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Daily US Equity Opening News - 12th November 2026: NVDA board weighs CEO ouster on fresh affair claims; CRWV reportedly to raise $4B+ in IG loans

Newsquawk Staff ·

DAY AHEAD

  • US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.6%, NQ -1.2%, YM -0.3%, RUT -0.5%
  • EVENTS: US envoys Kushner and Witkoff are in Moscow today to meet with Russian President Putin, following trilateral Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi this week.
  • CENTRAL BANKS: There is a heavy slate of Fedspeakers today: Barr (voter) will speak on AI and inequality; Williams (voter) will participate on a panel; Hammack (2026 voter), Schmid (2028 voter), Goolsbee (2027 voter) and Daly (2027 voter) are also due. From the ECB, President Lagarde (no text expected) and ECB Vice President Vujcic (no text expected) will deliver remarks.
  • SUPPLY: US auctions USD 25bln of 30yr bonds.
  • ENERGY: DoE weekly energy inventories are released today.
  • EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today include: Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Cerebras Systems (CBRS).
  • US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: . For the full list, click here.

TECH

  • Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia shares plunged in extended US trading amid allegations that CEO Jensen Huang had an extramarital relationship with Kimberly Powell, the company’s vice president of healthcare. The allegations emerge amid Nvidia’s board investigation into Huang’s acknowledged affair with Alice Huang, whom US officials identified as a Chinese intelligence asset. The WSJ followed with a report that Nvidia’s board is now preparing to oust CEO Huang following the latest revelation. Bloomberg said the board is weighing naming a temporary CEO before holding a wider search, and is working with an outside firm to find a possible new CEO. Nvidia was downgraded by several brokers following the reports. Evercore ISI cut the stock to In Line from Outperform, lowering its PT to USD 186 (prev. 465); it expects the board investigation to take several months and the P/E multiple to compress further, while the lack of a succession plan adds to the risk. Bernstein downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform, cutting its PT to USD 200 (prev. 400), saying it sees it as near impossible for the board to keep Huang in the role and expects more allegations to come. William Blair lowered its rating to Market Perform from Outperform, warning that Huang's likely departure and heightened scrutiny will be a significant near-term overhang, with a potentially slower AI buildout and rising competition adding to execution risk. Oppenheimer cut to Perform from Outperform, highlighting Huang's role as the face of AI and the lack of an obvious successor, which could weigh on shares for some time. Republican Senator Kevin Cramer reiterated his call for Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to step down immediately, adding that he hopes Huang would be absolved of corruption.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) - President Trump on Thursday authorised a crackdown on companies suspected of diverting Nvidia’s advanced AI chips to China for the third time this year, Axios reports. Trump consulted Elon Musk (SPCX/TSLA) before approving the measures, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has allegedly repeatedly obstructed their implementation. US Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Coons urged the Trump administration to preserve records concerning Nvidia chip exports to China, WSJ said. The senators also requested a congressional briefing on national security risks.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) - Chinese AI companies are rushing to secure overseas Nvidia computing capacity amid fears of tighter US restrictions following espionage allegations involving CEO Jensen Huang, Reuters reports. The proposed Remote Access Security Act, already passed by the House, could regulate remote access to restricted chips. Concerns over tighter enforcement are also driving stockpiling of Nvidia processors in China’s grey market.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) - SpaceX (SPCX)/Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk said it would be an honour to hire Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang amid reports the chipmaker’s board is considering his removal following allegations of multiple extramarital affairs. Musk previously praised Huang and confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX AI expect to continue purchasing Nvidia chips at scale.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia’s Rubin platform has reportedly suffered another delay due to motherboard warpage, with volume shipments now pushed into 2027, according to Citrini’s Jukan. The previously reported HBM issue was resolved in October. Nvidia has reportedly increased Blackwell orders to compensate for the delay.
  • AMD (AMD) - William Blair upgraded AMD to Outperform from Market Perform without a PT, saying the risk/reward has shifted in AMD's favour. The firm noted that Intel's (INTC) Xeon roadmap continues to face delays and supply shortages, while the shift to Arm-based hosts is proving less decisive than feared. It added that AMD's valuation multiple has come down significantly as estimates moved higher, and sees an opportunity for the company with its largest competitor Nvidia (NVDA) facing scrutiny and a leadership vacuum. Meanwhile, AMD teamed up with PsiQuantum to co-design the computing infrastructure needed to run utility-scale quantum computers, and plans to make an equity investment in PsiQuantum.
  • Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT/HNHPF) - Q3 net profit +34% Y/Y at TWD 77.5bln (exp. 70.3bln), Q3 revenue TWD 3.02tln (vs 2.06tln Y/Y). Results were supported by strong AI server demand and robust sales of Apple’s (AAPL) premium iPhone Duo and iPhone 18 series. Cloud and networking remained a key growth driver, benefiting from sustained Nvidia (NVDA) AI server shipments, hyperscaler investment and expanding manufacturing capacity. Chairman Young Liu highlighted ambitions to capture 50% of the global AI server market within two years, and increase gross margins to approximately 10% through greater production of high-value components. Management expects strong Q4 revenue growth Y/Y, supported by continued AI infrastructure investment and demand for premium consumer electronics.
  • Nebius Group (NBIS) - Q3 adj. EBITDA USD 465.8mln (exp. 351.8mln), Q3 revenue USD 980.8mln (exp. 907.2mln), Q3 operating income USD 50.4mln. Nebius AI Cloud revenue rose 643% Y/Y to USD 973.8mln. ARR reached USD 6.4bln as of end-September, although the company said it no longer sees ARR as the right measure of the business. Now expects FY26 revenue at the low end of its USD 3.0-3.4bln range (exp. 3.37bln), with FY26 capex of approximately USD 27bln as it invests in capacity for 2027, particularly at owned sites. Sees FY27 revenue of USD 12-13bln (exp. 11.98bln) and capex of USD 40-45bln, with prepayments and financing against existing contracts with IG customers expected to cover 75-85% of capex. Expects to reach pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027. CEO said some of its co-location sites, including New Jersey, are behind schedule, noting customers have been kept informed and that delays are common across the industry; however, its own sites are on track and running ahead of schedule, and most of the next gigawatt it brings online will be at owned sites. The CFO expects USD 10bln in committed customer prepayments in 2026, adding that prepayments became the standard structure of its agreements in Q3, with over 90% of contract value signed in the quarter including a prepayment. Long-term deals with Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) can support further asset-backed financing, and the company has over USD 40bln in committed revenue. Management said changes to 2026 guidance reflect timing rather than demand, and it does not anticipate any material impact on data centre timelines from the current political landscape.
  • CoreWeave (CRWV) - Shares slid by almost 8% in extended US trading on a report that it plans to raise at least USD 4bln through an IG loan led by Morgan Stanley (MS) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG). The chip- and contract-backed financing could launch next week, with indicative yields of between 7.0-7.5%.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) - Microsoft pledged to fund its own data centre power needs without government subsidies or raising other customers’ electricity costs. It plans USD 117bln in computing capacity this year. Its West Texas Project Kilby, developed with Chevron (CVX) and Joulent, faces a permitting moratorium, although Chevron targets initial operations in 2028 and full capacity by 2031.
  • IBM (IBM) - IBM agreed to acquire AuthMind; no financial terms were disclosed.
  • Strategy Inc (MSTR) - Strategy shares fell on reports that MSCI will remove Strategy and Metaplanet from its equity indices effective 30th November under rules excluding non-operating businesses. The decision pressures Strategy’s Bitcoin-financing model. JPMorgan (JPM) previously estimated the exclusion could trigger USD 2.8bln in forced selling, potentially rising to USD 8.8bln if other indices follow, Bloomberg said.
  • HubSpot (HUBS) - HubSpot announced a leadership transition, with co-founder Brian Halligan returning as CEO to lead a refounding of the company, and named Karen Burgess as its next CFO.

COMMUNICATIONS

  • Alphabet (GOOG) - Alphabet began marketing its first HKD- and SGD-denominated bonds amid heightened scrutiny of AI-related borrowing. Initial yield guidance ranges from 4.6-5.5% for HKD notes with 2-10yr maturities, and 2.75-4% for SGD notes with 2-30yr maturities. Proceeds may fund general corporate purposes or debt repayment; pricing is possible on Thursday.
  • Alphabet (GOOG) - Alphabet’s Google received backing from a European court adviser in its challenge to a USD 1.7bln antitrust fine. The penalty concerned restrictive AdSense advertising clauses in publisher contracts. EU regulators appealed a 2024 ruling that annulled the fine, originally imposed in 2019. The adviser’s opinion is non-binding, with a final court ruling expected later.
  • Meta (META) - Unveiled long-term deals for clean manufacturing in its data centre supply chains, including an agreement with Fortera for a new low-carbon cement plant in Missouri.
  • Skydance (SKYD) - Skydance Games reportedly reassured staff that development of Marvel 1943: Rise of Hydra remains ongoing, denying rumours of cancellation, although uncertainty surrounding the Warner Bros. (WBD) acquisition could still affect the project, according to Bloomberg reporter Jason Schreier.

FINANCIALS

  • PayPal (PYPL) - PayPal partnered with Workday (WDAY) to enhance employee financial well-being through PayPal Direct Deposit.
  • HSBC Group (HSBC) - HSBC is exploring plans to give its Singapore operations greater autonomy and reduce reliance on China and Hong Kong, Bloomberg reports. The initiative, internally named Project Sirena, aims to diversify risks across its Asian business.
  • Generali (ARZGY) - Delfin, the Del Vecchio family’s EUR 45bln holding company, is open to supporting strategic expansion at Generali, where it owns roughly 10%, but is not preparing its own proposal, Bloomberg reports. Family disputes over Chairman Francesco Milleri’s strategy and a EUR 30bln takeover approach from Czech billionaire Michal Strnad threaten its investment ambitions.
  • Allianz (ALIZY) - Reported Q3 operating profit of EUR 4.71bln (exp. 4.20bln), and net profit of EUR 2.784bln (exp. 2.506bln). 9-month operating profit rose to EUR 14.1bln (prev. 13.1bln Y/Y). Asset management and property-casualty supported earnings, while FY26 operating profit guidance was raised to EUR 16.4-18.6bln (prev. saw 16.4-18.4bln).
  • Munich Re (MURGY) - Final Q3 profit EUR 1.74bln (exp. 1.62bln); its property and casualty reinsurance combined ratio rose to 80% (prev. 62.7% Y/Y); it raised FY26 profit guidance to EUR 6.6bln (prev. saw 6.3bln).
  • Vylor (VYLR) - Vylor shares rose 2% afterhours following a smaller than expected quarterly loss, strong EBITDA growth and margin expansion, supported by demand for differentiated seed technologies and productivity improvements, alongside reaffirmed FY guidance and the successful completion of its separation. Q3 EPS -0.42 (exp. -0.52), Q3 revenue USD 911mln (exp. 918mln). Completed its separation on schedule and below budget, establishing Vylor as a standalone company. CEO Chuck Magro highlighted strong YTD performance, meaningful adj. EBITDA growth and margin expansion, supported by demand for differentiated seed technologies, productivity improvements and disciplined commercial execution. Management noted constructive agricultural market conditions, supported by strong global grain and oilseed demand, improving crop prices and growing biofuel consumption, although tight farmer margins, El Nino-related weather risks and trade uncertainty remain potential headwinds. Maintains FY26 adj. pro forma operating EPS guidance between 2.25-2.35 (exp. 2.31). Reaffirms confidence in its FY29 financial framework.
  • Hancock Whitney (HWC), Trustmark (TRMK) - Hancock Whitney agreed to acquire Trustmark in a USD 3.2bln deal, which is expected to close in Q1 2027.

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

  • PVH (PVH) - PVH plans to cut its global workforce by approximately 4%, targeting at least USD 100mln in net pretax cost reductions.
  • Chinese Automakers - Voestalpine (VLPNY) CEO Herbert Eibensteiner expects Chinese carmakers’ European expansion to support struggling local suppliers, the FT reports. BYD’s (BYDDY) Hungarian factory presents a potential new customer, while Stellantis (STLA), Ford (F) and Xpeng (XPEV) are pursuing Chinese partnerships or European production. Proposed EU rules requiring 70% locally sourced components could accelerate investment.
  • Burberry (BURBY) - Reported H1 revenue GBP 1.09bln (prev. 1.03bln), adj. operating profit of GBP 62mln (exp. 44mln); Q2 comp sales rose 4% (exp. 3%), driven by US and Chinese demand, particularly Gen Z shoppers. Wholesale revenue increased 17%, ahead of guidance, with FY27 growth projected at 10-12%.

CONSUMER STAPLES

  • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) - Launched a USD 2bln underwritten public offering of common stock.
  • Kraft Heinz (KHC) - Plans a turnaround built on cheesy ramen and high-protein Jell-O, WSJ reports.

ENERGY

  • ExxonMobil (XOM) - ExxonMobil is evaluating seven Venezuelan oil areas under a non-binding agreement with state-owned PDVSA, Reuters reports. The deal grants Exxon one year of exclusive negotiations, focusing on the Orinoco Belt. Russian stakes in some projects remain unresolved. Exxon reiterated that its investment requires stable policies, clear regulations, strong protections and competitive returns.

MATERIALS

  • BHP Group (BHP) - BHP announced the appointment of Adrian Wood as its new CFO, succeeding Vandita Pant, who will remain with the company temporarily to support the transition.
  • H.B. Fuller (FUL) - H.B. Fuller outlined progress on its supply chain transformation, targeting substantial cost savings through factory closures, manufacturing consolidation, distribution network optimisation and lower operating costs, alongside reduced future capital expenditure and improved energy efficiency.
  • Corteva (CTVA) - Corteva shares fell in extended US trading following weaker than expected quarterly earnings and revenue, alongside downgraded FY profit guidance, reflected deteriorating Crop Protection demand in Brazil amid farmer liquidity constraints, elevated financing costs, cautious purchasing and increased pricing pressure. Q3 adj. EPS 0.06 (exp. 0.10), Q3 revenue USD 1.59bln (exp. 1.77bln). Results were impacted by weaker Crop Protection demand in Brazil, reflecting farmer liquidity constraints, elevated financing costs, just-in-time purchasing and increased pricing pressure. Demand for differentiated new products remained strong, with resilient performance and broad-based organic growth outside Latin America. US acetochlor pricing remained in line with expectations. Lowers FY26 adj. pro forma operating EPS guidance to between 0.76-0.80 (exp. 1.07), reflecting increased pressure in Latin America.

INDUSTRIALS

  • Gas Turbines - China is accelerating domestic gas turbine development to challenge GE Vernova (GEV), Siemens (SIEGY) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHVIY) as AI-driven demand creates global shortages, and comes as major suppliers face delivery delays exceeding five years, Bloomberg reports. Beijing targets an independent supply chain by 2030. The article notes that Dongfang Electric (DNGFF) secured a 2.1GW order from a Canadian data centre developer, while Shanghai Electric (SIELY) won a Malaysian contract.
  • Siemens (SIEGY) - Q4 net income EUR 2.16bln (vs 1.80bln Y/Y), Q4 revenue EUR 23.7bln (exp. 23.44bln). For the FY26, revenue rose by +8% Y/Y to EUR 83.4bln, while comparable orders +25% Y/Y to a record EUR 108bln, lifting its order backlog to EUR 143bln. Smart Infrastructure orders +40%, supported by strong data centre demand in the US and Europe, while Digital Industries’ profit margin improved to 20.9% amid stronger automation and industrial software demand. Mobility recorded quarterly record orders, including a EUR 2.4bln German high-speed rail contract. It proposes increasing its annual dividend to EUR 5.50/shr. CEO highlighted industrial AI as a significant growth opportunity, supported by the company’s One Tech Company transformation strategy. Sees FY27 comparable revenue growth of up to 11%, with Digital Industries growth of up to 12%, Smart Infrastructure up to 13% and Mobility up to 8%. Raises medium-term comparable revenue growth target to up to 11% (prev. saw up to 9%). Plans to distribute a 34.1% stake in Siemens Healthineers to shareholders, equivalent to one Healthineers share for every two Siemens shares, subject to approval in February 2027.
  • United Airlines (UAL) - United Airlines will prohibit AI agents from booking flights through its systems, citing customer data risks, unintended purchases and regulatory concerns, WSJ reports. Meanwhile, United Airlines expects 64% of its daily flights to have SpaceX (SPCX) Starlink by end-2026, and anticipates 6.6mln customers will travel over the Thanksgiving holiday.
  • JetBlue (JBLU) - Around 55% of JetBlue’s lenders have signed a cooperation agreement preventing separate deals with the airline, Bloomberg reports. The group holds 2031 bonds and first-lien debt, while minority creditors are negotiating a separate pact. Elevated fuel costs have intensified financial pressure, although CFO Ursula Hurley reiterated that JetBlue is not considering bankruptcy.
  • BAE Systems (BAESY) - Reported strong operational and financial performance YTD, with orders secured totalling GBP 33bln; confirmed its FY26 outlook, and said it remains well positioned for continued growth over the medium term.
  • Rolls Royce (RYCEY) - Confirmed it remains on track to meet its FY26 guidance, citing strong progress this year and continued defence demand across established and new programmes. It announced an accelerated interim share buyback of GBP 1.5bln, and plans to revisit its medium-term targets alongside FY results in February.
  • Hapag Lloyd (HPGLY) - Reported Q3 revenue of USD 6.9bln (prev. 5.5bln Y/Y), EBITDA of USD 1.7bln (prev. 866mln Y/Y), and net profit of USD 1bln (prev. 172mln Y/Y); higher freight rates and terminal growth supported earnings. It raised FY26 EBITDA guidance to USD 4.6-5.0bln and EBIT guidance to USD 2.0-2.4bln.

HEALTHCARE

  • Eli Lilly (LLY) - Won Chinese approval for orforglipron, the first oral GLP-1 receptor agonist cleared for weight management in China, giving it a head start over Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) in the country’s obesity treatment market
  • Pfizer (PFE), Blackstone (BX) - Pfizer and Blackstone Life Sciences agreed a co-funding arrangement under which Blackstone will provide up to USD 1.5bln through 2028 for berobenatide, an investigational monthly GLP-1 obesity treatment. Blackstone will receive milestone-based payments contingent on US regulatory approval of monthly injectable monotherapy and achievement of specified commercial sales targets.
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Reiterated it expects 2026 revenue growth of 15% to 25% (prev. 10%), and is on track to achieve approximately 10ppts of gross margin expansion in 2026, excluding the litigation settlement charge. Meanwhile, Moderna is to join the MSCI World Index as part of MSCI’s November 2026 review, effective after the close on November 30th
  • Merck KGaA (MKKGY) - Q3 adj. net income EUR 450mln (vs 898mln Y/Y), Q3 revenue EUR 5.63bln (exp. 5.46bln), Q3 EBITDA before special items EUR 1.68bln (exp. 1.61bln). Net income decline reflected one-off gains in the prior-year period. All three business divisions delivered organic growth, led by Electronics and Life Science, supported by strong demand for semiconductor materials and pharmaceutical-process services. Healthcare benefited from rare-disease treatments but continued to face patent-expiry pressures, including Mavenclad. Raises FY26 adj. EPS guidance to between 8.30-8.70 (prev. saw 7.90-8.60), revenue to between EUR 21.5-21.9bln (prev. saw 21.0-21.8bln), and EBITDA before special items to between EUR 6.2-6.4bln (prev. saw 5.9-6.3bln), marking the third guidance upgrade this year.
  • Roche (RHHBY) - Roche plans to market its investigational breast-cancer pill giredestrant as Wilserdly, pending regulatory approval, Bloomberg reports. The FDA granted priority review for early-stage disease, with a decision due 30th November, and advanced cancer treatment alongside everolimus, due in December.

UTILITIES

  • Southern Company (SO) - Plans a public offering of 35mln equity units at USD 50 each, for a total of USD 1.75bln.

POLITICS/GEOPOLITICS

  • US-Iran - US President Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran, adding that those days have long passed as the US has Iran's money, hundreds of billions of dollars, and its Strait. In the same post, Trump said he has asked Vice President Vance to focus his full attention on alleged corruption and crime in Democrat-run cities and states, which potentially implies Vance will not meet Iran's Rezaei. That would come after the WSJ reported Vance was considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official as he emerges as the lead negotiator with Iran, with Trump having reportedly told aides he is open to Vance restarting talks and empowered him to negotiate, although discussions remained preliminary. Energy benchmarks rose following the post, to the detriment of equities and fixed income.
  • Trump Administration Corruption - Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin plans sweeping investigations into alleged Trump administration corruption when Democrats take control of Congress, the FT reports. Potential targets include presidential pardons, tariff exemptions, Elon Musk’s (SPCX/TSLA) government efficiency initiative, Donald Trump Jr’s 1789 Capital, and Jared Kushner’s diplomatic role. Raskin warned that pursuing impeachment could distract from wider investigations.
  • China-Taiwan - Chinese President Xi said resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving complete reunification remains an unwavering historical mission of the Chinese Communist Party. He pledged to leave no room for Taiwan independence activities in any form, while fully considering Taiwan’s circumstances and the interests and sentiments of its people.
  • US-China/Russia - The State Department confirmed that US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang at Beijing’s request about Trump’s upcoming APEC visit to China and Xi Jinping’s planned G20 visit to Florida. They reaffirmed commitments to strategic stability, mutual respect and reciprocity, and discussed potential trilateral leader-level talks with Russia addressing peace and denuclearisation.
  • Iran-Oman - Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Press TV reports. Iran stated that the US should withdraw if it considers the waterway irrelevant to its interests. It also said seven Iranian conditions must be met for negotiations to continue and the strait to reopen.

MACRO

  • ECB President - France may back Spain’s Pablo Hernandez de Cos as next ECB president, the FT reports. A potential leadership deal would give Germany the chief economist post and France the markets portfolio, with Laurence Boone a leading French candidate. EU leaders will discuss nominations in Dublin on Friday, although Dutch contender and former ECB member Klaas Knot remains in contention.
  • BoJ - BoJ dove Toichiro Asada urged caution over further rate hikes, warning that weak consumption and inflation not necessarily driven by demand could make tightening counterproductive. Asada opposed September’s increase. Markets price an approximately 80% probability of another hike in December.
  • JPY - Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura warned that the JPY’s rapid depreciation towards 160 vs the USD could prompt renewed intervention. The currency has come under renewed pressure in recent days amid rising Fed rate hike expectations.
  • German Budget - Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD coalition agreed to postpone sugary drink and plastic packaging taxes until 2028, retain benefits for low-income children and shelve broader electricity-tax cuts; the compromise clears the way for the 2027 budget, although delayed levies would have raised over EUR 2bln annually. The 2027 budget can still comply with constitutional borrowing limits, supported by approximately EUR 4bln in remaining reserves; however, tapping this buffer would make budgets from 2028 onwards significantly harder to balance.
  • Netherlands - The Dutch government faces potential collapse after the People’s Party threatened to quit PM Jetten’s minority coalition over a proposed shift in taxation from income to wealth. Coalition partners D66 and the Christian Democrats negotiated the amendment with left-wing opposition parties. Thursday’s vote could trigger either a coalition withdrawal or a no-confidence motion.
  • RBNZ - The RBNZ said New Zealand insurers would require severe combined shocks to breach solvency requirements, demonstrating sector resilience. Its reverse stress test covered five life and three health insurers, representing over 70% of sector premiums. Key risks included pandemics, reinsurance disruption, investment losses and rising medical costs. The exercise prompted improvements in capital triggers, cyber protection and recovery planning.
  • UK Growth - UK GDP grew 0.7% Q/Q in Q3 (exp. 0.7%; prev. 0.5%) and 1.9% Y/Y (exp. 1.9%; prev. 1.4%); September output rose 0.2% M/M (exp. flat), with annual growth of 2.1% (exp. 1.9%). Business services and AI-related spending supported growth. The data points to a UK economy that has proved more resilient than expected from the Iran-war energy shock. Analysts say that the stronger growth increases pressure on the BoE to raise rates again in December, however, inflation approaching 5% and rising household energy bills threatens consumption ahead.
  • UK Resi Market - The UK RICS house price balance fell to -36 in October (exp. -34; prev. -34 revised). Expected sales over the next 12 months dropped to -17, their weakest since July 2023, while surveyors anticipate house prices declining 1% over the coming year. Mortgage rates near 6% continue to weigh on demand.

TRADE

  • UK-EU - The EU and UK are considering delaying 10% tariffs on electric vehicles due from 1st January 2027 as regional battery supply chains lag, the FT reports. Brussels is weighing a one-year postponement or a two-year compliance-offset scheme.
  • US-Mexico - Mexico’s steel imports from countries without free-trade agreements, mostly in Asia, fell over 27% in 9-months 2026 to USD 1.7bln amid higher tariffs and anti-dumping measures. Shipments from China, South Korea and Taiwan fell 17%, 29% and 38%, respectively. Mexico aims to increase US purchases and secure US tariffs below 15% through negotiations.

What it means

The sheet is dominated by an event with few clean precedents: a board weighing the removal of a founder-CEO at the largest weight in the major indices, on personal-conduct grounds layered over a national-security investigation. Historically, forced founder departures at mega-caps have followed a recognisable sequence, interim CEO appointment, an extended external search, and a downgrade cascade built less on earnings than on multiple compression and succession risk, and the broker actions overnight (Evercore, Bernstein, William Blair, Oppenheimer all cutting, with PTs roughly halved) fit that pattern. The compounding thread is the export-control angle: congressional pressure, diversion crackdowns and Chinese stockpiling mean the governance story and the China revenue story now trade as one, which is what separates this from a pure scandal episode. The second-order read-through to the AI complex runs through the financing channel rather than demand: CoreWeave's reported USD 4bln-plus IG loan at 7.0-7.5% indicative, Nebius's prepayment-funded capex model, and Alphabet's debut HKD/SGD bonds all sit in the same shift of AI buildout funding into credit markets, where pricing and appetite are the tells. The macro backdrop is heavier than a typical session: a full Fedspeak slate with several voters, a 30-year auction, jawboning on JPY toward 160 from Tokyo, and a hawkish repricing risk out of the UK after a firm GDP print, with Moscow and Hormuz headlines the tail risks into the close. Worth watching are whether the board moves to an interim appointment before the weekend and whether the NVDA downgrade round extends to the semi supply chain (Hon Hai's beat and AMD's upgrade on the leadership-vacuum angle show the peer divergence already in play).

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