Trading guides
How to trade the news
The scheduled US releases that move rates, FX and equities together: what each report contains, which figures the market reacts to, how prices have behaved around past releases and how to prepare for the next one.
The guides
- NFPHow to Trade Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)The US jobs report is released at 08:30 ET, usually on the first Friday of the month, and feeds straight into pricing for the Fed’s next decision.Read the guide
- CPIHow to Trade CPI (the US Consumer Price Index)US CPI is released at 08:30 ET around the middle of each month and is the first full read on US consumer prices for the month before.Read the guide
- PCEHow to Trade PCE (the Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge)The PCE price index is the inflation measure behind the Fed’s 2% target. Much of it can be estimated from CPI and PPI data before the release, which shapes how the market trades it.Read the guide
- ISMHow to Trade the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIsThe ISM surveys, released at 10:00 ET in the first days of each month, are among the first national readings on US business activity for the month before.Read the guide
- FOMCHow to Trade FOMC Rate DecisionsThe FOMC sets US interest rates at eight scheduled meetings a year, with the statement at 14:00 ET and the Chair’s press conference at 14:30 ET.Read the guide
Three checks for every release
- 1
Check what is priced
Price action follows the gap between the data and expectations. Before the release, note the consensus, the range of forecasts and what money markets price for the next Fed meeting.
- 2
Read the full release
Revisions, core measures and sub-indices can move markets as much as the headline figure, and a headline beat with weak detail underneath can reverse.
- 3
Let the first move settle
Liquidity can be thin in the first seconds after a release. Short-dated Treasury yields show how the market has interpreted the data once the detail is priced.
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