Daily US Equity Opening News - US Treasury to review private credit market risks; NXST-Tegna deal paused; MS adds META to Top Picks

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.7%, NQ +0.7%, YM +0.7%, RUT +0.9%
DAY AHEAD: Stateside, Dallas Fed’s manufacturing gauge is expected to rise to 0.7 in March (from 0.2). On the speakers’ slate, Fed’s Williams and Fed Chair Powell will speak (see below). UK Chancellor Reeves will, in an online call today, urge G7 partners to increase domestic energy supply and say the recent rise in oil and gas prices benefits Russia, while calling for more investment in renewable energy and nuclear power to reduce reliance on gas.
BROKER MOVES: ADI upgraded at Arete; CART upgraded at Jefferies. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: NXST, SYY, META, AA/CENX, NFLX, LLY, AMD. For the full list, click here.
15:30BST/10:30EDT: Fed Chair Powell (voter; no text expected; Q&A expected) will participate in a moderated discussion at Harvard University. At his post-meeting press conference on 18th March, Powell leaned hawkish. His main concern was inflation persistence rather than growth weakness. He repeatedly stressed the need to see further progress in goods disinflation, flagged frustration over sticky non-housing services and made clear that, if inflation progress does not resume, cuts will not follow. On rates, Powell kept optionality but did not open the door to near-term easing. He said policy was in a good place, noting it was around the high end of neutral, or only modestly restrictive. He said the labour market was being watched closely, particularly weak private payroll growth, but stopped short of suggesting employment risks now dominate the Fed's policy balance. On his role as Fed Chair, Powell said that if a successor had not been confirmed before his term as Chair ends in May, he would remain in place as Fed Chair "Pro Tem"; on his role as Governor beyond that, he said he has no intention of leaving the Board until the DoJ investigation is over, and he he had not yet decided whether he would stay on.
21:00BST/16:00EDT: Fed's Williams (voter, neutral; both text and Q&A are expected) will give remarks on the economic outlook. In an early March speech, Williams said current rates at between 3.5-3.75% are appropriate for now, but added that further cuts were possible if inflation eases as he expects. He said policy is well positioned, sees 2.5% growth this year, and expects PCE inflation to ease to 2.5% in 2026, before returning to target in 2027. His remarks did not touch on the Iran war.
WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US NFP, ISMs and Retail Sales; EZ CPI; RBA Minutes; BoJ Tankan. Notable corporate earnings due this week include: NKE, MKC, FDS, PVH, CAG.
Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview.
Click here for Newsquawk’s weekly US earnings estimates.

IRAN

US - US President Trump said he wanted to “take the oil” in Iran, possibly by seizing Kharg Island, FT reports; the interview came as thousands of US troops gathered in the Persian Gulf region, including an amphibious assault team that arrived on Saturday, while portions of the 82nd Airborne were also on the way. Trump said direct and indirect talks with Iran were progressing, with Iran agreeing to most points of a 15-point plan, though no details were given; he added that many targets had been destroyed. WSJ reported that Trump is weighing an operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of Iran’s uranium; CBS reported that allies were told diplomacy would take time.
Houthis - Yemen’s Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict on Saturday and said they would continue operations until attacks on Iran and its proxy groups stop. Missile strikes hit across the Middle East over the weekend as Iran and its proxies attacked US allies, while neither Washington nor Tehran publicly accepted Pakistan’s offer to host talks. The arrival of a US amphibious assault group and the entry of Iran-backed Houthi forces increased concerns about escalation as Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey sought a diplomatic off-ramp.
Saudi Pipeline - Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, is operating at its full capacity of 7mln BPD, Bloomberg reports. Tankers have been redirected to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to collect the oil as part of the Kingdom’s contingency plan to keep exports flowing.
China Energy - China exported cargoes of diesel and other fuels over the weekend to Southeast Asian countries, signalling support despite export curbs imposed earlier this month, Bloomberg reports.

TECH

Apple (AAPL) - Samsung Display and LG Display are preparing for Apple’s planned OLED iMac, with Apple requesting samples made on mass-production equipment, according to ZDNET. Samsung is expected to respond faster with 220PPI QD-OLED samples later this year. LG plans to use a 5-stack W-OLED and is also developing eLEAP for IT OLED applications, including iMac and MacBook.
Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung Electronics has started mass production of 236-layer NAND flash at its Xi’an plant in China, marking a move to higher-layer memory, Digitimes reports. The publication also reports that Samsung plans to start mass production of silicon photonics in 2028, and is offering clients an integrated platform; the move could affect data centre networking, AI hardware integration and foundry competition, the report adds.
Chipmakers, Helium - Semiconductor manufacturers are racing to secure helium as Middle East tensions disrupt supply chains, with production risk outweighing higher costs, Digitimes reports, noting that helium prices are up 50%.
Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) - Kioxia said generative AI’s shift from large-model training to large-scale inference supports continued price increases for NAND and SSD products; it outlined a supply strategy, and said new industry capacity due in 2027 would not disrupt NAND market balance.
Chinese Semiconductors - China’s share of global semiconductor capacity is projected to reach 32% by 2030, according to SEMI estimates cited by the digitimes.
CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) - Upgraded at Wolfe Research to 'Outperform' from 'Peer Perform' with a USD 450 PT. The firm said Anthropic's upcoming model release "has the potential to ignite a machine speed cyberwar the likes of which we have never seen." The release could drive more vendor consolidation and tailwinds for CrowdStrike, leading to the company's annual recurring revenue accelerating in fiscal 2027.

FINANCIALS

Private Credit - The US Treasury plans in coming weeks to begin a series of meetings with domestic and international insurance regulators on developments in private credit markets, Reuters reports. Officials want feedback on leverage, ratings, offshore reinsurance and liquidity in the USD 2tln sector as its links with regulated financial institutions grow.
Private Credit - A WSJ analysis found four large private-credit funds marketed to individual investors by Apollo (APO), Ares (ARES), Blackstone (BX) and Blue Owl (OWL) have greater software exposure than their filings suggest. Concerns about software exposure, amid fears over AI threats, helped drive record private-credit fund withdrawals in Q1. Elsewhere, some private capital funds are avoiding recent markdowns via energy-transition investments, Bloomberg reports; fund managers at Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), Eurazeo and Tikehau Capital said these bets have helped them withstand turmoil affecting other areas of private credit and equity markets by focusing on assets tied to energy security and less exposed to obsolescence from AI.
JPMorgan (JPM) - Banks led by JPMorgan are facing investor pushback on terms of a USD 7.2bln debt deal backing Clayton, Dubilier & Rice’s takeover of Sealed Air, Bloomberg reports. Potential buyers of about USD 2.45bln of bonds and USD 4.7bln of loans objected to provisions, including an option for CD&R to spin off Sealed Air’s food or protective reporting units.
Apollo Global (APO) - Considering opening a second US HQ alongside NYC, and is evaluating Austin, South Florida and Nashville, the FT reports.
Bank of America (BAC) - Bank of America agreed to pay USD 72.5mln to settle a civil lawsuit by women who accused the bank of facilitating Jeffrey Epstein’s sexual abuse, subject to court approval, Reuters reports. Plaintiffs’ lawyers previously settled with JPMorgan (JPM) for USD 290mln, and Deutsche Bank (DB) for USD 75mln, and are appealing dismissal of a similar case against Bank of New York Mellon (BK).
Monte Paschi (BMDPY) - Monte Paschi asked shareholders to back its board slate at the 15th April AGM; it said the proposed list would ensure strong alignment between governance and executive leadership, and provide stability during the integration of Mediobanca (MDIBY) after last year’s USD 17bln hostile takeover.
Raiffeisen Bank (RAIFY), BBVA (BBVA) - Raiffeisen is acquiring BBVA’s Romanian Garanti unit for EUR 591mln as it reshapes its central and eastern European operations beyond difficulties at its Russian unit. The deal also includes BBVA leasing unit Motoractive IFN, and will make Raiffeisen the third-largest bank in Romania.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CMWAY) - Colonial First State, which manages AUD 179bln, is mulling increasing private credit, floating-rate debt and inflation-protected bonds, Bloomberg reports.

HEALTHCARE

Eli Lilly (LLY) - Insilico Medicine entered a drug discovery collaboration with Eli Lilly covering multiple therapeutic areas, using Insilico’s AI platforms and Lilly’s development capabilities. Insilico is eligible for USD 115mln upfront, potential development, regulatory and commercial milestones totalling about USD 2.75bln, plus tiered royalties on future sales.
Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly said the Phase 3b Together-PsA trial showed Taltz plus Zepbound was statistically superior to Taltz alone at 36 weeks in adults with active psoriatic arthritis and obesity or overweight with at least one additional weight-related comorbidity. The combination met the primary and all key secondary endpoints.
J&J (JNJ) - Johnson & Johnson said 52-week Phase 3 data from Iconic-Advance 1, 2 and Iconic-Lead showed Icotyde maintained high rates of complete skin clearance in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, with no new safety signals.
Takeda (TAK) - Takeda said new Phase 3 data for oral zasocitinib, TAK-279, in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis showed rapid, durable skin clearance and a safety profile consistent with Phase 2b studies.
Merck (MRK) - Merck said the Phase 2 Cadence trial showed Winrevair produced a statistically significant reduction from baseline in pulmonary vascular resistance versus placebo at week 24 in adults with combined post- and precapillary pulmonary hypertension and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.
Novartis (NVS) - Novartis said final two-year Phase III APPLAUSE-IgAN results showed Fabhalta delivered a statistically significant, clinically meaningful improvement in estimated glomerular filtration rate slope versus placebo in IgA nephropathy.
GSK (GSK) - GSK said Exdensur was approved in China for severe asthma with an eosinophilic phenotype, as the first and only ultra-long-acting biologic for that use in the country. GSK also said bepirovirsen was accepted for regulatory review in China as a potential first-in-class functional cure for chronic hepatitis B.
Bristol Myers (BMY) - Bristol Myers Squibb said a Phase 4 trial showed adult outpatients with schizophrenia remained stable for 8 weeks after switching from an oral atypical antipsychotic to Cobenfy monotherapy, with no new safety signals. It also announced that the Phase 3 Scout-HCM trial met its primary endpoint, with Camzyos showing a clinically meaningful and statistically significant reduction versus placebo in Valsalva left ventricular outflow tract gradient at Week 28 in adolescents with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; secondary endpoints also improved.
Biogen (BIIB) - Biogen said Part A of the AMETHYST Phase 2/3 study met its primary endpoint, with litifilimab showing an 11.8% greater reduction than placebo in CLE disease activity at Week 16 on the CLAIGA Revised erythema score of 0-1.
Amgen (AMGN) - Amgen said a Phase 3 VESALIUS-CV subgroup analysis of 3,655 high-risk primary prevention patients with diabetes found Repatha, added to statins or other LDL-C-lowering treatment, reduced the risk of first major adverse cardiovascular events by 31% versus placebo over a median 4.8 years.
Incyte (INCY) - Incyte reported 54-week Phase 3 STOP-HS data showing povorcitinib delivered substantial and durable improvements over time in key measures of treatment success and clinical benefit in adults with moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa, with a manageable safety profile.
Boston Scientific (BSX) - Boston Scientific said the Champion-AF trial met all primary and secondary safety and efficacy endpoints for the Watchman FLX device versus NOACs in 3,000 patients with NVAF.
Sanofi (SNY) - Sanofi said primary and key secondary endpoints in COAST 1, COAST 2 and SHORE were assessed at Week 24 in patients receiving amlitelimab every four weeks or every 12 weeks, with or without topical medications.
Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) - Reported positive Phase 3 (REVEAL-1) results for elegrobart in thyroid eye disease, meeting primary and key secondary endpoints. Both Q4W and Q8W dosing showed significant efficacy vs placebo at week 24.

MATERIALS

Anglo American (NGLOY) - Anglo American has shortlisted Stanmore Coal with M Resources, BUMA and Dilmar for its Queensland coal portfolio valued at more than USD 5bln, with final bids due in late April or early May, The Australian reports. Stanmore is viewed as the frontrunner. Yancoal is not shortlisted and is instead nearing a deal for EMR Capital’s Kestrel stake.
Rio Tinto (RIO) - Reiterated 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment guidance of 323-338mln tonnes after Tropical Cyclone Narelle and resumed shipments; adverse weather in February affected 8mln tonnes of shipments, with a pathway identified to recover about half; Ship loading restarted on 28th March at East Intercourse Island, Parker Point and Cape Lambert B, but Cape Lambert A repairs continue. Separately, Rio Tinto has hired Morgan Stanley to prepare a sell down of its Pilbara power generation and transmission assets in Western Australia, AFR reports; potential bidders have been told the sale process is expected to launch in H2. The assets are seen as likely to attract private capital interest.
Glencore (GLNCY) - Canada and Quebec are reportedly close to a deal with Glencore to keep the Horne copper smelter open, offering regulatory concessions and considering about CAD 150mln for pollution-control upgrades.

INDUSTRIALS

Alaska Air (ALK) - Expects Q1 2026 adj. EPS loss per share of USD 1.50-2.00; underlying demand strength that began in Q4 2025 and accelerated into new year has been challenged by several external events. Economic fuel price expected USD 2.90-3.00/gal; EPS headwind at least USD 0.70.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) - Received an USD 884.88mln US Army contract for procurement of the 120mm Advanced Multi-Purpose M1147 High Explosive Multi-Purpose with Tracer Cartridge for the Army and future Foreign Military Sales customers.
Senior (SNIRY), Blackstone (BX) - Blackstone is part of a consortium in advanced talks to take Senior private, FT reports; no final decision has been made. The deadline for the parties to make a firm offer is set to expire early next week.
Avis Budget Group (CAR) - Entered an equity distribution agreement on 27th March to sell up to 5mln newly issued common shares through at-the-market offerings and other permitted methods.
French Factories - French factory closures rose almost 30% last year to about 160 from 121 in 2024, while new openings fell to about 103 from 115, Bloomberg reports. The finance ministry cited pressure from Asian competitors, the impact of US tariffs and higher energy prices.

COMMUNICATIONS

Meta Platforms (META) - Morgan Stanley added Meta Platforms to its Top Picks List. Morgan Stanley lowered the META PT to USD 775 (prev. 825) and kept an 'Overweight' rating on the shares. Meta sentiment has troughed due to fears about generative AI and long-term positioning, as well as macro ad market and regulatory question marks more recently, but Meta will "grow faster for longer" and sees potential agentic catalysts, making the current depressed multiple a "strong buying opportunity."
Nexstar (NXST) - A judge temporarily paused Nexstar’s planned USD 6.2bln acquisition of Tegna for 14 days, barring further integration until an in-person hearing on April 7. The ruling sided with DirecTV’s claim that the deal could raise distributor prices, reduce competition and lead to layoffs. Eight states also sued to block the merger.
Telecom Italia (TIIAY) - Said it will not renew a mobile phone tower agreement with Inwit when it expires in August 2030 (that would have extended the contract to 2038); it leaves Telecom Italia without a new long-term tower arrangement, Bloomberg notes.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Nike (NKE) - Nike is facing weak China performance (~15% of revenue) amid economic slowdown and execution missteps, Reuters reports. Losing share to local rivals Anta and Li Ning with stronger pricing and distribution, highlighting competitive and demand pressures.
Instacart (CART), Expedia Group (EXPE) - Shares of both companies were upgraded at Jefferies to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 45 PT (prev. 38). The firm said internet multiples have fallen 25% YTD and now trade at a record 30% discount to the S&P 500 Index, primarily on AI disintermediation concerns. Recent developments suggest the internet "is evolving into an AI beneficiary". The companies are positioned to beat consensus estimates, trade at a "notable growth-adjusted" discount, and are less exposed to geopolitical risks.
Toyota Motor (TM) - Toyota’s global February sales fell 2.3% Y/Y to 806,905 units. Sales in China dropped 13.9%, while production there fell 11.5%, mainly due to the timing of this year’s Lunar New Year holiday.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Sysco (SYY) - Confirmed it is to acquire Restaurant Depot for USD 29.1bln enterprise value; reaffirmed FY26 guidance. To fund the cash portion with USD 21bln new debt and USD 1bln cash and equity. Paused share repurchase program, to reduce net leverage by at least 1.0x in 24 months. Combination expected to realise USD 250mln annualised net cost synergies within three years.
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) - Keurig Dr Pepper’s offer for JDE Peet’s was declared unconditional after 466,712,270 shares, or 96.22%, were tendered by the 27th March, for an aggregate value of EUR 14.86bln.

ENERGY

Chevron (CVX) - Chevron’s Wheatstone LNG facility in Australia to remain below full output for weeks after cyclone damage, per company statement. Disruption adds to tight global LNG supply (cyclone + Middle East conflict impacting >25%), according to MST Marquee analyst.
PetroChina - PetroChina’s net income fell last year to CNY 157.3bln (from CNY 164.7bln in 2024) as lower crude prices and weak fuel demand weighed on profit.
Sable Offshore (SOC) - Announced that on March 29, Sable initiated oil sales. The Santa Ynez Pipeline System was filled from Las Flores Canyon to Pentland Station at a rate in excess of 50,000 barrels of oil per day. At the Santa Ynez Unit, Platform Harmony is currently producing approximately 22,000 gross barrels of oil per day. Meanwhile, Sable plans to commence production restart at Platform Heritage on March 30 at an expected total rate of over 30,000 gross barrels of oil per day. It expects Platform Hondo to be online by the end of the second quarter of 2026 at a rate in excess of 10,000 barrels of oil per day.

GEOPOLITICS

China-Taiwan - China invited Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun to visit Jiangsu, Shanghai and Beijing 7-12th April, the first mainland trip by a sitting KMT leader since 2016. Xinhua said Xi Jinping personally extended the invitation. Cheng has advocated closer ties to China. Separately, China imposed sanctions on Japanese lawmaker Keiji Furuya, accusing him of cultivating ties with people Beijing regards as Taiwan separatists; China said Furuya had visited Taiwan many times and colluded with “Taiwan independence” forces, violating the one-China principle.
US-China - Beijing summoned the US consul general to Hong Kong after the consulate issued an alert about new rules allowing authorities to demand passwords for smartphones and other devices in national security investigations. China urged the US to stop interfering in Hong Kong and Beijing’s internal affairs.
US-Cuba - The Trump administration plans to allow a Russian oil tanker to dock in Cuba in coming days, easing an energy crisis that followed a US ban on deliveries to the Communist regime, Bloomberg reports.
Ukraine-Russia - Ukraine’s military on the weekend said Russia’s Yaroslavl oil refinery was damaged in a drone attack.

MACRO

Global Bonds - JPMorgan and Pimco say markets are underestimating the risk that the US war in Iran could sharply slow an already weak economy; with oil above USD 110/bbl and the conflict continuing, traders have focused on inflation, contributing to what would be the deepest monthly US Treasury market loss since October 2024.
China Overseas Investment Quotas - China raised Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor overseas securities purchase quotas to USD 176.17bln at the end of March (from USD 170.87bln a month earlier). The increase was the first since June 2025, and the largest since 2021, aimed at advancing financial opening and meeting stronger domestic demand for offshore investment, Bloomberg said.
Japanese Yen - Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura strengthened the JPY after issuing his strongest warning yet, stating that bold action may be needed if current conditions continue, and authorities could take decisive action; he said concerns are rising over speculative activity in both crude oil futures and FX markets. The JPY moved off its weakest level since July 2024 after the remarks, pushing USDJPY back below 160, and it extended gains after BoJ Governor Ueda said currency moves have a major impact on the economy and prices.
BoJ Minutes - A BoJ summary of opinions from the 18-19th March meeting showed a hawkish stance, with one board member saying the bank should raise the policy rate without hesitation unless there is a significant deterioration in the economic environment or small firms’ wage-setting stance. Another member suggested the Middle East conflict could require a larger rate increase.
ECB Speak - ECB’s Villeroy said the central bank is ready to act to contain inflation expectations, though added that it was premature to bet on dates for possible rate hikes, La Stampa reports; Villeroy said the Iran war could cause a negative supply shock, slowing growth and accelerating consumer-price increases.

TRADE

E-commerce - WTO members are considering a five-year extension of the global ban on e-commerce tariffs, according to a draft statement cited by Bloomberg, while the Trump administration is pushing for a permanent agreement. The moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions has been renewed every two years since 1998.
US-China - China’s Ministry of Commerce launched an investigation into what it described as US trade barriers affecting green products, citing domestic trade law provisions that allow authorities to examine restrictive measures imposed by other countries.