US Employment Situation Report Preview May 2017
01 Jun 2017, 18:44
EXPECTATIONS:- The consensus looks for 185k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in May, compared to 211k added in April. That would be in line with the 185k/month pace seen in 2017 thus far.- The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.40%, beneath the FOMC’s NAIRU projection between 4.70% and 5.00% (made in its March forecasts). It would also be firmer than the Fed’s end-2017 forecast for unemployment of 4.50%.EARNINGS DATA:-...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 01.06.17
01 Jun 2017, 06:59
- Asian equities saw mixed performance with the Nikkei 225 supported by domestic data while soft Caixin PMI weighed on the Shanghai Comp.
- AUD underperformed due to soft Chinese data despite strong Australian numbers. Polls remain in focus for GBP
- Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone and UK Mfg. PMI, ADP, ISM Mfg. PMI, DoEs and a slew of central bank...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 31.05.17
31 May 2017, 06:54
- The latest YouGov has projected the UK Conservative party to fall 16 seats short of an overall majority with 310 seats
- Asian equities traded relatively mixed as China returned to market and was greeted by encouraging PMI data
- Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone CPI, Canadian GDP, Chicago PMI, ECB’s Coeure, Lautenschlager, Fed’s...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 30.05.17
30 May 2017, 07:04
- EUR saw pressure overnight amid reports Greece could opt out of their next payment if creditors fail to agree on debt relief
- Asian equities were relatively subdued overnight due to holiday-thinned trading conditions
- Looking ahead, highlights include German regional & national CPIs, US Personal Spending, PCE data
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 29.05.17
29 May 2017, 06:55
Asian equities saw an indecisive session amid holiday-thinned conditions while North Korea conducted another missile testFX markets were also relatively rangebound with the USD-index holding onto Friday’s gainsLooking ahead, highlights include ECB’s Draghi. UK and US markets closed.**Desk will shut at 1630BST on Monday 29th and reopen at 2200BST for Asia-Pac Coverage on May 29th. (See website for full...
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The early part of the week will see lower liquidity with the US and UK markets closed on Monday, and China away on both Monday and Tuesday.US: -While the market is almost certain that the FOMC will hike rates by 25bps at its mid-June meeting, Fed Funds Futures are still only implying a rate of around 1.25% in January 2018, indicating doubts around the Fed’s March guidance that it is on course to lift rates to 1.25-1.50% in 2017.In particular, per the Fed’s May...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 26.05.17
26 May 2017, 06:54
- Asian equities traded broadly softer with underperformance in the ASX amid OPEC-inspired softness in energy names
- GBP/USD trades softer as the Labour Party continues to gain ground on the Conservatives ahead of next month’s election
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, University of Michigan and ECB’s Coeure
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 25.05.17
25 May 2017, 07:19
- FOMC Minutes saw USD and treasury yields back up after the FOMC thought it was prudent to wait for further evidence that recent weak data was transitory before hiking again
- The subsequent upside in US equities filtered tspanough to Asia-Pac trade while WTI and Brent crude saw mild gains ahead of OPEC
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, OPEC Meeting, Fed’s Brainard and ECB’s...
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RANsquawk’s Quick Take On The Federal Reserve’s May Meeting Minutes
24 May 2017, 20:02
Key Points: -- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) thought it was prudent to wait for further evidence that recent weak data was transitory before hiking again.- Officials said they expected weakness would pass and that it would “soon be appropriate” to raise rates if those expectations were met.- In general, Fed officials said their assessment of the economy had changed little since the March policy meeting, with the labour market continuing to improve and risks...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 24.05.17
24 May 2017, 06:54
- Asian bourses traded mixed with downside in Chinese indices after Moody’s downgraded China’s Sovereign rating
- UK PM May said UK terror tspaneat level has been raised to critical from severe, which suggests a further attack could be imminent
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits, Existing Home Sales, DoE Inventories, FOMC Minutes, BoC Rate Decision, ECB’s Praet and Draghi ...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 23.05.17
23 May 2017, 06:55
- Asian equities traded with a mildly cautious tone amid reports of a terrorist incident in Manchester with macro newsflow otherwise light
- In FX, reports of the Manchester explosion triggered safe-haven flows into JPY with USD/JPY briefly falling below 111.00, while GBP/JPY was the notable underperformer
- Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone PMIs, German IFO and a slew of central bank...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 22.05.17
22 May 2017, 06:56
- Asian equities traded mostly higher despite ongoing geopolitical concerns with outperformance in the ASX amid upside in energy and material names
- GBP/USD slipped back below 1.3000 as PM May’s lead in the latest YouGov poll narrowed
- Looking ahead, highlights include Fed’s Kashkari and Harker
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 19.05.17
19 May 2017, 06:54
- Asian equities traded with little in the way of firm direction amid light newsflow after US stocks posted a modest rebound from Wednesday’s losses
- GBP staged another ‘flash crash’ falling around 100 pips in 12 seconds during US hours amid no new fundamental news
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian retail sales, ECB’s Praet, Coeure, Constancio and Fed’s...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 18.05.17
18 May 2017, 06:55
- Asian equities took the lead from their US counterparts whereby sentiment was hampered by the ongoing political tensions in Washington
- Subsequently, the USD-index continued to drift lower while chances of a June Fed hike begin to recede
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK retail sales, Philadelphia manufacturing, Fed’s Bullard, Mester, ECB’s Mersch, Draghi and...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 17.05.17
17 May 2017, 06:56
- Asian equities traded with caution after US equity futures saw pressure following the latest developments in the FBI saga
- JPY strengthened as the cautious tone triggered flows into safe-haven assets which saw USD/JPY break firmly below 113.00
- Looking ahead, highlights include the UK labour report, Eurozone CPI and the DoE Inventory report
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 16.05.17
16 May 2017, 06:55
- Asian equities failed to benefit from the energy-inspired gains seen on Wall Street with the Nikkei 225 stopping just shy of 20,000
- USD/JPY and JPY-crosses traded choppy with the early upside reversed, as sentiment soured and spurred flows into safe-haven JPY
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK inflation, German ZEW, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, ECB’s Nowotny and...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 15.05.17
15 May 2017, 06:55
- Asian equities traded with no firm direction as the region digested mixed Chinese data and mounting geopolitical tensions
- In FX, JPY was supported by safe-haven flows while NZD was lifted by upbeat domestic retail sales
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and ECB’s Praet
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 12.05.17
12 May 2017, 06:55
- Overnight trade saw an overall lack of pertinent macro newsflow with Asian equities subsequently trading with little in the way of firm direction
- Similar price action was also observed in FX markets with GBP/USD unable to recoup yesterday’s BoE-inspired losses
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Retail Sales, Uni. Of Michigan, Fed’s Evans, Harker and ECB’s...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 11.05.17
11 May 2017, 06:58
- NZD/USD fell over a point to 11-month lows as the RBNZ struck a more dovish than anticipated tone and remained in favour of accommodative policy
- Asian equities were kept afloat by upside in energy names in the wake of yesterday’s DoE report
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production, BoE policy announcement, ECB’s Constancio, Praet and Fed’s...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 10.05.17
10 May 2017, 06:58
- Asian equities traded modestly higher, sspanugging off some of the North-Korean inspired geopolitical concerns seen late in the US session
- The USD-index pulled back from recent advances which provided some reprieve for its major counterparts and saw EUR/USD approach 1.0900
- Looking ahead, highlights include DoEs, RBNZ rate decision, ECB’s Draghi and Fed’s...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 09.05.17
09 May 2017, 06:55
- Asian equities traded with little in the way of firm direction with macro newsflow particularly light overnight
- USD held onto yesterday’s gains as the USD-index remained above the 99.00 level while AUD underperformed amid downbeat domestic retail sales
- Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS, APIs, Fed’s Kaplan and Rosengren
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 08.05.17
08 May 2017, 06:54
- French Presidential Candidate Macron became the President Elect after he won the 2nd round run-off
- Asian equities traded mostly higher with outperformance in the Nikkei 225 as Japanese participants returned from holiday
- Looking ahead, highlights include potential comments from Fed’s Bullard and Mester
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WEEK IN FOCUS: French Election To Set The Tone Early Doors, With Questions Surrounding Growing Dissent Within The BoE
05 May 2017, 19:47
The final round of the French election will set the tone early in the week. Centrist independent Emmanuel Macron and the far-right National Front’s leader Marine Le Pen face off, with the polls set to close at 20:00 CET on Sunday 7th May. Polls have hovered around a 60:40 split in favour of Macron for some time now although there is a notable amount of “undecided” voters, with a low participation rate expected. Exit polls are expected to be released by mainstream media shortly after 20:00 CET.Chinese...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 05.05.17
05 May 2017, 06:55
- Asia equity markets traded negative amid commodity weakness in which oil continued its sell-off, while the looming US NFP data also added to the subdued tone
- The greenback’s attempts to nurse recent losses were futile, with the USD-index contained below the 99.00 level.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report, Fed’s Fischer, Williams, Evans, Yellen and...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 04.05.17
04 May 2017, 06:58
- The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected while maintaining an overall upbeat view of the economy and labour market
- This subsequently provided support to the USD with USD/JPY moving closer to 113.00 and EUR/USD below 1.0900
- Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone services PMIs, Norges Bank rate decision, US trade data, factory orders and a slew of ECB speakers