Original insights into market moving news

Euro Market Open: Futures point lower attentive to US-China rhetoric and a potential NATO gathering

  • APAC stocks mostly declined following the soft handover from the US which saw the NDX close in a technical bear market.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.8% after the cash market closed higher by 1.5% yesterday.
  • White House warned there will be significant consequences for China if it provides assistance to Russia that violates sanctions.
  • US President Biden could attend an extraordinary NATO leaders meeting late next week. 
  • DXY retreated below 99.00, Cable bounced off support at 1.30, EUR/USD eyes 1.10 to the upside. 
  • WTI and Brent extended their declines with the former back below USD 100/bbl. 
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UK Employment, German ZEW, EZ Industrial Production, Speech from ECB’s Lagarde, Supply from Germany & US, Ukraine/Russia negotiations.


  • US stocks finished negative in which the NDX closed in a technical bear market for the first time since March 2020 after initial optimism around Russia-Ukraine talks faded into the NY session following a warning from the Kremlin that it would fulfil all of its objectives in Ukraine.
  • S&P 500 -0.74% at 4,173, Nasdaq 100 -1.92% at 13,047, Dow Jones flat at 32,945, Russell 2000 -1.92% at 1,942.


  • US President Biden will sign the spending bill on Tuesday at 18:15GMT/14:15EDT, according to the White House.
  • US Senator Brown (D) is working to move forward Raskin's Fed nomination with bipartisan support, according to a spokesperson, while Senator Toomey (R) is calling for a vote this week on four Fed nominees, excluding Raskin.
  • US SEC urged broker-dealers and market participants to remain vigilant to market and counterparty risks amid the heightened volatility and global uncertainties, while it added that broker-dealers should collect margin from counterparties to the fullest extent possible.




  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said negotiations with Russia will continue on Tuesday.
  • Ukrainian presidential adviser said Russia's territorial claims are unacceptable and Ukraine is ready to continue negotiations on remaining issues, while the adviser added that a peace agreement could be signed within 1-2 weeks at the earliest and May at the latest, according to CCTV
  • US State Department spokesman Price said the US raised concerns about China's support to Russia during the Rome meeting and the US is watching very closely the extent to which China provides any support to Russia. Furthermore, the US has deep concerns about China's alignment with Russia at this time and Sullivan was direct in talks about the concerns.


  • US President Biden said they will make sure Ukraine has weapons to defend against the invading Russian force, while they will send money and food and aid to save Ukrainian lives.
  • White House Press Secretary Psaki said the US had not seen any signs of Russian de-escalation and that there will be significant consequences for China if it provides assistance that violates sanctions. It was separately reported that US warned Europe that Russia wants armed drones from China.
  • US State Department said Russian President Putin continued to escalate and that it becomes clearer every day that he miscalculated, while it added there is a clear off-ramp for this conflict which is that President Putin must stop the violence and de-escalate.
  • 15 Bipartisan representatives urged US President Biden to facilitate MiG aircraft to Ukraine and to strengthen sanctions on third parties that conduct business with Russia, including secondary sanctions on Chinese banks and businesses if necessary, according to Fox.
  • Ukrainian air force claimed that a Russian drone crossed into Poland before returning to Ukraine and was shot down by air defences.
  • UK Ministry of Defence said it hadn't seen evidence to support Russian accusations of Ukraine intending to use chemical and biological weapons, while it added that Russia could be planning to use such weapons in a false-flag operation.
  • ELINT News reported loud explosions in downtown Kyiv, which could be missile strikes.


  • US State Department said the US added 11 members of Russia's Defense Enterprise to the anti-Moscow sanctions list, according to Sputnik.
  • EU member states approved a fourth round of sanctions against Russian oligarchs and entities, while the EU also revoked the licences of Russian airlines.
  • Japan imposed sanctions on an additional 17 Russians
  • Russian PM Mishustin signed a decree banning grain exports to Eurasian Economic Union until June 30th and banned sugar exports outside the union until August 31st.
  • Equinor (EQNR NO) is to stop trading in Russian oil and oil products, while it will not enter any new trades or engage in the transport of oil and oil products from Russia, but noted will receive for oil cargoes in March as part of pre-invasion commitments.


  • CNBC's Kayla Tausche tweeted that NATO leaders are discussing holding an extraordinary meeting in Brussels late next week which US President Biden and other heads of state would attend, according to officials, but added it is not yet final.


  • US Treasury official said Russian sovereign bond default would make it difficult for Russia to find future lenders, increase Moscow's borrowing costs and drain resources, while the official sees limited exposure in the US financial system to Russian sovereign bonds and noted that falling prices of Russian sovereign bonds suggests investors see a high probability of a default and are preparing for alternative payment outcomes.


  • US State Department spokesman Price said they are "what could amount to something close to the finish line" regarding Iran nuclear talks and should have a better sense in the near future whether there is a path forward for the talks.
  • Majority of US GOP Senators vowed to not support a new nuclear deal with Iran, according to Sputnik
  • Iran's state TV said it thwarted a planned sabotage at a nuclear site and made arrests.
  • North Korea could conduct a nuclear test before or after the May 10th inauguration day for the incoming South Korean President, according to DongA.



  • APAC stocks mostly declined amid the current geopolitical backdrop and COVID-19 concerns in China.
  • ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in the commodity-related sectors as oil retreated around 5%.
  • Nikkei 225 was shielded by currency flows and plans to end the quasi-state of emergency in Tokyo.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. extended on the prior day’s stock rout with heavy losses at the open after a jump in Chinese COVID-19 infections and with tech heavily suffering in the wake of a near-12% drop in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index. The PBoC also disappointed expectations for a 10bps cut to the 1yr MLF rate, although its CNY 200bln operation resulted in a CNY 100bln net injection and the latest Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales topped forecasts which helped briefly pare some of the losses.
  • US equity futures were rangebound after the prior day's losses.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.8% after the cash market closed higher by 1.5% yesterday.


  • DXY retreated below the 99.00 level with price action indecisive this week ahead of the FOMC.
  • EUR/USD was firmer and eyes a retest of yesterday's resistance near 1.1000.
  • GBP/USD rebounded off support at 1.3000, with most analysts expecting a 25bps BOE hike on Thursday.
  • USD/JPY remained afloat at the 118.00 handle as the BoJ continued to distance itself from a policy shift.
  • Antipodeans were subdued amid the risk aversion, lower commodity prices and RBA patient reiteration.


  • 10yr USTs remained subdued beneath 125.00 after recent upside in yields on pre-FOMC positioning.
  • Bunds languished after yesterday's losses but were off the lows after bouncing off support at 161.00.
  • 10yr JGBs were subdued with the Japanese 10yr yield around 0.21% and closer to the BoJ's 25bps cap.


  • WTI and Brent crude declined amid the risk aversion and some optimism for a Russia-Ukraine deal.
  • EIA sees total US shale regions oil production for April is seen up about 117k BPD at 8.708mln BPD which is the highest since March 2020 (prev. 99k BPD rise in March) and Permian output is expected at a record high.
  • US was reportedly near a deal to allow Venezuelan oil for debt swaps and Chevron (CVX) was preparing to trade Venezuelan oil if the US revamps its license to permit it to operate projects and market oil for exports, according to sources. However, the White House later stated that US oil imports from Venezuela are not an active conversation at this time and that it is talking to a range of suppliers to maintain global oil supply.
  • UK PM Johnson discussed with the Qatar leader concerns regarding volatility in the energy market and agreed to continue working together to improve global energy security and ensure sustainable gas supplies.
  • Spot gold declined beneath USD 1950/oz after a recent rise in yields heading into tomorrow's FOMC.
  • Copper languished near this month's lows amid the risk aversion.
  • LME announced that nickel contracts will resume trading on Wednesday March 16th. LME imposed a 15% limit on daily price moves across all metals, while traders' nickel positions are required to be reported.
  • Tsinghan Holding Group reached an agreement with a consortium of hedge bank creditors on a standstill arrangement for its nickel margin requirements in which banks agreed not to close out positions against Tsinghan or make additional nickel margin calls in respect of existing positions during the standstill.


  • Bitcoin declined with prices beneath the USD 39,000 level.


  • EU regulators have ruled out a blanket ban on banks' dividend payout and share buybacks during the Ukrainian crisis which is a more relaxed approach than what it took during the pandemic, according to FT.


  • PBoC injected CNY 200bln via 1-year MLF with the rate maintained at 2.85% (exp. 10bps cut) for a CNY 100bln net injection of funds, while it injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.10%.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3760 vs exp. 6.3649 (prev. 6.3506)
  • US administration official said National Security Adviser Sullivan's meeting with China's top diplomat Yang Jiechi was an "intense" seven-hour session in which they discussed crisis management and strategic risk, as well as North Korea. Furthermore, Yang said China and US should strengthen dialogue and cooperation, properly manage differences and prevent conflict and confrontation.
  • China's NBS said economic recovery momentum from Jan-Feb is relatively good, but the external environment is still complicated and China's economic development faces many risks and challenges.
  • China reported 3,602 new COVID-19 cases in the mainland for March 14th vs prev. 1,437 the day before, with 3,507 new local cases vs prev. 1,337 and 1,768 asymptomatic cases vs prev. 906.
  • China locked down Langfang city near Beijing due to COVID, while Xi'an in Shaanxi stepped up control over the COVID-19 spillover and demanded residents to not leave the city unless necessary and would need negative nucleic acid test results and green codes.
  • Japan is reportedly planning on ending the quasi-state of emergency in Tokyo, according to Sankei.
  • RBA minutes from the March meeting reiterated the war in Ukraine is a major new source of uncertainty and the board will not raise Cash Rate until actual inflation is sustainably within 2%-3% target. It was also stated that while inflation picked up, members agreed it was too soon to conclude that it was sustainably within the target band and the board is prepared to be patient as it observes how various factors involving inflation in Australia evolve.


  • Chinese Industrial Output YY (Feb) 7.5% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.3%)
  • Chinese Retail Sales YY (Feb) 6.7% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 1.7%)
  • Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Feb) 12.2% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.9%)