UK PM Burnham says will not give the UK a clear path until we decide a long term relationship with the EU; notes that Brexit has done more harm than good

The operative distinction is between signalling closer alignment in principle and proposing a concrete structure, since the former has tended to leave the GBP risk premium and the gilt term premium where they were, while the latter has at times compressed the discount attached to UK assets via trade and investment channels. The acknowledgement that Brexit has done more harm than good is politically notable but changes nothing in the near-term path of goods and services flows; what has mattered in comparable episodes is the sequencing of any veterinary, customs, or mobility agreement and Brussels' willingness to engage, which has typically been the binding constraint. The named next step, laying out options for the long-term relationship, makes the follow-on to watch the publication of that framework and the EU's response to it, alongside any fiscal implications for the gilt issuance calendar if closer alignment is paired with spending commitments. Absent a timetable or a counterpart in Brussels, comments of this kind have tended to fade without a durable imprint on the currency or the curve.