Norges Bank Regional Network Survey (Q2): Slightly better outlook, but wide variations

• Regional Network contacts expect some increase in overall activity in 2023 Q2, with a further pick-up in Q3.


• In most sectors, developments are more favourable than contacts expected in the previous survey, but there is still considerable cross-sector variation.


• Contacts expect annual wage growth of 5.4% in 2023, which is substantially higher than the February estimate.

via Norges Bank

Reaction details (09:12)

• Modest upside was seen in the NOK, with EUR/NOK slipping from 11.5500 to 11.5200 as the release's relatively robust growth commentary offsets some of the concern around surprisingly soft Norwegian growth data.

Analysis details (09:01)

• Carried out 2 May – 2 June 2023


• The final key input ahead of next week's policy announcement, where the Norges Bank is forecast to hike by 25bp to 3.50% from 3.25%, a move which would chime with the guidance from May and is justified as a balancing act between a CPI resurgence and surprisingly soft growth data.


• Today's Regional Network Report seemingly gives the Bank enough cover on the growth front to continue tightening and perhaps to lift the repo path forecast to or even above a 4.00% peak (currently 3.60%).

15 Jun 2023 - 09:00- ForexData- Source: Norges Bank