Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks bid and bonds rise as oil slides

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  SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold flat.


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  REAR VIEW: Trump says Iran wants to make a deal, they are talking to our people & war will end soon; Trump reportedly seeks a Hormuz coalition and is weighing seizing Iran's oil depot on Kharg Island; Loadings at the UAE's Fujairah port have reportedly resumed after being hit; Iraq said it issued tenders to export oil via ports in Syria and Jordan; Bessent says US-China trade meetings in Paris "very good"; BoC headline Y/Y prints below 2%; UK reportedly to raise steel tariffs to 50% in new strategy; US & Iran reportedly in contact in recent days; NVDA touts USD 1trln of demand through 2027.


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  COMING UP: Data: Italian HICP Final (Feb), German/EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Mar), US ADP Employment Weekly, Japanese Trade Balance (Feb). Event: RBA Policy Announcement. Speakers: RBA's Bullock; ECB's Nagel. Supply: Japan, UK, US.


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  WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include FOMC, BoJ, BoE, ECB, RBA, and SNB. Click here for the full report.
  


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  WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Click here for the full report.
  

MARKET WRAP

Stocks were firmer on Monday while oil prices moved lower. The US did strike Kharg Island over the weekend, but avoided any oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, US President Trump reiterated he thinks the war could be over soon, while suggesting Iran has been speaking to the US. It was later revealed that Iran's Foreign Minister had been texting US Special Envoy Witkoff about ending the war, seeing oil settle at lows. The lower oil prices helped support T-notes across the curve, but sell-side commentary was also supportive, with Goldman noting that risks around yields are increasingly tilted to the downside. In FX, it was a risk-friendly picture with the Dollar lagging and cyclical outperforming while attention turns to a plethora of central bank activity this week, including Fed, BoJ, RBA, BoE, ECB and SNB. Elsewhere, US/China trade talks over the weekend went well, but there is uncertainty regarding Trump's visit to China amid the Iran war, which may see the meeting delayed. Nvidia (NVDA) CEO gave his keynote speech at the GTC (still ongoing), with NVDA shares closing green but off earlier highs. One of the highlights was Huang's forecast of USD 1tln in demand through 2027 (vs the USD 500bln in demand from 2025 through to 2026), seeing the stock hit highs, but it swiftly pared.

US

NY FED: Business activity was little changed in New York State in March. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -0.2. New orders increased modestly, while shipments declined. Unfilled orders rose, delivery times lengthened, and supply availability was slightly worse. Inventories increased. Employment rose modestly and the average workweek edged up. The pace of input price increases declined significantly, but remained elevated, while the pace of selling price increases was little changed. Firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, and capital spending plans strengthened. Despite the fall in the headline, analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics highlight that "the average of the components that correspond to those that make up the headline index for the ISM manufacturing survey picked up slightly, driven in part by improvements in new orders and employment."

INDUSTRIAL/MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION: IP rose 0.2% in February, above the expected 0.1% (prev. 0.7%). Manufacturing output rose 0.2% (prev. 0.8%), mining output +0.8% (prev. 0.9%), and utilities output -0.6% (prev. 0.1%). Capacity utilisation was flat at 76.3%. Oxford Economics notes that there are a couple of factors that will cushion the blow to industrial production from the fallout of the US/Israel-Iran war. 1) "Incoming source data for Q1 suggest no sudden stop in the AI investment cycle", 2) "One Big Beautiful Bill Act has increased the after-tax return on capital investments".

FIXED INCOME

T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 15+ TICKS HIGHER AT 111-28+

T-notes rise across the curve as oil prices slide. At settlement, 2-year -4.9bps at 3.680%, 3-year -5.8bps at 3.689%, 5-year -6.6bps at 3.802%, 7-year -6.8bps at 3.996%, 10-year -6.3bps at 4.220%, 20-year -6.0bps at 4.834%, 30-year -5.1bps at 4.857%.

THE DAY: T-notes were firmer across the curve on Monday as oil prices eased with seemingly no fresh escalations in the war, while Trump looks to secure the Strait of Hormuz through a coalition, albeit details remain light. Regarding the movement higher in yields over recent weeks, Goldman Sachs thinks risks around yields are increasingly tilted to the downside. The desk revised their front-end yield forecasts to reflect a later profile of Fed cuts, but sees yields ending the year slightly lower than previously, with their end-2026 forecasts of 3.2% 2y and 4.1% 10y UST yields below the forwards. Morgan Stanley had also been talking about the potential demand destruction induced reversal towards lower rates. The sell-side commentary and move lower in crude prices seemingly supported T-Note trade on Monday amid a lack of key data, while attention turns to the Fed on Wednesday. On data, US Industrial Production slightly beat expectations alongside the Manufacturing output; meanwhile, the NY Fed manufacturing survey disappointed expectations. Although geopolitics remains in focus, there are plenty of central bank decisions due this week, including the Fed, BoJ, BoE, ECB, and SNB.

SUPPLY

Notes

• US to sell USD 13bln of 20-year bonds on March 17th and USD 19bln of 10-year TIPS on March 19th; all to settle March 31st

Bills

• US sold 6-month bills at a high rate of 3.570%, B/C 2.64x; sold 3-month bills at right rate of 3.610%, B/C 2.94x


• US to sell USD 86bln of 6-week bills and USD 50bln of 52-week bills on March 17th; all to settle March 19th.

STIRS/OPERATIONS

• Fed Rate Cut Pricing: March 0bps (prev. 0bps), April 0bps (prev. 0bps), June 3.9bps (prev. 4.4bps), December 24.1bps (prev. 20.4bps).


• NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.58bln (prev. 0.43bln) across 9 counterparties (prev. 4) on March 16th


• SOFR at 3.65% (prev. 3.65%), volumes at USD 3.164tln (prev. USD 3.112tln) on March 13th


• EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 92bln (prev. USD 99bln) on March 13th

CRUDE

WTI (J6) SETTLED USD 5.21 LOWER AT 93.50/BBL; BRENT (K6) SETTLED USD 2.93 LOWER AT 100.21/BBL

The crude complex was lower, as the Middle East war rages on, albeit with no major escalation over the weekend while crude was hit into settlement on reports that Witkoff and FM Araghchi have been texting. Trump said he ordered a strike that wiped out every military target on Kharg Island, where Iran exports nearly all of its oil, but left the oil infrastructure intact. On the Strait of Hormuz, which remains essentially closed, Trump’s admin plans as soon as this week to announce a coalition to escort ships, although they are still discussing if such operations would begin before or after hostilities have ended. In later remarks, on potential Strait of Hormuz coalition, the President remarked that Rubio will announce the countries in the coalition later, and some are fairly local, but caveated that it takes a while to get to the Hormuz. Trump also added, when asked about a deal with Iran, that Iran wants to make a deal, and they are talking to our people. Prior to these remarks, benchmarks saw downside as Trump once again reiterated that the Iranian war will end soon. Elsewhere, IEA's Birol was on the wires, but added little new, as he noted despite the huge release, still have a large stockpile, and can do more later, if required. Ahead of settlement, pressure was seen in crude to see the complex settle at lows after Israel's Channel 12 reported that US Special Envoy Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi were in contact over text messages. WTI traded between USD 92.97-102.44/bbl and Brent USD 99.54-106.50/bbl, as focus, as expected, remains around the Middle East conflict.

EQUITIES

CLOSES: SPX +1.05% at 6,702, NDX +1.13% at 24,655, DJI +0.83% at 49,946, RUT +0.96% at 2,504.

SECTORS: Technology +1.39%, Consumer Discretionary +1.34%, Communication Services +1.02%, Financials +0.87%, Industrials +0.85%, Health +0.75%, Real Estate +0.72%, Utilities +0.57%, Materials +0.57%, Energy +0.38%, Consumer Staples +0.07%.

EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.44% at 5,742, Dax 40 +0.57% at 23,570, FTSE 100 +0.60% at 10,323, CAC 40 +0.31% at 7,936, FTSE MIB +0.05% at 44,338, IBEX 35 +0.19% at 17,093, PSI -0.15% at 9,130, SMI +0.49% at 12,882, AEX +0.61% at 1,008

STOCK SPECIFICS:

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  National Storage Affiliates (NSA) to be acquired by Public Storage (PSA) for USD 41.68/shr in a USD 10.5bln deal.


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  Nebius (NBIS) signed $12bln AI capacity deal w/ META; Meta to spend up to $27bln over 5yrs on AI deal.


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  Sable Offshore (SOC) ordered to restore ops. at Santa Ynez Unit & Santa Ynez Pipeline System.


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  Intuit (INTU) halts mgmt. stock sales & accelerated buyback.


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  Meta (META): Techzine reported that META denies rumours of sweeping layoffs to fund AI, which could affect up to 20% of its workforce.


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  Alibaba (BABA) plans to launch an agentic AI service for Cos. based on its Qwen model.


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  Venture Global (VG): DoE authorised an immediate 13% increase in exports from the Plaquemines LNG terminal in Louisiana.


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  Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Board unanimously urged shareholders to reject minority tender offer from Cox Capital Partners & Saba Capital Management for up to 8mln shares, worth c. $ 30mln.


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  Ford (F) authorised repurchases of up to 31.7mln shares under an anti-dilutive buyback programme.


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  Dollar Tree (DLTR): EPS, rev. beat & sees annual sales largely below expected.

FX

The Dollar was lower to start the week, retracing some of the hefty gains seen last week amid the Middle East conflict, and was largely at the whim of oil prices. Over the weekend and today, there have been plenty of headlines/updates surrounding the topic, but nothing too escalatory. Trump did announce that the US struck Kharg Island, but avoided any oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, when Trump was asked about a deal with Iran, he said Iran wants to make a deal, and they are talking to our people. Further reports from Channel 12 suggested that Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi and US Envoy Witkoff are reportedly in contact over text messages in recent days - apparently about ending the war. Elsewhere, traders await the upcoming Fed confab on Wednesday, where they are widely expected to leave rates unchanged, albeit with dissents.

G10 FX was firmer across the board, with Antipodeans the clear outperformers and supported by risk sentiment, but also ahead of the expected RBA hike overnight. There was little currency-specific newsflow on Monday, as price action was largely dominated by oil. However, modest weakness was seen in the CAD after cooler-than-expected inflation data for February, which comes prior to the BoC meeting on Wednesday. This week, there is a deluge of central bank decisions, including RBA, BoC, Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB and SNB, amongst others.

In EMFX, Chinese data impressed overnight as retail sales and IP both surpassed expectations. Regarding US/China relations, Bessent said US-China trade meetings in Paris were "very good", and that we will see whether the Trump China visit goes as planned, but it is false to say that the trip may be delayed due to the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, China’s Trade Negotiator Li, in talks with the US, spoke about a possible extension of tariff suspensions and other matters.

16 Mar 2026 - 20:12- EquitiesRumour- Source: Newsquawk