European Commission Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast: "shows continued growth despite challenging environment"

• "Growth is supported by a resilient labour market, decreasing inflation and favourable financing conditions. In addition, policy support from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funding is cushioning the effect of tighter fiscal policy in several Member States".
• "Globally, the US tariffs are at their highest levels in nearly a century. The forecast assumes that all country- and sector-specific tariffs implemented or credibly announced by the US administration at the cut-off date will remain in place throughout the forecast horizon".

EU

GDP

• 2025 1.4% (prev. 1.1%)
• 2026 1.4% (prev. 1.5%)
• 2027 1.5% (prev. —)

Inflation

• 2025 2.5% (prev. 2.3%
• 2026 2.1% (prev. 1.9%
• 2027 2.2% (prev. —)

Deficit

• 2025 -3.3% (prev. -3.3%)
• 2026 -3.4% (prev. -3.4%)
• 2027 -3.4% (prev. —)

Unemployment

• 2025 5.9% (prev. 5.9%)
• 2026 5.9% (prev. 5.7%)
• 2027 5.8% (prev. —)

Euro area

GDP

• 2025 1.3% (prev. 0.9%)
• 2026 1.2% (prev. 1.4%)
• 2027 1.4% (prev. —)

Inflation

• 2025 2.1% (prev. 2.1%)
• 2026 1.9% (prev. 1.7%)
• 2027 2.0% (prev. —)

Deficit

• 2025 -3.2% (prev. -3.2%)
• 2026 -3.3% (prev. -3.3%)
• 2027 -3.4% (prev. —)

Unemployment

• 2025 6.3% (prev. 6.3%)
• 2026 6.2% (prev. 6.1%)
• 2027 6.1% (prev. —)