Goldman Sachs now expects the FOMC to deliver a second 25bps hike in October vs prev. forecast of a lone September hike

Revisions of this kind from a major house are worth reading for what they signal about the sell-side consensus distribution rather than for the call itself: when one large forecaster extends the expected tightening path, peers have historically tended to follow within days, and it is the migration of the consensus, not any single note, that has moved the front end and OIS pricing. The substance here is a shift from a one-and-done view to a two-meeting path, which is a statement about persistence rather than timing; in past hiking cycles, that distinction has mattered most for how the market prices the space between meetings and the probability attached to a pause. The usual tell is whether the revision is grounded in fresh data or in a reinterpretation of official communications, since data-driven calls have tended to stick while rhetoric-driven ones have been walked back after pushback from officials. The follow-ons are the reaction in money-market futures around the meetings in question, whether the house's economists frame the second hike as data-contingent, and whether other desks converge. As a forecast rather than a decision, the signal is directional and second-order.