Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News - KXIAY falls on slower profit growth; ORCL files to offer $10bln in common stock

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: China’s NPC Standing Committee meeting (2-6 Nov).
• DATA: In North America, ISM manufacturing is seen at 54.7 (prev. 54.5), with prices paid at 78.0 (prev. 77.9), new orders at 55.4 (prev. 55.3), and employment at 53.0 (prev. 52.7). Final S&P Global manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 56.0 (prev. 55.9); construction spending (prev. 0.9% M/M) and Atlanta Fed GDPNow (prev. 3.2%) are also due. Canada manufacturing PMI (prev. 51.5).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Fed releases its Q3 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) moderates a Q&A. ECB’s Vujcic (neutral) speaks (text expected) and gives a fireside chat (no text expected).
• SUPPLY: US Treasury publishes Q4 financing estimates.
• EARNINGS: Notable corporate earnings reports due today include: Palantir Technologies (PLTR), ON Semiconductor (ON), Roku (ROKU), Apple (AAPL).

ES +0.6% NQ +01% RTY +0.8%

• ECHO +4.5%: SPCX is in talks to purchase EchoStar's Boost Mobile or use its network; TMUS -2.8% VZ -1.8%
• KXIAY -17%: Sees Dec.-Q op. profit of ¥2tln (prev. 1.99tln), raising concerns over slowing AI-driven memory demand
• ORCL -4%: Files to offer $10bln in common stock
• OKTA +0.5%: Will join the S&P 500, replacing KVUE, effective BMO on Nov. 4th
• CHKP -5.5%: Rev. missed
• TSEM +0.5%: Headline metrics topped exp. w/ strong next Q rev. guide
• MAR +4.2%: Solid Q report alongside raising next Q & FY view
• EL +2.8%: Top & bottom line beat alongside lifting FY27 outlook
• IDXX +7.7%: Q report impressed as headline metrics topped & lifted FY guidance
• CRWD +2.7%: Upgraded at Deutsche Bank

• S&P 500 (SPX) - Okta (OKTA) will join the S&P 500, replacing Kenvue (KVUE), effective before the market opens on 4th November. The change follows Kimberly-Clark’s (KMB) planned acquisition of Kenvue.

• Oracle (ORCL) - Files for a USD 10bln six-part debt offering, and also files to sell USD 10bln of common stock.
• Nvidia (NVDA) - US officials suspect Alice Huang, a Megaspeed International executive with ties to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, shared information with Chinese authorities, WSJ reports. The DoJ is investigating Megaspeed over possible chip diversions to China. Singapore denied investigating Huang over alleged Chinese intelligence ties, while Nvidia defended the business relationship and China rejected the allegations.
• OpenAI - OpenAI cut its fundraising target to USD 20bln from USD 30bln and valuation to USD 1.25tln from USD 1.4tln, the FT reports. The initial close is expected below target amid an AI stock sell-off and Anthropic’s impending IPO. Separately, OpenAI chief Altman said the company is focusing on AI investments in the energy sector, and highlighted the world’s need for more energy, adding that OpenAI has new ideas for applying AI to address the challenge.
• Samsung (SSNLF) - Plans to close all 8-inch foundry production lines by the end of 2030, shifting investment towards advanced 12-inch processes, The Elec reports. Customers have been notified and must secure alternative manufacturing capacity, but domestic foundries DB HiTek and SK Keyfoundry face capacity constraints. Migrating to 12-inch processes could require redesigns and increase production costs.
• Samsung (SSNLF), OpenAI - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman met around 50 Samsung Group executives in South Korea to deepen cooperation on memory chips and AI infrastructure amid worsening supply shortages, Bloomberg reports. Discussions covered AI adoption across industries and built on existing agreements to supply chips for OpenAI’s Stargate project and develop AI data centres, including floating offshore facilities.
• Anthropic (ANT) - Aims to raise up to USD 3.5bln from Japanese investors in its US IPO, Bloomberg reports. Mizuho Securities will manage the Japanese offering, with Goldman Sachs (GS), Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities and Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities handling orders.
• DeepSeek, Anthropic (ANT) - DeepSeek released an open-source prototype coding agent called Super Agent to challenge Anthropic’s Claude Code, Bloomberg reports. The tool monitors developer group chats for coding feedback and proactively suggests solutions without being prompted.
• Kioxia (KXIAY) - Shares fell as much as 17% overnight after forecasting December-quarter operating profit of JPY 2tln (prev. 1.99tln), raising concerns over slowing AI-driven memory demand. The company attributed limited growth to shipment timing rather than weaker demand, said next year’s planned output was sold out, and expects rapid growth to resume in the March quarter.
• OPay (OPAY), SoftBank (SFTBY) - SoftBank-backed OPay halted its planned NYSE listing over a regulatory inquiry in a jurisdiction it described as immaterial to its operations, Bloomberg reports, adding that OPay said the inquiry did not reflect its business performance or regulatory standing. The Nigeria-focused payments provider had priced its shares at USD 19/shr, implying a valuation of around USD 4bln.
• Leidos Holdings (LDOS) - Raised its quarterly cash dividend 4.7% to USD 0.45/shr.
• Lumentum (LITE) Q1 2027 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.57 (exp. 4.19), Revenue 1.26bln (exp. 1.249bln). Guidance: Q2 EPS 5.90-6.20 (exp. 5.08), Revenue 1.575-1.625bln (exp. 1.48bln).
• Marvell (MRVL), Lumentum (LITE) - Marvell confirmed its acquisition of Lumentum with implied enterprise value of USD 115bln, or approximately USD 1,132/shr.
• Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.49 (exp. 2.49), Revenue 670mln (exp. 672mln).
• Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.15 (exp. 1.07), Revenue 526.16mln (exp. 522.06mln). Guidance: Q4 revenue 600mln (exp. 579.74mln).
• Strategy (MSTR) - Bought 811 bitcoin between 26th October and 1st November for USD 65.5mln, at an average price of USD 80,846.

• EchoStar (ECHO) - SpaceX (SPCX) is in talks to purchase EchoStar's Boost Mobile or use its network, Washington Post reports.
• Fox (FOXA) Q1 2027 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.54 (exp. 2.08), Revenue 4.57bln (exp. 4.32bln), Adj. EBITDA 1.64bln (exp. 1.36bln).
• Meta Platforms (META) - Has developed a prototype humanoid robot in partnership with Chinese startup Fourier and is working on a second version, The Information reports citing sources.
• News Corporation (NWS) - A US federal judge dismissed President Donald Trump’s defamation lawsuit against Dow Jones, News Corp and other defendants over a Wall Street Journal article concerning a birthday letter to Jeffrey Epstein, WSJ reports. The judge ruled Trump failed to establish a viable defamation claim and dismissed the case with prejudice, preventing refiling. Trump plans to appeal.
• Alphabet (GOOG) - Turkey has launched an antitrust investigation into Google’s AI services.

• Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META) - Meta’s Muse AI shopping agent threatens Amazon’s advertising model by bypassing sponsored listings, WSJ reports. More than 10mln users in the US and Canada created Muse agents over the last month-and-a-half. Amazon said its advertising business remains largely unaffected and is considering external-agent partnerships. Amazon blocked Muse, citing safety concerns; Walmart (WMT) and Shopify (SHOP) partnered with Meta.
• McDonald’s (MCD) - A US judge rejected McDonald’s bid to dismiss a proposed class-action lawsuit alleging its McRib marketing misleads consumers into believing the sandwich contains rib meat, Reuters reports. The judge allowed some consumer fraud claims to proceed while dismissing others. McDonald’s maintained that the allegations lack merit.
• Marriott International (MAR) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.02 (exp. 2.84), Adj. EBITDA 1.51bln (exp. 1.47bln), Adj. net income 790mln (exp. 741.2mln), Adj. operating income 1.27bln (exp. 1.22bln). Guidance: Q4 adj. EPS 3.14-3.21 (exp. 3.02). Raises FY26 adj. EPS to 12.07-12.14 (prev. 11.64-11.81, exp. 11.74).
• China Auto Sales - BYD (BYDDY) October passenger vehicle sales +11% to 483,125, a sixth consecutive monthly increase as exports doubled despite weaker domestic demand; Chery’s sales +5%, with exports +60%, while Geely recorded +1% delivery growth. XPeng (XPEV) delivered a record 50,237 vehicles in October 2026 (+22% M/M, +20% Y/Y). Overseas deliveries reached a record 13,326 (+166% Y/Y). The XPeng L05 launched in mainland China, with deliveries beginning 1st November 2026. XPeng also obtained a licence to conduct Level 4 robotaxi demonstration services in Guangzhou. Li Auto (LI) delivered 29,025 vehicles in October 2026, taking cumulative deliveries to 1,862,676. It delivered over 3,000 Li MEGA vehicles, introduced its Lianshan Battery and Motor, and launched the updated Li i6. The company plans to roll out OTA 9.2 in November. Nio (NIO) delivered 34,246 vehicles in October 2026, comprising 18,125 NIO, 8,383 ONVO and 7,738 FIREFLY vehicles. Cumulative deliveries reached 1,332,139 by 31st October. Its All-New ES8 reached 160,000 cumulative deliveries on 23rd October, and led Chinese retail sales in the large SUV and RMB 400,000-level segments during January-October.

• Estee Lauder (EL) Q1 2027 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.72 (exp. 0.51), Revenue 3.72bln (exp. 3.65bln). CEO: "Growth is accelerating, profitability is strengthening significantly, and the impact of Beauty Reimagined is becoming increasingly evident across our business". "Raising FY27 outlook, reflecting both our strong start and our conviction in the future we are creating." FY Guidance: Adj. operating margin 12.9-13.7% (prev. 12.7-13.5%), Net sales growth 4.0-5.5% (prev. 3-5%), Adj. EPS 3.20-3.45 (prev. 3.10-3.35).
• Dollar General (DG) - Faces a lawsuit from the US Federal Trade Commission and 20 states alleging systematic overcharging at checkouts relative to shelf prices, WSJ reports. The retailer received over 29,000 related complaints between January 2023 and March 2026. Dollar General says pricing discrepancies are occasional, is contesting the allegations and has introduced measures to improve accuracy.

• Blackstone (BX) - A Blackstone-led consortium agreed to acquire 49.9% of a Mitsubishi subsidiary’s interest in LNG Canada’s liquefaction business for USD 3.1bln, Bloomberg reports.
• JPMorgan (JPM) - Opening a private banking branch at the Dubai International Financial Centre, Bloomberg reports. The new office will provide JPMorgan Private Bank with a dedicated platform to serve clients across the UAE and wider Middle East, expanding its regional wealth management presence despite the ongoing conflict.
• UK Banks - The BoE is reportedly considering easing restrictions on higher-risk mortgages by raising the loan-to-income threshold to 5 times household income (vs 4.5 times), FT reports; the FPC is examining the proposal amid pressure from lenders and the government to support the UK housing market.
• Leveraged Loans - Carlyle (CG), KKR (KKR) and Oaktree Capital are considering buying discounted US leveraged loans to package into collateralised loan obligations, Bloomberg reports. Around 85% of loans were trading below face value, while managers had established approximately 286 CLO warehouse credit lines. Rising borrowing costs and inflation have heightened default concerns across the USD 1.5tln leveraged-loan market.

• BP (BP) - Completed the sale of a 65% stake in its Castrol lubricants business to Stonepeak Partners, receiving USD 6bln to reduce debt. BP retains a stake in Castrol, while its net debt stood at USD 13.87bln at the end of Q3. CEO Meg O’Neill plans to outline the company’s long-term strategy in December.
• TotalEnergies (TTE) - TotalEnergies highlighted methane-reduction partnerships with Petronas, Sonangol and Oil India. It signed an agreement with Petronas, the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security and JGC Corporation to support Sea Metec using expertise from its TADI centre. A separate memorandum with Sonangol covers methane detection, monitoring, reduction and decarbonisation cooperation in Angola.
• Venture Global (VG) - Venture Global commenced commercial operations of Phase 1 of its Plaquemines LNG project, its second LNG export facility, and began selling US LNG to long-term customers. Commercial operations were achieved just over 53 months after the project’s final investment decision.
• OPEC+ - OPEC+ kept December oil production targets unchanged amid continued disruptions to Gulf exports from the Iran war. Seven members agreed the decision, with most Gulf producers still operating below quotas. The group faces a tougher decision on 2027 production quotas on 29th November, following a delayed capacity review expected by mid-November.
• Crude Forecast - Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to USD 105/bbl (prev. saw 90/bbl) and 2027 average to USD 88/bbl, citing substantial supply risks; the bank’s base case assumes a 1mln BPD global supply disruption in 2027. In its bullish scenario, GS sees Brent averaging USD 130/bbl next year.
• ADNOC - ADNOC’s CEO said nearly 1bln barrels of oil have been drawn from global inventories since the Strait of Hormuz disruption, eroding supply buffers. Diesel inventories in some markets are at 35-year seasonal lows, while logistics and shipping costs have risen to 30% of a barrel’s cost from 5% before the Iran war.

• Alaska Air (ALK) - Plans to cut around 200 non-contract jobs, representing less than 1% of its workforce, amid rising fuel costs, Reuters reported. Its CEO warned of a potential FY26 adj. pretax loss of up to USD 700mln, with fuel expenses USD 1.8bln above initial projections. Frontline non-management positions are unaffected.
• Ryanair (RYAAY) - Plans cost cuts, potentially including pay freezes, reduced crew staffing and revised airport agreements, to offset an expected EUR 2bln increase in fuel costs next year, Bloomberg reports. H1 after-tax profit fell 15% to EUR 2.15bln (prev. 2.54bln). Forecasts FY27 passenger traffic of 214mln (prev. 216mln) and announced an EUR 800mln buyback.
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) - Raised its quarterly dividend 5.1% to USD 1.45/shr.

• Entergy (ETR) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.98 (exp. 1.73); raised quarterly dividend 6.25% to USD 0.68/shr. Guidance: FY26 adj. EPS 4.35-4.45 (exp. 4.41, prev. 4.25-4.45).
• Xcel Energy (XEL) - Announced plans to offer USD 2bln in convertible senior notes due 2027.

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Announced three clinical analyses at TCT 2026 showing positive outcomes for Impella-supported high-risk percutaneous coronary intervention. Real-world registry data from 1,379 patients across US and European hospitals showed lower in-hospital cardiovascular mortality and lower 30- and 90-day mortality rates compared with those reported in the CHIP-BCIS3 study.
• Abbott (ABT) - Announced that its Tectonic CAD IVL IDE study of the investigational SonicForce Coronary IVL System met its primary safety and effectiveness endpoints. The 30-day results showed a 0.3% target lesion failure rate and 97% procedural success. Secondary endpoints were also met, including 0.3% major adverse cardiovascular events and successful stent delivery in all assessed patients.
• Philips (PHG) - Announced US commercial availability of its HyperVue Integrated System, combining DeepOCT+NIRS coronary imaging and X1-FFR physiology assessment in a single room-based configuration.
• IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 4.01 (exp. 3.72), Revenue 1.21bln (exp. 1.19bln). Guidance: Raises FY26; EPS 14.96-15.16 (prev. 14.69-14.94, exp. 14.88), Revenue 4.74-4.77bln (prev. 4.7-4.75bln, exp. 4.72bln).

• China Steel - Some Chinese steel mills ignored calls to curb production and inventories, worsening oversupply and profitability, China Metallurgical News reported. Around 56% of key member mills were loss-making in September. During January-September 2026, steel output fell 2.9% to 725mln tonnes, while consumption declined 3.8% to 625mln tonnes, prompting renewed calls for production restraint.
• Rare Earths - Sunrise Energy Metals approved development of the Syerston scandium mine and refinery in New South Wales, targeting production in 2028, Bloomberg reports. The company secured up to USD 400mln in long-term debt funding from the US Department of War. Initial production is planned at 60 tonnes annually, potentially tripling, amid restricted Chinese supplies.
• Lithium, Battery Demand - Citigroup cut its three-month lithium carbonate and hydroxide price targets to USD 12K per tonne (prev. saw 20K and 17K, respectively) and spodumene to USD 1.2K (prev. saw 2K). The bank also lowered forecasts through 2028, citing weakening battery demand, trade uncertainty and macroeconomic pressures, warning that near-term price risks remain skewed to the downside.

• China PMI - China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September (exp. 50.0), its third contraction in four months. The official non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 (from 50.2), while new orders and export orders remained in contraction. China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased to 52.0 in October from 52.1 in September (exp. 51.6). New export order growth slowed to a three-month low, although output expanded at its fastest pace since April. Official figures showed manufacturing contracting, highlighting continued reliance on exports amid subdued domestic demand. The weak domestic demand and slowing overseas orders prompted calls for further government support.
• PBoC - China’s central bank launched daily overnight reverse repos as its new policy anchor, replacing the seven-day rate. It conducted CNY 541bln of overnight operations at 1.25%, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of CNY 515bln after maturities. Overnight repo rates held near 1.28%, while seven-day rates eased to 1.36%.
• JPY - Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned authorities would act against disorderly or excessively speculative currency movements. She reaffirmed close coordination with the US under their joint currency agreement and said concerns over yen weakness were shared by both governments.
• France - Fitch Ratings unexpectedly revised France’s credit outlook from stable to negative, while maintaining its A+ rating. The CRA cited weaker growth, higher borrowing costs, a widening deficit and political fragmentation. This comes as public debt approaches 120% of GDP, and 10yr government bond yields hover near 5%.

• US-Iran - US strikes on Iran could reportedly resume as soon as a day after the midterms. President Trump said the conflict would end “very soon”, warning Iran to make a deal. The Jerusalem Post reported Trump seeks nuclear concessions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with any renewed military action potentially lasting days. Elsewhere, Axios reported that Trump favours giving diplomacy with Iran more time before considering renewed military strikes following Tuesday’s midterm elections; Trump reportedly conveyed his preference for diplomacy to Israeli PM Netanyahu during a phone call, raising concerns in Israel.
• Russian Gas - The US is pushing to resume Russian gas sales to Europe via Ukraine, potentially using an American intermediary to bypass sanctions as part of energy ceasefire negotiations, WSJ reports. Washington proposed holding proceeds in escrow, with Ukraine receiving transit fees. EU legislation mandates ending Russian gas purchases by 2027.

• US-Canada - President Trump said Canada and the US are close to a trade agreement that would build and fund the Keystone Pipeline. Canadian PM Carney confirmed discussions on a bilateral trade framework, but said Canada would not rush into a deal unless terms served its interests. Foreign Minister Anand said Canada aims to double non-US trade within a decade.

This is the daily opening digest rather than a single catalyst, but the two items the wire has chosen to lead on share a theme: the market stress-testing the AI trade from both the demand side and the funding side. Kioxia's slide on guidance that still implies record-level profit fits an established pattern in this cycle, where memory and AI-hardware names have been punished not for misses but for any deceleration in growth rates; management's framing of the shortfall as shipment timing, with output sold out and a re-acceleration flagged for the following quarter, is the standard defence, and the tell in past episodes has been whether peer commentary and spot memory pricing corroborate it. Oracle's equity filing is the more structurally interesting item: the AI infrastructure buildout has so far been financed heavily through debt, and a large common-stock raise alongside a multi-tranche bond offering signals the point at which leverage tolerance is tested and dilution enters the funding mix. Companies announcing sizeable equity raises to fund capex have historically seen the stock discount the dilution first and re-rate only if the spend subsequently demonstrates returns, a sequence that has played out repeatedly in prior capex supercycles. Worth observing are whether other hyperscaler-adjacent names follow with equity of their own, how credit spreads on AI-linked issuers behave relative to the equity reaction, and whether memory peers validate or contradict Kioxia's timing-not-demand account. Elsewhere the session carries the usual first-of-month US data, Treasury refunding estimates, and heavyweight earnings, any of which could reassert macro over the single-stock narratives.