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[PODCAST] EU Open Rundown 12th November 2019

  • Asian equity markets whipsawed overnight following a similar indecisive lead from Wall St where there was a mild downside bias
  • US President Trump is reportedly expected to delay the EU auto tariff decision for another 6 months, according to Politico
  • Brexit Party Chairman Tice said rumours his party will stand down more candidates to help out PM Johnson are “utter rubbish”
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US President Trump to speak on 'Trade & Economic Policy' at the Economic Club of NY, UK Labour Market Report, German ZEW Survey, EIA STEO, Clarida, Kashkari, Barkin, ECB’s Coeure, Mersch, Lane, supply from Netherlands, Germany
  • Earnings: Continental, Enel, Deutsche Post, Osram Licht, Uniper, Infineon, Experian, Vodafone, Tyson Foods, CBS Corp, Rockwell, D.R. Horton

ASIA-PAC

Asian equity markets whipsawed overnight following a similar indecisive lead from Wall St where there was a mild downside bias amid ongoing trade uncertainty, escalating Hong Kong violence and with volumes light due to Veterans Day. ASX 200 (-0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) were mixed with Australia dragged by underperformance in the mining related sectors and with financials subdued after tepid results from the nation’s largest lender CBA, while the Japanese benchmark just about remained afloat with a varied currency the main catalyst for price action. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) traded choppy after weaker than expected Chinese financing data and with the efforts to recoup the prior day’s hefty losses in Hong Kong, stalling due to resistance around the 27000 level and continued unrest in the city. Finally, 10yr JGBs slipped below the 153.00 level after a lacklustre tone seen in US Treasury futures which was hampered by the US bond market closure for Veteran’s Day, while demand was also restricted by a weak 30yr auction and with the BoJ only in the market today for Treasury Discount Bills.

PBoC skipped open market operations for a net neutral daily position. (Newswires) PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.9988 vs. Exp. 6.9975 (Prev. 6.9933)

Hong Kong riot police reportedly fired tear gas at a city university campus in Kowloon Tong today, while several universities have cancelled classes and bus operators suspended routes. In related news, US State Department spokeswoman said the US is watching the situation in Hong Kong with grave concern and condemns the violence on all sides, while she added the US urges China to honour commitments that Hong Kong will enjoy a high degree of autonomy. (Newswires)

USTR denied all Zoom Telephonics requests for China tariff exemptions, while the Co. plans to shift production out of China and into Vietnam. (Newswires)

UK/EU

US President Trump is reportedly expected to delay the EU auto tariff decision for another 6 months. (Politico)

Brexit Party Chairman Tice said rumours his party will stand down more candidates to help out PM Johnson are utter rubbish, while he added they made a magnanimous gesture in not contesting Tory seats but will fight every Labour seat full stop. Furthermore, Tice added it was more likely that he and Farage would change their minds and reverse the decision not to run in Tory seats rather than pull out of more constituencies, according to ITV's Peston. (Twitter/ITV)

FX

DXY was slightly firmer and attempted to pick itself up from the pullback seen in the prior session, where it had fallen through its 50DMA at 98.29 amid gains in its European counterparts and with lighter volumes due to the quasi-holiday in US. Nonetheless, the greenback recovered some lost ground as EUR/USD consolidated overnight and with GBP/USD flat but well off yesterday’s best levels where it briefly tested 1.2900 to the upside after the Brexit Party announced it will not contest Tory seats in an effort to keep the pro-Brexit vote undivided and avert a hung parliament. USD/JPY and JPY-crosses were mixed in light of the indecisive risk tone, while antipodeans were subdued by a weaker CNY reference rate, as well as further dovish policy calls in which JPMorgan now expect the RBA to instigate QE by the end of next year. Meanwhile, the losses in NZD/USD were exacerbated on softer Inflation Expectations which subsequently led to a jump in the market pricing of a cut at tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting to nearly 80% from around 60% yesterday and spurred Westpac to revert to its recently dropped forecast for a cut at the looming announcement.

New Zealand RBNZ 2yr Inflation Expectations (Q4) 1.80% (Prev. 1.86%). (Newswires)

New Zealand RBNZ 1yr Inflation Expectations at 1.66% (Prev. 1.71%)

Australian NAB Business Confidence (Oct) 2.0 (Prev. 0.0). (Newswires) Australian NAB Business Conditions (Oct) 3.0 (Prev. 2.0)

COMMODITIES

Commodities were mixed overnight with price action mostly rangebound for the complex with WTI crude futures resuming the prior day’s mild whipsawing to just about reclaim the USD 57.00/bbl level, but with upside limited by recent bearish supply-side factors including an increase in last month’s Saudi oil production and with Oman’s Oil Minister downplaying the likelihood of deeper OPEC+ cuts. Elsewhere, gold prices remained subdued following its recent breakdown attempt of the USD 1450/oz level with the precious metal restricted by a mild resurgence in the greenback, while copper nursed some of its recent losses amid early strength in Chinese commodity prices but with the rebound marginalized by the widespread indecision.

GEOPOLITICS

Israel announced it struck the house of the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad armed wing in Gaza, while a residential building was also said to be hit during Israeli airstrikes in Damascus. In related news, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad vowed a powerful response to Israel's strike which killed the group's leader, while reports later noted rocket sirens sounding, multiple explosions and Iron Dome interceptions from a rocket barrage in Israel. (ELINT News)

US

Treasury futures settled little changed due to a mild risk appetite in the US session bringing the sector off its highs from earlier on. Cash markets were closed on Monday due to Veterans Day in the US, with volumes across most asset classes subdued in general.

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