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[PODCAST] European Open Rundown 27th October 2021

  • APAC bourses adopted a downside bias, Hong Kong underperformed; US equity futures were flat/lower
  • In FX, DXY was contained whilst USD/JPY briefly dipped under 114.00 and AUD was boosted by Aussie CPI
  • Microsoft and Twitter rose post-earnings whilst Alphabet and AMD dipped
  • France intends to retaliate against Britain's refusal to offer additional permits for French fisherman working in British onshore-waters
  • US President Biden reportedly agreed to push for a deal as soon as possible in a meeting with lawmakers
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German Import Prices, US Durable Goods, BoC & BCB Policy Announcement, the UK Budget, supply from UK, Germany and US
  • Earnings: Santander, BASF, Deutsche Bank, Equinor, Heineken, Swedish Match, Telecom Italia, Puma, UniCredit; GlaxoSmithKline; Ford, GM, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Kraft Heinz, McDonalds, Garmin

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

US FDA advisory panel backs of use Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) COVID-19 vaccine in children aged 5-11; benefits outweigh risks. (Newswires)

ASIA

APAC bourses adopted a downside bias as sentiment waned following the mild gains on Wall Street, in which the S&P 500 and DJIA eked out record closes after easing off best levels. The US close also saw earnings from behemoths Microsoft, Alphabet and AMD - the former rose 2% after blockbuster metrics, whilst the latter two dipped after-market. Meanwhile, Twitter shares rose almost 4% after hours as the Co. highlighted the lower-than-expected Q3 impact from Apple’s privacy-related iOS changes. On the flipside, Robinhood slumped over 8% after reporting a steep decline in crypto activity. It’s also worth noting that Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares - the world’s most expensive shares - are quoted +51% after-market (+USD 223,614.00/shr); reasoning currently unclear. Overnight, US equity futures resumed trade flat before a mild divergence became evident between the NQ (+0.1) and RTY (-0.2%), whilst European equity futures' losses were slightly more pronounced. Back to APAC, the ASX 200 (+0.1%) was buoyed by its tech sector amid the post-Microsoft tailwinds from the US, but the sector configuration then turned defensive, whilst Woolworths slumped some 4% after earnings and dragged the Consumer Staples sector with it. The Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) saw losses across most sectors, with Retail, Insurance and Banks towards the bottom. The KOSPI (-0.7%) conformed to the downbeat mood, whilst Hyundai shares were also pressured amid its chip-related commentary. The Hang Seng (-1.6%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.9%) declined despite another substantial CNY 200bln PBoC liquidity injection for a net CNY 100bln. The Hang Seng accelerated losses in the first half-hour of trade with Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi among the laggards. Meanwhile. PAX Technology slumped 45% after the FBI raided the Co's Florida officers amid suspicion PAX’s systems may have been involved in cyberattacks on US and EU organizations. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid spillover selling from T-notes and Bund futures, whilst the Aussie 3yr yield topped 1.00% for the first time since 2019 as the trimmed and weighted Australian CPI metrics moved into the RBA's target zone.

  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3856 vs exp. 6.3862 (prev. 6.3890)
  • PBoC injected a CNY 200bln for a net CNY 100bln via 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 2.20%

Chinese authorities summoned 8 property companies to learn about their foreign debt on Tue. The companies reported difficulties faced by the market and hoped that the authorities would release policies to solve the issues, Global Times tweets. (Twitter)

PAX Technology (327 HK) Florida Offices were raided today; sources said the raid is tied to reports that PAX’s systems may have been involved in cyberattacks on US and EU organizations. (Krebonsecurity) PAX is a Chinese provider of point-of-sale devices used by millions of businesses and retailers globally.

  • Australian CPI QQ (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%)
  • Australian CPI YY (Q3) 3% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.8%)
  • Australian RBA Weightd Medn CPI QQ (Q3) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)
  • Australian RBA Weightd Medn CPI YY (Q3) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. - 1.7%)
  • Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ (Q3) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)
  • Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YY (Q3) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%)
  • New Zealand Trade Balance (Sep) -2.171B (Prev. -2.144B, Rev. -2.139B)
  • New Zealand Imports (Sep) 6.57B (Prev. 6.49B, Rev. 6.50B)
  • New Zealand Exports (Sep) 4.40B (Prev. 4.35B, Rev. 4.36B)

UK/EU

France intends to retaliate against Britain's refusal to offer additional permits for French fisherman working in British onshore-waters, according to the Times citing plans prepared by officials including the PM; such measures could include increase the price of electricity to Jersey or restrictions British boat access. (Times)

  • UK BRC Shop Price Index (Oct) Y/Y -0.4% (Prev. -0.5%)

FX

In FX, DXY remained sub-94.000 after briefly topping the level yesterday to a 94.024 high, with the 21 DMA today at 94.008, whilst Citi’s prelim estimates points to slightly above average USD selling this week. EUR/USD traded on either side of the 1.1600 mark whilst GBP/USD was similarly flat just above 1.3750 – with both pairs around yesterday’s APAC levels. The AUD was the most interesting mover overnight following Aussie Q3 CPI metrics, which saw the AUD/USD gain around 20 pips an immediate reaction to the above-forecast Trimmed and Weighted metrics – which moved into the RBA’s target range. That being said, the headline Q/Q and Y/Y printed in-line and slightly below forecasts respectively. AUD/USD eyed its 200 DMA at 0.7559 whilst the NZD upside was capped by a larger NZ trade balance deficit, and as the AUD/NZD crossed mounted 1.0500 and made its way towards its 100 DMA at 1.0528. USD/JPY was relatively dull in horizontal trade above 114.00 for most of the session before the pair drifted below the level as sentiment remained sour.

Brazilian Senate Investigative Committee have approved the final report calling for the indictment of President Bolsonaro for COVID-related crimes. (Newswires)

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent Dec futures were softer overnight as a function of the overall downbeat mood coupled with a bearish Private Inventory report, which showed a larger-than-expected build in headline stockpiles, whilst gasoline and distillates printed surprise builds. Newsflow for the complex was quiet overnight. Participants look ahead to today's weekly DoEs, with headline crude forecast to build 1.914mln bbls, whilst gasoline and distillates are both expected to draw. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver were lacklustre. The former dipped below its 200 DMA at USD 1,792/oz and meanders found mild overnight support around the 100 DMA at USD 1,788/oz. Copper prices eased slightly overnight, in line with risk, whilst Zhengzhou thermal coal futures hit limit down after falling 10% around the China open amid the nation's continued crackdown on prices.

US Energy Inventory (bbls): Crude +2.318mln (exp. +1.9mln), Cushing -3.734mln, Gasoline 0.530mln (exp. -1.9mln), Distillate 0.986mln (exp. -2.3mln)

GEOPOLITICAL

European lawmakers are to visit Taiwan next week to meet with Taipei officials, via SCMP. (SCMP)

Saudi-led coalition says it destroyed a drone which attempted to attack Abha International Airport, via State Media. (Newswires)

US

Another below-average volume session for T-Notes in APAC trade on Tuesday, with futures slightly lower amid a lack of fresh catalysts, and mixed sentiment across global stocks. There was a reported block buy of 3.6k 10yr ultras ahead of the European handover, but that failed to prevent T-Notes hitting interim lows as Europe arrived at 130-14+. EGBs rose into the NY handover, and T-Notes with them to print session highs of 130-22+, although resistance was found on the back of lacklustre German and UK auctions. On the curve, 2s30s had been narrowing out of the gate ahead of the 2yr auction and after some widening in thin trade on Monday. As the session progressed, T-Notes began receding from their peaks, with desks citing concession ahead of 5s and 7s auctions later this week, as well as a pick-up in IG issuance as corporates begin exiting their earnings blackout period. Price broke beneath the earlier lows of 130-14+, to break towards new session lows at 130-11+ just after the surprise, solid US Consumer Confidence print for October, contradicting the disappointing UoM survey. However, T-Notes rose slightly off their lows into the NY afternoon, coming as stocks came off their peaks. Under the surface, the short-end continued to trade weakest into the 2s auction, where the 60bln of 2s supply was digested well, stopping through the screens by 0.2bps -- better than the prior and recent averages; cover rose to 2.69, topping recent averages, while the participation metrics saw dealer takedown slip beneath recent averages while indirect participation rose above averages. The complex traversed into settlement post-auction. T-note (Z1) futures settled 1+ tick higher at 130-19+

US President Biden reportedly agreed to push for a deal as soon as possible in a meeting with lawmakers, according to reports. (Newswires) US Democrats are within striking distance of securing agreement on two critical components of President Joe Biden's domestic agenda, according to a source familiar with the negotiations cited by CNN. (CNN)

US President Biden is getting closer to naming the next Fed Chair alongside other vacancies; Biden has begun meeting with top White House and Treasury aides to review candidates. (Newswires) Senator Scott says that without big changes, he cannot back the renomination of Jerome Powell as Fed chair. (Newswires)

Senate Dems unveil new corporate minimum tax: 15% rate on companies with USD 1bln in profits; Would hit about 200 companies; Can still use tax credits, carry forward losses; Projected to raise hundreds of billions of dollars over decade. (Newswires)

The White House is privately telling lawmakers the climate portion of Biden's roughly USD 2tln social spending plan is "mostly settled" and will likely cost more than USD 500bln, two sources familiar with the talks tell Axios. (Axios)

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) Q3 2021 (USD): EPS 0.73 (exp. 0.67/0.60 GAAP), Revenue 4.31bln (exp. 4.12bln). Computating And Graphics: 2.398bln (exp. 2.33bln). Enterprise, Embedded And Semi: 1.915bln (exp. 1.71bln). (Globe Newswires) Shares fell 0.6% after market

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q3 2021 (USD): EPS 27.99 (exp. 23.48), Revenue 65.1bln (exp. 63.34bln). Advertising Revenue: 53.13bln (exp. 51.08bln). Google Cloud: 4.99bln (exp. 5.23bln). Other Bets: 182mln (exp. 201.22mln). (Alphabet) Shares fell 0.9% after market.

Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q1 2022 (USD): Diluted EPS 2.71 (exp. 2.07/2.07 GAAP), Revenue 45.3bln (exp. 43.97bln). Q2 2022 Revenue View (USD): 50.15bln-51.05bln (exp. 48.92bln). Intelligent Cloud: 17bln (exp. 16.58bln). More Personal Computing: 13.3bln (exp. 12.68bln). Productivity And Business Processes: 15bln (exp. 14.70bln). Windows OEM revenue increased 10%. Windows Commercial products and cloud services revenue increased 12% (up 10% in constant currency). Xbox content and services revenue increased 2% (relatively unchanged in constant currency) Search and news advertising revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs increased 40% (up 39% in constant currency). Surface revenue decreased 17% (down 19% in constant currency). (Microsoft) CFO says the Co. is able to ship more Xbox consoles than expected, with demand exceeding supply in the quarter. (Newswires) Shares rose 2.0% after market.

Twitter Inc (TWTR) Q3 2021 (USD): Diluted EPS -0.67 (exp. +0.17), Revenue 1.29bln (exp. 1.28bln). It is still too early for Twitter to assess the long-term impact of Apple’s privacy-related iOS changes, but the Q3 revenue impact was lower than expected, and we have incorporated an ongoing modest impact into our Q4 guidance. (Twitter) Shares rose 3.9% after market

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