OPEC MOMR (Sep): 2022 world oil demand growth unchanged amid gas-to-oil switching
- Saudi Arabia boosted output to 11.051mln BPD in August, a rise of 236k BPD
DEMAND
- 2022 world oil demand growth remained unchanged from the last report to 3.1mln BPD; This includes the recently observed trend for additional oil demand growth due to fuel switching in power generation.
- For 2023, the forecast for world oil demand growth also remained unchanged at 2.7mln BPD, with total oil demand averaging 102.7mln BPD.
- Total oil demand is still expected to average around 100mln BPD in 2022.
- Oil demand in 2023 is expected to be supported by a still-solid economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as potential improvements in COVID-19 restrictions and reduced geopolitical uncertainties.
SUPPLY
- Preliminary data indicates that global oil supply in August increased by 1.3mln BPD M/M to average 101.3mln BPD, up by 5.6mln BPD Y/Y.
- According to secondary sources, total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 29.65mln BPD in August 2022, higher by 618k BPD M/M. Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya and Saudi Arabia, while production in Nigeria declined.
- The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production increased by 0.2 pp to 29.3% in August compared with the previous month.
COMMENTARY
- World economic growth is unchanged at 3.1% for 2022 and 2023.
- The outlook for European oil demand in 2023 is still somewhat uncertain.
GAS-TO-OIL SWITCHING
- Despite the likely economic challenges, there is an expectation for higher oil demand as the EU is set to lead global gas-to-oil switching due to soaring prices of natural gas and supply uncertainties during the winter.
- The gas-to-oil switching is expected to boost oil consumption in the region by about 200k BPD.
Analysis details (13:10)
- As a reminder, in August, the IEA OMR raised its 2022 estimate for oil demand growth by 380k BPD to 2.21mln BPD due to more gas-to-oil switching, and suggested demand growth is expected to slow to 40k BPD in Q4 2022.
13 Sep 2022 - 13:10- EnergyData- Source: OPEC
Subscribe Now to Newsquawk
Click here for a 1 week free trial
Newsquawk provides audio news and commentary for over 15,000professional traders and brokers worldwide. Services include:
- Real-time audio coverage from 0630 to 2200 London time plus Asia-Pac 2200 to 1000 London time
- Teams of analysts covering equities, fixed income, FX, energy, and metals markets
- Real-time scrolling news service with instant analysis
- Daily and weekly pre-market research and calendars
- Video updates covering near-term key risk events & primary trading themes
- One-to-one chat with our expert analysts