[ROLLING ANALYSIS] US President Trump did not sign reciprocal tariffs order on Wednesday; Trump is to sign executive orders on Thursday at 13:00EST/18:00GMT

RECIPROCAL TARIFFS 

THE LATEST

• US President Trump did not sign reciprocal tariffs order on Wednesday after stating that he may, while the White House schedule showed President Trump is to sign executive orders on Thursday at 13:00EST/18:00GMT.
• White House Press Secretary responded that she believes reciprocal tariff will come before Indian PM Modi's visit on Thursday and she will let the President discuss details on the reciprocal tariffs front.
• US House speaker Johnson said he believes the White House is considering exemptions to reciprocal tariffs including autos and pharmaceuticals.

WHAT WE KNOW (Via WSJ)

• Timing: Trump plans to impose reciprocal tariffs as soon as this week (no confirmation) using executive action, bypassing Congress.
• Trump to impose reciprocal tariffs via executive action: The administration will match tariffs imposed on US exports by other nations
• Peter Navarro: Navarro is said to be the leading advocate for the reciprocal-tariffs. Peter Navarro has previously been described as a "trade hawk".

Who could be impacted: 

• EM countries likely to be hit hardest – Nations such as India, Brazil, Vietnam, Argentina, and other Southeast Asian and African economies have placed higher tariffs on US goods, particularly on agricultural commodities and autos.
• Large economies (such as Japan, the EU, and China) may have lower official tariff rates, they employ non-tariff barriers such as subsidies, VAT systems, and regulations that disadvantage US companies. The Trump administration is expected to factor in these barriers when calculating reciprocal tariffs, meaning these regions could face even steeper trade penalties beyond a simple tariff match, according to WSJ sources. 

Potential legal basis for tariffs:

• Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 – Allows tariffs against unfair trade practices.
• Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 – Permits tariffs of up to 50% on nations that discriminate against US businesses.
• International Emergency Economic Powers Act – Could be invoked if Trump declares a national emergency, though this carries legal risks