EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude and gold rise as NATO member Poland downs drones above its territory

Crude Oil: WTI Oct +1.1% Brent Nov +1.0%

• Traded higher following recent geopolitical developments, including Israel striking Hamas officials in Qatar, while US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
• The focus of the day has been on Poland announcing it conducted a military operation to neutralise targets after its airspace was repeatedly violated by Russian drones attacking Ukraine.
• On this, Polish PM Tusk said Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty; there is no reason to claim that Poland is in a state of war. Article 4 talks are meant for consultations when “a member country feels threatened.” These consultations often precede any Article 5 decision, although without a clear intent to strike Polish territory, NATO members may be reluctant to consider it an "armed attack" under Article 5.
• Belarus said that it had shot down some drones which went astray due to electronic jamming during an exchange of strikes between Ukraine and Russia.
• WTI currently resides in a 62.72-63.44/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.66-67.20/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.6%, Silver +0.6%, Palladium U/C

• Recovered overnight after retreating yesterday alongside a firmer buck despite dovish BLS revisions.
• Gains today have been facilitated by the aforementioned geopolitics, where Poland launched strikes on Russian drones violating its airspace, with PM Tusk calling for NATO Article 4 consultations (not Article 5), while Belarus claimed some drones were downed after straying due to jamming.
• Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,620.14-3,648.60/oz range after printing fresh record highs yesterday at USD 3,674.69/oz.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper U/C

• Mixed/flat trade with the dollar also uneventful whilst broader risk remains cautious amid geopolitics and ahead of US PPI.
• 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,914.50-9,962.35/t range at the time of writing.