[ANALYSIS] Greek Elections: New Democracy just shy of an outright majority, incumbent PM Mitsotakis looks to round two
Analysis details (08:45)
First Round Result
- Incumbent PM Mitsotakis’ New Democracy (ND) party has secured around 41% of the vote or some 146 seats and as such five shy of the 151/300 needed for an outright majority. Mitsotakis has called the unexpected margin of victory a “political earthquake” and shows the nation wants a majority government.
- Syrzia surprisingly came in at a distant second place with just 20% of the vote or 71 seats, around 20-25 seats shy of polls predictions in the days before the election.
Round Two
- Given the majority of ND’s victory, Mitsotakis has made clear that he will not be entering into coalition discussions and as such the timeline now turns to early July for the next election.
- In this round, a semi-proportional or sliding-scale system will be used (as voted for in 2020) which will award a bonus of between 20 and 50 seats for the winning party depending on how much of the vote they receive. 20 seats are awarded for 25% and 50 seats for 40% of the vote with a sliding scale between those bounds.
- A system which will almost certainly result in a significant outright majority for ND and a continuation of Mitsotakis’ government. Note, the exact date for the next election is yet to be confirmed.
Market Reaction
- Given the likely continuation of the incumbent government with a likely larger-than-expected majority rule GGBs are bid this morning and the 10yr yield has slipped to 3.92% from Friday’s 3.99% close. A move which is as expected given the increasingly constructive outlook on Greece and a likely return to investment grade at three of the four major rating agencies by H1-2024.
- Additionally, the Athens stock index is up over 6% this morning following the first round results.
Rating Schedule
- Fitch (BB+, Stable): 9th June and 1st December
- Moody’s (Ba3, Positive): 15th September
- S&P (BB+, Positive): 20th October
- DBRS (BBH, Stable): 9th September
22 May 2023 - 08:45- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk
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