OPEC MOMR (Sep): 2022 world oil demand growth unchanged amid gas-to-oil switching

• Saudi Arabia boosted output to 11.051mln BPD in August, a rise of 236k BPD

DEMAND

• 2022 world oil demand growth remained unchanged from the last report to 3.1mln BPD; This includes the recently observed trend for additional oil demand growth due to fuel switching in power generation.


• For 2023, the forecast for world oil demand growth also remained unchanged at 2.7mln BPD, with total oil demand averaging 102.7mln BPD.


• Total oil demand is still expected to average around 100mln BPD in 2022.


• Oil demand in 2023 is expected to be supported by a still-solid economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as potential improvements in COVID-19 restrictions and reduced geopolitical uncertainties.

SUPPLY

• Preliminary data indicates that global oil supply in August increased by 1.3mln BPD M/M to average 101.3mln BPD, up by 5.6mln BPD Y/Y.


• According to secondary sources, total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 29.65mln BPD in August 2022, higher by 618k BPD M/M. Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya and Saudi Arabia, while production in Nigeria declined.


• The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production increased by 0.2 pp to 29.3% in August compared with the previous month.

COMMENTARY

• World economic growth is unchanged at 3.1% for 2022 and 2023.


• The outlook for European oil demand in 2023 is still somewhat uncertain.

GAS-TO-OIL SWITCHING

• Despite the likely economic challenges, there is an expectation for higher oil demand as the EU is set to lead global gas-to-oil switching due to soaring prices of natural gas and supply uncertainties during the winter.


• The gas-to-oil switching is expected to boost oil consumption in the region by about 200k BPD.

Analysis details (13:10)

• As a reminder, in August, the IEA OMR raised its 2022 estimate for oil demand growth by 380k BPD to 2.21mln BPD due to more gas-to-oil switching, and suggested demand growth is expected to slow to 40k BPD in Q4 2022.

13 Sep 2022 - 13:10- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: OPEC