OPEC MOMR: Maintains 2025 and 2026 world oil demand growth forecast at 1.3mln BPD Y/Y and 1.4mln BPD Y/Y, respectively.

Demand

• Maintains 2025 and 2026 world oil demand growth forecast at 1.3mln BPD Y/Y and 1.4mln BPD Y/Y, respectively.


• The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.2mln BPD Y/Y


• The non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2mln BPD Y/Y.

World Oil Supply

• 
  Non-DoC 2025 world oil production expected to grow by 1.0mln BPD Y/Y, revised up by 50k BPD from last month's view. The main growth drivers for 2025 are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.


• 
  Non-DoC 2026 world oil production remains at 0.6mln BPD Y/Y with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers.


• Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 43k BPD in November M/M, to average about 43.06mln BPD, according to available secondary sources.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

• US crude imports recovered from the strong decline seen the month before to average 5.9mln BPD while crude exports dropped from an eight-month high to an average of 3.5mln BPD.


• Product imports into the US remained close to last year’s levels, averaging 1.6mln BPD, while product exports reached a preliminary estimate of 7.4mln BPD.

Balance of Supply and Demand

• Demand for DoC crude remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 42.4mln BPD in 2025. Represents an increase of 0.3mln BPD vs 2024 estimate. 


• The demand for DoC crude in 2026 also remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 43.0mln BPD, about 0.6mln BPD higher than the 2025 forecast.

Analysis details (12:13)

• Non-DoC (countries not participating in Declaration of Cooperation).


• DoC (countries participation in Declaration of Cooperation).

11 Dec 2025 - 13:00- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: OPEC