • Chinese think tank said China should cut rates to stop the equity rout and should buy blue-chip stocks with social security funds.
  • Japanese PM Kishida is expected to order the compilation of additional stimulus and Japan is considering compiling a fresh economic package after the fiscal 2022 budget is approved by parliament, according to Yomiuri and Kyodo.
  • Japan is to widen local initiatives to boost tourism, according to TV Asahi.


  • Chinese China House Prices YY (Feb) 2.0% (Prev. 2.3%)
  • Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Feb) -668.3B vs. Exp. -112.6B (Prev. -2191.1B, Rev. -2193.5B)
  • Japanese Exports YY (Feb) 19.1% vs. Exp. 21.0% (Prev. 9.6%)
  • Japanese Imports YY (Feb) 34.0% vs. Exp. 28.0% (Prev. 39.6%, Rev. 38.7%)
  • New Zealand Current Account QQ (Q4) -7.3B vs. Exp. -6.2B (Prev. -8.3B)
  • New Zealand Current Account/GDP (Q4) -5.8% vs. Exp. -5.6% (Prev. -4.6%)