Goldman Sachs forecasts S&P 500 EPS growth of +12% Y/Y in 2026 to USD 305 and +10% in 2027 to USD 336, incorporating expectations of solid US GDP growth, a weaker US dollar and continued earnings strength among the largest technology stocks

The 2026 forecast assumes 7% revenue growth and 70bps of profit margin expansion.
The seven largest stocks in the index (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO and META) represent 36% of market capitalisation and 26% of earnings, and are expected to contribute 46% of index EPS growth in 2026, down from 50% in 2025, as earnings growth for the remaining S&P 493 accelerates from +7% in 2025 to +9% in 2026. Their higher sales growth and margins mechanically support aggregate margins, with a hypothetical 50% rise in NVDA sales in 2026 lifting the S&P 500 profit margin by 30bps if margins are flat, GS notes.
AI-driven productivity gains are expected to raise EPS by 0.4% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, reflecting gradual adoption, particularly among larger firms.
Profit margins are identified as the main difference versus consensus, with Goldman Sachs viewing bottom-up margin expansion assumptions of 89bps in 2026 as optimistic despite supportive factors such as easing tariff pressures, productivity growth and labour market slack.