EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Oil little changed ahead of US-Ukraine/EU/NATO today

Crude Oil: WTI Sep U/C, Brent Oct -0.1%

• Little changed with demand constrained following the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, which President Trump said had made great progress, while he is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House today.


• On this front, "European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today: 1) pin down more details on possible US security guarantees; 2) work on preparations for the possible trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3) push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps", via Eurasia.


• European leaders will arrive at the White House at 12:00 EDT / 17:00 BST and will be formally greeted by President Trump at 14:15 EDT / 19:15 BST. A multilateral meeting will then be held at 15:00 EDT / 20:00 BST.


• Elsewhere, in the Middle East, Israeli PM Netanyahu has "recently intensified his meetings with close associates in preparation for the possibility of early elections", via Al Jazeera, citing sources. Note, it was reported last month that Netanyahu could consider an early election, despite his low popularity, as a calculated move aimed at consolidating power before his political position weakens further.


• Stateside, NHC said Category 4 Hurricane Erin is located just east of the Southeast Bahamas; Life-threatening surf and rip currents are likely across the US Eastern Seaboard this week.


• UBS reiterated its end-2025 and March 2026 Brent crude oil view to USD 62/bbl, on a higher supply front from South America and resilient output from sanctioned countries


• WTI currently resides in a USD 61.65-62.45/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.47-66.24/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.4%, Silver +0.3%, Palladium +0.7%

• Two-way trade and gained after rebounding from an initial dip, with few catalysts outside of geopolitics.


• Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex eking mild gains, with spot gold trading on either side of its 50 DMA (3,349.60/oz) in a USD 3,323-68-3,358.49/oz range.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.2%

• Copper eked out marginal gains overnight amid the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific region.


• However, dollar strength and a worsening of sentiment in the European morning prompted the base metals complex to trade mostly in negative territory. 


• 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,727.55-9,770.30/t range.

18 Aug 2025 - 09:55- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk