ANALYSIS - US DATA: Some speculate that the US jobs report could be released next week, but there is no guarantee

• There is no guarantee that the delayed US jobs data for September and October will be released, however, many analysts have speculated that it could be released next week.


• The BLS has said that it is working to get the information out as soon as possible, but it may take time to fully assess the situation and finalise revised release dates. The White House said the October inflation and jobs reports were likely to never be released, citing the six-week shutdown that prevented agencies from collecting essential data, with officials indicating the month’s figures are effectively lost even as the government prepares to reopen.


• Goldman Sachs has looked at historical precedents, and notes that the September jobs data would likely be released a few days after the reopening (likely November 18-19th), while the October report could be released alongside the November data on December 5th.


• Labour market proxies for the October jobs data have been thin, on account of the shutdown. However, according to analysis based on unadjusted state filings, initial jobless claims were said to be at 227k in the week ending October 18th -- the week that coincides with the BLS' usual survey window for the monthly jobs data which falls on the 12th of the month; that would compare to 232k for the comparable survey window in September. Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed's labour market indicators for October sees the real-time unemployment rate forecast at 4.36% (vs its 4.35% in September, while the official jobless rate was last at 4.3%); the Chicago Fed has cautioned that the shutdown is a special factor likely to be only partially reflected in its final release of the October Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators.


• Meanwhile, ADP data for the four weeks ending October 25th indicate that private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labour market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month. Elsewhere, Challenger's data suggests that US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, up 175% Y/Y, and +183% M/M. US job cuts exceeded one million in October YTD, the highest October total since 2003; it said that October’s pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month, as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes. It added that those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labour market.


• Reports have estimated that 670k+ workers had been furloughed as part of the shutdown. NEC director Hassett this week said he expects to see 60k job losses due to the government shutdown, adding that the numbers he has are consistent with more Fed rate cuts.

14 Nov 2025 - 08:46- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newsquawk