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[PODCAST] European Open Rundown 28th January 2022

  • All major US indices were subdued with initial gains reversed as selling re-emerged into the NY afternoon
  • Asian stocks eventually traded mixed although China lagged ahead of holiday closures next week
  • US equities benefitted overnight as Apple shares rose 5% following its earnings beat
  • In FX, DXY held on to most its recent gains above 97.00, EUR/USD remained firmly beneath 1.1200, GBP/USD reclaimed 1.3400 status
  • US bipartisan group of Senators have reportedly been meeting to create legislation that would dramatically increase the presence of US military aid for Ukraine
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German GDP (Flash), EZ M3, Economic Sentiment, US Personal Income, PCE Price Index, University of Michigan (Final). Earnings from Chevron and Caterpillar.

Click here for the Week Ahead preview

US TRADE

  • All major US indices were subdued with initial gains reversed as selling re-emerged into the NY afternoon.
  • Dow (-0.0%) finished flat after wiping out around a 500-point gain but found a floor near 34k.
  • Russell 2000 (-2.2%) led the declines followed by the NDX and SPX.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • Asian stocks eventually traded mixed although China lagged ahead of holiday closures next week.
  • ASX 200 (+2.2%) was lifted back up from correction territory.
  • Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) gained on a weaker currency and with corporate results driving the biggest movers.
  • KOSPI (+2.0%) was boosted by earnings including from the world's second-largest memory chipmaker SK Hynix.
  • Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) lagged with a non-committal tone in the mainland ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday closures and with Hong Kong pressured by losses in blue chip tech and health care.
  • US equities benefitted overnight as Apple shares rose 5% following its earnings beat; E-mini S&P +0.5%
  • European futures are indicative of a marginally positive open with the Eurostoxx 50 future up by 0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% yesterday.

FX

  • DXY held on to most its recent gains above 97.00 after printing its highest since mid-2020.
  • EUR/USD remained firmly beneath 1.1200 with selling exacerbated yesterday following a break beneath the November low of 1.1186.
  • GBP/USD reclaimed 1.3400 status as partygate headlines quieten down for now.
  • USD/JPY sat near two-week highs but with upside capped by resistance at 115.50.
  • Antipodeans were lacklustre after recent declines in the metals complex and the PBoC's notably weaker reference rate setting.

FIXED INCOME

  • 10-year USTs saw quiet trade overnight after yesterday's flattening with the 10yr US yield around 1.82%.
  • 10-year JGBs were kept afloat despite the heightened risk appetite in Japan and absence of BoJ purchases.
  • Bunds traded sideways above 170.00.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent crude futures traded marginally higher with price action calm after yesterday's risk-driven swings.
  • Spot gold was subdued following its recent decline beneath USD 1800/oz.
  • Copper was choppy amid mixed Asia mood and as its largest purchaser heads into Lunar New Year holidays.
  • February natgas expired 46% higher at USD 6.265 for the biggest daily increase on record and the March contract settled 6% higher at USD 4.28, with extreme volatility in the Feb. contract going into the settlement to post an intraday high of over 70% before reversing to 40%, although given the contract expired there was not much volume or open interest.

CRYPTO

  • Crypto markets were rangebound in which Bitcoin traded both sides of the 37,000 level.
  • US President Biden's administration is preparing to release an executive action that will task federal agencies with regulating digital assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a matter of national security, according to Barron's citing sources.
  • US Senator Warren is pressing cryptomining companies on high energy use, according to Bloomberg.
  • Russia's government drafted a roadmap for cryptocurrency regulation, according to RBC.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC injected CNY 200bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.25%, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese state media stepped up calls for stocks confidence following recent slump, according to Bloomberg.
  • BoK will conduct a meeting on February 3rd to review the market situation and will strengthen monitoring of markets during upcoming holiday.

Data Recap

  • Tokyo CPI YY (Jan) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.8%)
  • Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jan) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%)
  • Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jan) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.3%)

EUROPE-SPECIFIC HEADLINES

  • UK PM Johnson is reportedly 'wobbling' over plans to hike National Insurance as battles for survival and refused to confirm if they will proceed with the planned increase, according to LBC.
  • A government source cited by The Times suggested PM Johnson was considering delaying the National Insurance hike for a year.
  • UK Chancellor Sunak has been accused by PM Johnson's allies of blocking plans to invoke Article 16, according to The Telegraph.
  • UK HSA said data shows boosters provide a high level of protection against death from Omicron in which protection against death increased to around 95% two weeks after a booster jab in those aged 50+, according to Reuters.

GEOPOLITICS

  • US President Biden reaffirmed in call with Ukraine's President the readiness of US to respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine, according to Reuters.
  • US requested a public UN Security Council meeting for Monday to discuss the build up of Russian forces on Ukraine border, according to Reuters citing diplomats.
  • US bipartisan group of Senators have reportedly been meeting to create legislation that would dramatically increase presence of US military aid for Ukraine, according to Reuters sources.
  • UK businesses are urged to prepare for Russian state cyberattacks, according to FT.
  • Chinese Defense Ministry said PLA are prepared to deal with any US military provocation against China that could occur during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, according to Global Times.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US President Biden will deliver remarks regarding supply chains today at 14:00EST/19:00GMT.
  • White House is mulling extending the Trump-admin solar import tariffs, would exclude bifacial panel technology considered critical to utility scale projects, according to Reuters.
  • NIH said hyperimmune intravenous immunoglobulin (hiVIG) does not improve outcomes of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 in trial where hiVIG plus Remdesivir was compared with Remdesivir alone, according to Reuters.
  • Apple Inc (AAPL) Q1 2022 (USD): EPS 2.10 (exp. 1.89), Revenue 123.95bln (exp. 118.66bln), iPhone: 71.63bln (exp. 68.34bln), iPad: 7.25bln (exp. 8.18bln), Mac: 10.85bln (exp. 9.51bln), Services: 19.52bln (exp. 18.61bln), according to businesswire.
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