[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures slip as the US and Iran announce a 60-day framework

Over the weekend, the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, marking a significant de-escalation of the conflict. Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing part of Iran's frozen assets. Regarding uranium, Iran would be allowed to dilute enriched uranium on site, while the 60-day window allows for further negotiations on its enriched uranium programme. The deal also covers Lebanon, with Pakistan's PM posting on X that the pact called for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, comments by Israeli Defence Minister Katz suggest Israel will not back out of Lebanon, stating that Israel opposes the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon. Additional comments by Israeli Finance Minister stating the US-Iran agreement is harmful to Israel and that they will have to continue their campaign in creative ways.
Looking ahead, the US-Iran MoU is scheduled to be officially signed on Friday in Geneva. Before the signing, G7 ministers are meeting in France, with US President Trump also expected to attend. AFP reports that the US and Iran are to hold preparatory talks in Doha before the deal signing, although a specific time and date is unknown.
Crude futures gapped lower at the open and have held onto earlier losses. WTI Jul'26 briefly dipped below USD 80/bbl (USD 79.70-82.42/bbl) while Brent Aug'26 trades at the lower end of its USD 82.67-85.93/bbl range.
Spot gold has benefited from the weekend newsflow, as markets pare back rate hike bets. Markets now assign a c. 60% probability of a hike by December. Spot gold regained the USD 4300/oz handle, currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4281-4335/oz range.
3M LME Copper gains amid the constructive risk tone, gapping higher and oscillating in a USD 13.76k-13.87k/t range.