[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 86: Trump says deal close as Axios reports 60-day ceasefire framework

OVERVIEW

US President Trump posted on Saturday that the “final aspects and details” of a US-Iran deal are being discussed and will be announced shortly.
Axios reported the draft agreement includes a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening Hormuz with no tolls, Iran clearing mines, and the US lifting its blockade on Iranian ports.
Iran urged caution, saying disputes between the sides have narrowed but issues still need to be discussed through mediators.
Fars pushed back on Trump’s claims, saying Hormuz will remain under Iranian management and will not return to its pre-war state.

KEY POINTS

Axios reported the US and Iran are close to signing an agreement involving a 60-day ceasefire extension.
The draft MoU would last 60 days and could be extended by mutual consent.
The US official said Trump’s key principle is “relief for performance”.
Iran wanted funds unfrozen immediately and permanent sanctions relief, but the US position is that this would only follow tangible concessions.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ

During the 60-day period, Hormuz would reopen with no tolls.
Iran would agree to clear mines it deployed in the Strait to let ships pass freely.
In exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports.
The US would issue some sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell oil freely.
A US official said the faster Iran clears mines and restores shipping, the faster the blockade will be lifted.

NUCLEAR ISSUES

The draft includes Iran committing to never pursue nuclear weapons.
Iran would negotiate over suspension of uranium enrichment and removal of its highly enriched uranium stockpile.
Iran gave verbal commitments through mediators about the scope of concessions it is willing to make on enrichment suspension and nuclear material.

SANCTIONS RELIEF

The US would negotiate sanctions relief and unfreezing Iranian funds during the 60-day period.
Those steps would only be implemented as part of a final agreement that is verifiably implemented.
US forces mobilised in recent months would remain in the region during the 60-day period and only withdraw if a final deal is reached.

Reuters reported Iran and Pakistan submitted a revised proposal to end the conflict to the US.
A US response is expected by Sunday, according to Pakistani sources cited by Reuters.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister said his call with Trump marked a “significant step closer toward regional peace”.

Trump said an agreement has been largely negotiated between the US, Iran and other countries, subject to finalisation.
Trump added the Strait of Hormuz will be opened as part of the deal.
Trump said he had a “very good call” with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Jordan and Bahrain.
Trump said he also had a separate call with Netanyahu that “went very well”.
Trump said negotiators are “getting a lot closer” to reaching a deal.
Trump said he will only sign a deal where the US gets “everything we want”.
Trump said Iran’s enriched uranium must be “satisfactorily handled”.
Trump warned: “Either we reach a good deal or I’ll blow them to a thousand hells.”
US Secretary of State Rubio said work was ongoing and that there could be something to announce soon.

IRAN ON NEGOTIATIONS

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the trend this week has been towards a reduction in disputes, but issues still need to be discussed through mediators.
Iran said the latest draft provides a framework and should include the main issues needed to end the war and other essential issues.
Iran said details would then be discussed over a reasonable 30–60 day timeframe.
Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan said there were grounds for “conservative optimism” and that a positive step may be taking shape if the other side is committed.

IRAN ON HORMUZ

Fars said Trump’s suggestion that Hormuz would return to its previous state is “not true”.
Fars said Iran has agreed to allow ship traffic to return to pre-war levels, but this does not mean a return to pre-war “free passage”.
Tasnim reported that an initial memorandum between Washington and Tehran could see the US waive sanctions on Iranian oil during negotiations.
Tasnim reported Hormuz will remain under Iran’s management.
Tasnim said a 30-day period is proposed to implement measures linked to the US naval blockade. Once the blockade is lifted, Iran would reopen the waterway.
Iranian officials suggested conditions would not fully return to pre-war norms, even if regular shipping traffic resumes.
Tehran emphasised its sovereignty over the Strait.

Axios said the draft MoU would make clear that the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon would end.
Netanyahu reportedly expressed concern about the Lebanon condition during a call with Trump.
A US official said it would not be a “one-sided ceasefire” and Israel could act if Hezbollah tried to rearm or instigate attacks.
A US official said: “If Hezbollah behaves, Israel will behave.”

Hundreds of British sailors are on standby in Gibraltar for possible mine-clearing operations in Hormuz if a peace agreement is reached.
RFA Lyme Bay has been loaded with ammunition and mine-hunting sea drones.
The UK mine-clearing priority would be to clear a transit lane allowing around 700 ships to leave, then a second lane for ships to enter.
UK officials said clearing the entire Strait could take months or years.