[ROLLING ANALYSIS] Tariff Developments

March 3rd/4th

US Action

US President Trump proceeded with tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico (i.e. ended the pause) and the extra 10% on China also seemingly came into effect as the tariff order was not altered.
On agricultural products, Trump posted “Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd…”
On the 3rd, Trump said “there is no room for a deal on tariffs with Mexico and Canada” and he will be penalising nations weakening currencies with tariffs, mentioned China in this context; does not believe China will retaliate too much.

Retaliation

Canada: will start with 25% tariffs on US imports worth CAD 30bln from Tuesday, while it will impose tariffs on an additional CAD 125bln worth of US imports in 21 days. Also, in active discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures if US tariffs do not cease.
China: additional tariffs of up to 15% on some US goods from March 10th, on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton. 10% tariffs on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. Added 15 US entities to the export control list and 10 firms to the unreliable entity list; banned the import of Illumina (ILMN) gene sequencing machines as of March 4th.

February 28th

China's Foreign Minister, on the remarks from US President Trump around an additional 10% tariff, says the US is once again using fentanyl as a pretext for threatening China. China opposes the tariff move. Will take all necessary measures to safeguard their legitimate interests. Rubio's speech was filled with "cold war mentality", adds the US coercion will backfire. China is willing to cooperate.

February 27th

China

US President Trump said there will be an additional 10% tariff on China and clarified that there will be a 10+10 tariff on China for 20%, while he stated they are not seeing progress on drugs coming into the country and that Canada should be apprehending much more fentanyl.

Trump also criticised EU VAT taxes and said he doesn’t like the way the EU is treating US companies, as well as noted they are going to have reciprocal tariffs and responded will have to take a look when asked if there will be sanctions on the UK.

US President Trump said UK PM Starmer is a tough negotiator and that the US and UK have a special relationship, while he added that meetings with UK PM Starmer were tremendously productive and they are going to have a deal done on trade with the UK rather quickly.

Canada/Mexico

Canadian PM Trudeau said they will have an immediate and extremely strong response if the US imposes tariffs next Tuesday.
Mexico's Deputy Economy Minister said Mexico is analysing other measures, after imposing tariffs on low-cost imports.

February 26th

Canada/Mexico

US President Trump said they are not stopping the tariffs and tariffs will go on, not all but a lot of them, while he also stated that Canada and Mexico tariffs go into effect on "April 2nd" and that they don't need Canada's lumber.
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick clarified if President Trump is satisfied by the March 4th deadline (in relation to tariffs in response to fentanyl and border security), President Trump could pause fentanyl and border-related tariffs, but global tariffs still come into effect on April 2nd.
White House still plans to implement 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico next week, at least for now — despite comments from US President Trump that raised hopes of another delay, according to Axios.
Mexico’s Deputy Foreign Trade Minister said Mexico is working with US officials to reach an agreement on tariffs before the deadline and US officials are recognising Mexico’s efforts in addressing illegal drugs and migration.

Trump said he will be announcing tariffs on the EU very soon and that the EU can try to retaliate on tariffs, as well as noted that EU tariffs are to be 25% on autos and other things.
EU will react 'firmly and immediately' to US tariff, according to AFP citing a European Commission source.