BoE's Greene says the risks of second-round effects are quite significant

BoE's Greene says the risks of second-round effects are quite significant.

Warnings about second-round effects are the standard vocabulary of the hawkish wing of the MPC, and Greene has consistently sat on that side of the committee, having been among the last to vote for easing in prior deliberations. Remarks of this kind from a single external member typically move front-end SONIA and gilt pricing only at the margin; what has historically repriced the UK path is whether such language foreshadows the centre of the committee, since the MPC has swung on one-vote margins more than once. The distinction is between rhetoric that hardens the hold case and rhetoric that implies the cutting cycle is nearer its floor than priced; second-round talk, pointing to wages and services inflation, is the latter. The tells are whether the chief economist or the consensus-centrist members adopt similar phrasing, and how the remarks sit against the next wage and services CPI prints, which have tended to be the decisive inputs for this committee. As commentary rather than a vote, the signal is directional: hawkish tail, not yet the median.