[ROLLING ANALYSIS] Tariff update: US "Liberation Day"; US President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs at 16:00EDT/21:00BST on Wednesday

"LIBERATION DAY": What we know

ANNOUNCEMENT TIMINGS

• White House said US President Trump to deliver remarks in Rose Garden at 21:00BST/16:00EDT on Wednesday.

POTENTIAL TARIFF OPTIONS

CNBC's Casella said there are three main options that US President Trump is looking at:   

• 1) Blanket 20% tariffs


• 2) tiered system of three different rates


• 3) country-by-country rates.

One official cited by CNBC said the first option was "less likely than the other two". CNBC also said the 'goal' is country-based tariffs. 

• Pharma, semiconductor and other tariffs would be announced later.


• Canada/Mexico fentanyl tariffs expected to be lifted. 


• Secondary tariffs on Venezuela to go into effect. Auto tariffs scheduled to go into effect.


• CNBC said there could be some tariffs that take effect later and she believes Trump will leave room for negotiating.


• CNBC believes it will be a mix of policies and that there will be some off-ramps.

TARIFF IMPLEMENTATION DATES

• White House Press Secretary Leavitt said US President Trump was with the trade and tariff team, while she added that car tariffs go into effect on April 3rd and that Trump has made up his mind on tariffs.


• Leavitt also said reciprocal tariffs will take effect immediately after the announcement and that a few countries have called to discuss tariffs.
  

OTHER REPORTS

• 
  USTR reportedly prepares a new tariff option for US President Trump which is "an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option", according to WSJ.


• 
  US President Trump's tariff plans are "coming down to the wire" with his team reportedly still finalising the size and scope of the new levies, according to Bloomberg.


• 
  US Treasury Secretary Bessent told lawmakers that Wednesday's tariffs are a 'cap', according to a CNBC reporter cited by Reuters.

REMINDER: 

• Weekend reports suggested US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post.

JPM TARIFF SCENARIO ANALYSIS

BROAD BASED SCENARIOS:

• 
  10% tariff - assuming a blanket 10% that also cancels/replaces Canada/Mexico tariffs but not China... SPX +2-2.5%, 10y yield higher by ~10bps, EUR/USD falls to 106-107 (currently 1.08).


• 
  25% tariff - SPX declines 1.25-1.75%, 10y yield falls 12-14bps, EUR/USD and falling to 1.03-1.05, as USD behaves as a safety haven


• 
  35% tariff - SPX declines 2-3%, 10y yield falls 20bps, EUR/USD falls to 1.01-1.03

On EU sectors vs. tariffs, JPM expect:

• 
  EU Pharma: Potential US tariffs expected to have a manageable impact, though many questions remain unanswered around key details.


• 
  Global Spirits: Financial impact likely to be substantial, ranging JPME 8-48% on annual EBIT. Believe mitigation through pricing will be limited, given sector has already derated YTD < asymmetric risk rewards if tariffs delayed/scrapped.


• 
  EU Autos: If tariffs go ahead, on avg. c. 25% earnings cut to its FY25 estimates for German OEMs and Stellantis. JPM add this is the lower bound of impact.

Overall, JPM remain tactically bearish.

• Notes a "good" outcome looks like a low (10% or less) blanket tariff does not include VAT with a stated willingness to discuss sectoral tariffs which include 25% on aluminium/steel, 25% on autos, 200% on champagne/wine from EU, and potentially 25% on chips and pharmas. Moreover, avoiding tariffs on shipping vessels would be a positive.


• A "bad" outcome sees a higher than expected blanket tariff, which includes VAT, plus additional sectoral tariffs. Further, any bans on sales or the implementation of fines/tariffs on shipping vessels would be a materially worse outcome, for example a full ban on chip sales to China. Reports suggest NVDA received c. 17% of its FY24 rev. from China.

TARIFF TIMELINE

• 
  February 1st - Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% tariffs on all imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada starting Feb 4th.


• 
  February 3rd - Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on tariffs against Canada and Mexico.


• 
  February 4th - US additional 10% tariff on China on top of existing levies came into effect. Chinese export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium took effect (no specific countries mentioned).


• 
  February 10th - Chinese tariffs against the US took effect (15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil).


• 
  February 13th - Trump signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed the implementation.


• 
  March 4th - Tariff pause on Mexico and Canada expired; Additional 10% tariffs on China went into effect on top of Feb 4th tariffs. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs over 21 days, Mexico said it will also respond with retaliatory tariffs.


• 
  March 5th - Trump allowed a one-month exemption on Mexico and Canada tariffs of US automakers following talks with Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP)


• 
  March 6th - Trump postponed the initial 25% tariffs on several imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada for a month. In response, Canada suspended its second wave of retaliatory tariffs.


• 
  March 10th - China's retaliatory tariffs on certain US agricultural imports (15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products) went into effect; announced on March 4th in response to the extra 10% US tariff on top of Feb 4th tariffs.


• 
  March 11th - Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canada, although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario's Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity. Trump separately suggested tariffs may go higher than 25% but did not specify which tariffs.


• 
  March 12th - 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect, with "no exceptions or exemptions"; European Commission launched countermeasures on US imports while it is putting forward a package of new countermeasures.


• 
  April 1st - Completion of the US trade policy review.


• 
  April 2nd - US Liberation Day; 1) Auto tariffs "in the neighbourhood of 25%" comes into effect, 2) US tariffs on "external" agricultural products to go into effect, 3) Temporary tariff relief for Canada and Mexico expires. 4) Reciprocal tariffs kick in - details to be unveiled on the day; US President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs at 16:00EDT/21:00BST.
  


• 
  April 3rd - Mexico President Sheinbaum says response to US tariffs will be on April 3rd.


• 
  April 5th - Deadline for TikTok deal.


• 
  April 13th - EU countermeasures against 25% steel and aluminium tariff to be fully in place.


• 
  TBC - pharma and semiconductors tariffs.

Analysis details (06:35)

"LIBERATION DAY" EVE HEADLINES

• 
  White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% (prev. touted 15%) on at least most imports to the United States, according to WaPo sources. Several options are on the table and no final decision has been made. One option would raise import duties on products from virtually every country, rejecting more targeted approaches. If combined with additional tariffs on sectors such as automobile and pharmaceutical imports, raise more than USD 6tln. Administration officials are also discussing using this revenue to finance a tax rebate or dividend payment to most Americans; planning is "highly preliminary". The White House is also still considering an order that would apply a different tariff rate to individual countries.


• 
  US President Trump said we will see tariff details maybe Tuesday night or on Wednesday which are going to be nice in comparison to other countries and in some cases, they may be substantially lower. Trump also stated that many countries have been looting the US and they will stop that on April 2nd, as well as noted there will be investments worth USD 5tln in the US. Furthermore, he stated that TikTok is not tied to a larger tariff deal but could be.


• 
  US President Trump is said to be still deciding which plan he will take for reciprocal tariffs and has been presented with "multiple" tariff plans, according to administration sources cited by FBN's Lawrence, while sources said Trump will likely not make the decision on which plan until right before April 2nd or on that morning.


• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST on Wednesday. However, the White House later announced it would be at 16:00EDT/21:00BST.


• White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated there will be a Rose Garden event on Wednesday for the Trump tariff plan and that Trump is committed to sectoral tariffs.


• White House spokesperson said no exemptions at this time when asked about tariff exemptions for farmers and any country that has treated the US unfairly should expect to receive a tariff.

EUROPE

• 
  EU is mulling targeting big US tech firms in response to Trump tariffs, via WaPo citing sources/officials; one official suggested that the bloc could unite on "some partial measures against American services".


• France is reportedly pushing for a tougher response which includes digital services.


• Other nations such as Italy remain opposed believing it will only cause further US escalation.


• "European officials cautioned that there is no agreed-on hit list of digital services."


• "European officials concede that measures against companies like Google (GOOGL) or Meta (META) could escalate the trade war, but they say Trump has shifted the goalposts."


• 
  "European officials are also discussing possible trade concessions"; could be willing to reverse some of the countermeasures announced after the US' aluminium/steel tariffs.


• WaPo reminds us that the bloc has already signalled a willingness to reduce the 10% tariff on US autos and increase the purchase of US-made LNG.

WEEKEND HEADLINES

US' BROADER TARIFFS

• 
  US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post. It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports.
  


• 
  US President Trump said he will hit essentially all countries that they're talking about with tariffs this week and commented that there will be a deal on TikTok before the deadline, according to Reuters.


• 
  US President Trump’s closest allies including Vice President Vance, Chief of Staff Wiles and cabinet officials have privately indicated they are unsure exactly what President Trump will do during the April 2nd announcement of global tariffs, according to Politico.

US AUTO TARIFFS

• 
  US President Trump’s recent 25% auto tariff announcement made no mention of USMCA trade deal side letters shielding Canada and Mexico from potential auto tariffs which showed Canada and Mexico were each granted annual duty-free import quotas of 2.6mln cars and unlimited light trucks if Trump imposed global tariffs. Furthermore, Canada said it fully expects the US to honour the 2018 tariff pledges and it reserves the right to take retaliatory measures, while Mexico is evaluating the legal implications of the agreement on Trump’s ‘Section 232’ auto tariff probe.
  


• 
  US President Trump’s Trade Adviser Navarro said auto tariffs will raise about USD 100bln and the other tariffs are to raise about USD 600bln a year, according to a Fox interview.

UK

• 
  UK PM Starmer spoke with US President Trump on Sunday evening in which they discussed productive negotiations between their respective teams on a UK-US economic prosperity deal and agreed that these will continue at pace this week. It was also reported that UK Home Secretary Cooper refused to rule out retaliating to US tariffs on cars and steel, according to Bloomberg.

FRANCE

• French Ministry of Foreign Trade said France and Europe will defend their businesses, consumers and values, while it added that US interference in the inclusion policies of French companies is unacceptable.


• French Commerce Minister reiterated that France would implement reciprocal tariffs if the US goes ahead with its tariff measures this week. Hoping to avoid a trade war. The Minister intends to have talks with the US Embassy in Paris to voice opposition to the US' order for French firms to comply with a diversity band.

GERMANY

• 
  German Chancellor Scholz said they stand by Canada’s side and that Canada is not a state that belongs to anyone else, while he added that Europe’s goal is cooperation but the EU will respond as one if the US leaves them with no choice such as with tariffs on steel and aluminium.

CHINA

• 
  China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unreasonable and harm global markets. (Comments made in China's Tuesday session).

LATAM

• 
  Brazil’s President Lula said he will negotiate on tariffs before retaliating, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said the country is in a privileged position to withstand the trade war with the commodity exporter’s links to China, the US and the EU to shield it from protectionism, according to FT.

OTHER RECENT HEADLINES: 

28th March

• EU plans concessions for Trump after reciprocal tariffs hit, according to Bloomberg sources


• Chinese State Media says China will "certainly respond with countermeasures if the US insists on harming China's interests regarding the April 2nd tariffs"; if they want to discuss cooperation with China, mutual respect is a prerequisite.


• US President Trump and Canada PM Carney held a very constructive phone call, according to both sides; Carney told Trump he will implement retaliatory tariffs.


• US President Trump says will be announcing pharma tariffs soon; is willing to make deals on tariffs, deals on averting auto tariffs would come later.

27th March

• US President Trump posted on Truth "If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both"


• Canadian PM Carney says its response to these latest tariffs is to fight; they will fight the US tariffs with retaliatory trade actions of its own; clear US is no longer a reliable partner

26th March

• US President Trump may implement copper tariffs within weeks, according to Bloomberg


• The US will reportedly not take all non-tariff barriers (e.g. VAT) in determining reciprocal Tariff rates, according to CNBC


• EU Top Trade Negotiator Sefcovic expects US President Trump to hit the bloc with tariffs of about 20% next week, via FT.


• EU expects Trump to set flat, double-digit tariff on April 2nd, according to Politico; According to two diplomats, suggested the tariff rate applied to the EU could be as high as 20 or 25%


• US President Trump considers more limited tariff plans, automotive tariffs could be narrowed and reciprocal tariffs lowered in latest administration proposals, via WSJ


• US President Trump announces to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, while he said they will be doing tariffs on pharmaceuticals and tariffs on lumber


• China's Vice Premier He Lifeng spoke with USTR's Greer by video call, via Xinhua; Both sides had candid and in depth exchange of views on economy and trade. China expressed solemn concerns on US tariffs and planned reciprocal tariffs.

25th March

• India is reportedly open to cutting tariffs on over half of US imports, worth USD 23bln, via Reuters citing sources; open to cutting tariffs to as low as 0 from a 5-30% range on 55% of US imports


• India proposes to remove the 6% tariff imposed on online advertisement services offered by companies such as Google (GOOG) and Meta (META), known widely as the Google tax, from April 1st which is a day before Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect.


• US President Trump considers a two-step tariff regime on April 2nd, according to FT; Possible phased approach to new US levies reflects debate over trade strategy within administration.


• US President Trump says he has April 2nd tariffs set, and he has been fair to countries that abused US for many decades

24th March: 

• Trump implements secondary tariff on Venezuela; anyone who buys oil/gas from Venezuela will face an additional 25% tariff on all US trade.


• US President Trump says they will be announcing tariffs on autos, aluminium and pharmaceuticals in the very near future.


• Trump says he will announce additional tariffs over the next few days on autos, lumber, and chips


• Trump says he may give a lot of countries breaks on tariffs.

22nd March (weekend)

• President Donald Trump’s coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has occasionally threatened, aides and allies say, a potential relief for markets gripped by anxiety about an all-out tariff war. (Bloomberg)

21st March

• France reportedly to float using EU’s most powerful trade tool on US, according to Bloomberg


• US President Trump says there will be flexibility on tariffs, basically it's reciprocal; they can't be expected to carry Canada.


• UK government reportedly considering plans to reduce or even abolish its digital services tax before April 2nd, via Bloomberg.

20th March

• US President Trump says he believes India is probably going to be lowering tariffs substantially but on April 2nd, we will be charging them the same tariffs they charge us


• EU's Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the Commission is considering delaying first set of counter-tariffs against the US to mid-April

19th March

• US President Trump's aides are planning new tariffs on “trillions” more in imports on April 2nd, according to WaPo


• EU is reportedly to tighten steel import quotas as of April 1st, via Reuters citing sources; to reduce inflows by 15%

18th March

• US President Trump's team reportedly explored a simplified plan for reciprocal tariffs in which they recently debated sorting trading partners into one of three tiers instead of equalising tariff rates with every nation, according to WSJ

17th March: 

• US President Trump says he has no intention of creating exemptions on steel and aluminium tariffs, while he adds reciprocal tariffs will happen on April 2nd


• USTR's Greer imposes policy process on reciprocal tariff plan; President Trump’s top trade negotiator is attempting to inject order into sweeping new tariffs expected next month, after previous announcements roiled markets and fueled business uncertainty


• India reportedly weighs lower tariffs for US medical devices, according to Economic Times

13th March: 

• Trump said the EU put a 50% tariff on whiskey, if this is not removed, the US will place a 200% tariff on wines, champagnes and other alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU represented countries.


• Canada's Ontario Premier says they had a productive meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and will have another meeting next week, adds feel temperatures are decreasing and it was the best meeting they had since tariff talks began

STEEL AND ALUMINIUM TARIFFS IMPLEMENTED MARCH 12TH

• 
  US steel and aluminium tariffs: US President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium took effect with no exemptions.


• 
  50% Canada tariff rollback: US President Trump said he respects Ontario's decision to suspend the 25% energy surcharge, while he said he was looking at backing down on the 50% duties on Canada and may back off doubling steel and aluminium Canada tariffs.


• 
  Broader tariff commentary: Trump separately commented that tariffs are having and will have a tremendously positive impact, while he also suggested tariffs may go higher than 25% but did not specify which tariffs.

RESPONSES TO STEEL AND ALUMINIUM TARIFFS

• 
  EU countermeasures against US steel and aluminium tariffs: EU Commission launched countermeasures on US imports in which it will allow the suspension of existing 2018 and 2020 countermeasures against the US to lapse on April 1st. Furthermore, it stated that EU countermeasures could apply to US goods exports worth up to EUR 26bln to match the economic scope of the US tariffs but added the EU remains ready to work with the US administration to find a negotiated solution. European Commission President von der Leyen said countermeasures will match the scope of US tariffs and will be entirely in place by April 13th. French European Affairs Minister Haddad says, on EU's response to Trump tariffs, "we can go further".


• 
  EU additional proposed tariffs: EU said it is putting forward a package of new countermeasures on US export. The proposed list consists of 99 pages of products ranging from soybeans, almonds, dairy products (milk, cream, butter, yogurt, cheese), beef and poultry (fresh and frozen bovine cuts, chicken, turkey, processed meat), wheat and flour (durum wheat, barley, rye), sugar and sweeteners (raw and refined sugar, maple syrup, white chocolate, chewing gum, confectionery), pasta and bakery products (dried pasta, biscuits, fruit tarts, prepared food mixes), prepared meat products (sausages, preserved turkey and chicken), wine and sparkling wine (Champagne, Prosecco), beer, non-alcoholic beverages (mineral and aerated waters, soft drinks), vegetable oils and fats (soybean, palm, sunflower oils), and margarine and edible fats.


• 
  Canada: Canadian Finance Minister spokesperson said if the US moves ahead with imposition of tariffs on March 12th, they will be ready to respond firmly and proportionately.


• 
  UK: UK Business and Trade Secretary Reynolds said it is disappointing the US has imposed global tariffs on steel and aluminium, while he stated that negotiations are ongoing for a wider economic agreement with the US to eliminate additional tariffs.


• 
  China: China will take all necessary measures to safeguard its rights and interests. Chinese Foreign Ministry added that if the US insists on supressing China, then China must resolutely counter.


• 
  Australia: Australian PM Albanese reiterated they will not impose reciprocal tariffs on the US and will continue to engage with the US on tariffs.


• 
  Brazil: Brazil asked the US to postpone the deadline for the 25% tariff on Brazilian steel and aluminium imports, which is scheduled to take effect this Wednesday, according to O Globo sources.


• 
  India: Indian Steel Secretary said India does not export much steel to the US and does not see much impact from tariffs.

STEEL AND ALUMINIUM TARIFFS IMPLEMENTED MARCH 12TH

TARIFF TALLY (SO FAR)

US TARIFF POLICY

• 
  US reciprocal Tariffs: Trump on February 13th signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed their implementation. The delay allows Trump admin to launch negotiations on a one-by-one basis with nations that could be impacted. The studies of each country could be completed by April 1st.


• 
  US tariffs on steel and aluminium: US President Trump signed proclamations on Monday 10th February 2025 to reimpose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports and declared there are no exceptions or exemptions, effective March 12th.


• 
  US tariffs on agriculture: Trump: “To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!”

CANADA/MEXICO

• 
  US on Canada and Mexico: Tariffs on imports from these countries have been paused for 30 days to allow for negotiations on border security and drug trafficking issues. Pause was initiated on February 3, 2025, is set to expire on March 4, 2025, at 12:01am. The pause expired, with Trump stating “there is no room left for a deal on tariffs on Mexico and Canada”.


• 
  US tariff rollback: A day after the tariffs came into effect, Trump said he would temporarily spare carmakers from a new 25% import tax imposed on Canada and Mexico. Two days after imposing tariffs, Trump announced that duties on a wide range of products would be shelved until April 2nd.


• 
  Canada’s retaliatory tariffs: Following the end of the pause on March 4th, Canada said it would start with 25% tariffs on US imports worth CAD 30bln from Tuesday, while it will impose tariffs on an additional CAD 125bln worth of US imports in 21 days (albeit second wave suspended for now). Furthermore, it said tariffs will remain in place until the US trade action is withdrawn and it is in active discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures if US tariffs do not cease.


• 
  50% US tariff and Canadian Energy Surcharge rollback: Trump on March 11th initially instructed the Commerce Secretary to impose an additional 25%, to 50%, on all steel and aluminium coming into the US from Canada from March 12th although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario's Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity.

CHINA

• 
  US on China: Additional 10% tariff on top of existing levies, no exclusions, came into effect at 12:01 EST on February 4th. Note, Trump did not clarify whether or not imports of Chinese metals would face double tariffs, as he has already imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Extra 10% duty came into effect at 12:01EST on March 4th.


• 
  China's retaliatory tariffs: Chinese tariffs against the US took effect on February 10th and with officials also said to be building a list of US tech firms for potential probes. China imposed 15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil, agricultural machines, and some autos; Tariffs imposed in direct response to Trump's 10% tariffs, according to the Chinese Finance Ministry. China also announced export controls (no specific country mentioned) on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium. Following the US’ extra 10%, on March 4th, China announced 15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products; 15 US entities to the export control list; 10 US firms to the unreliable entity list; banned the import of Illumina (ILMN) gene sequence machines to China.

02 Apr 2025 - 06:35- MetalsImportant- Source: Newsquawk