CRUDE WRAP: WTI (X6) SETTLES USD 1.89 HIGHER AT 93.74/BBL; BRENT (Z6) SETTLES USD 1.93 HIGHER AT 106.65/BBL

The crude complex saw gains amid renewed Middle East uncertainty, but also as Ukraine/Russia tensions ramped up. On the latter, Trump announced a US/Russia energy deal on Friday after crude settlement, and offered further punchy rhetoric over the weekend. Following this, Ukrainian President Zelensky said today that Russia attacked Ukraine following Trump's announcement, and in the winter, if Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will respond; added Russia has violated the Trump energy ceasefire. Overnight, power outages were reported in Ukraine after Russian strikes in the east of the country, despite Trump's announcement. Into settlement, WTI and Brent came slightly off highs, as they ground higher all day, after Russia's Novak, on diesel supply deal with Trump, stated there are talks between governments of Russia and US on supply and that they have possibility to make additional supplies of diesel on global markets, and by year-end Russia may reach 3-3.5mln tons of diesel exports.

In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia's energy minister has vowed a "serious" response to the deadly attacks on its oil and gas facilities by Yemen's Houthis, and Trump said he would "make a decision" about the US joining Saudi Arabia's strikes on the Houthis. On supply, Saudi Aramco's CEO warned that global crude supply remains severely tight, and upside in benchmarks was seen as Saudi Energy Ministry expects it will take 2-3 years to increase oil pipeline capacity to 10mln BPD. Note, on 6th October, Saudi Energy Minister said 5.8mln BPD was flowing through the East-West pipeline, with operations resumed around five days after the hit.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said exchanges of messages with the US continue via intermediaries, and Tehran is still reviewing US positions and will respond via intermediaries once the review is complete. On this, US reportedly accepted some of Tehran's 7 conditions in a response conveyed via the Qatari intermediary, but Iran deems this insufficient.

WTI traded between USD 89.61-94.36/bbl and Brent USD 102.33-107.33/bbl.

Sessions where crude grinds higher on two simultaneous geopolitical premiums have a familiar anatomy: a supply-disruption risk in the Gulf and a sanctions-or-strike risk around Russia, each pricing through a different channel. The Saudi/Houthi leg is the classic infrastructure premium, where rallies driven by attacks on facilities have historically faded quickly once throughput proves resilient, as the East-West pipeline rerouting has repeatedly demonstrated; the distinction worth drawing is between attacks that dent flows and attacks that merely threaten them, since only the former holds gains past the first few sessions. The Russia/Ukraine leg is murkier: ceasefire announcements followed by reported violations have tended to whipsaw the complex rather than trend it, and Russian signals about additional diesel supply lean in the opposite direction to the geopolitical bid, capping product cracks rather than feeding them. The late fade into settlement on Novak's comments fits the established pattern of headline-driven sessions handing back gains once supply-assurance rhetoric crosses. The follow-ons that have mattered in comparable episodes are physical confirmation rather than rhetoric: loadings and freight rates out of the Gulf, insurance premia, and whether the Saudi response to the Houthis involves US participation, which historically marks the escalation threshold that sustains a premium. Iran back-channel messaging remains a slow-burn variable, typically expressed through sanction-enforcement expectations rather than outright supply math.