US EARLY MORNING: US equity futures are around flat; ahead, key employment costs data and big cap corporate earnings are due

OVERNIGHT: Overnight, APAC markets were subdued after a weak handover from Wall Street, and didn’t manage to garner any meaningful risk-on following official China PMI data, where all three major headlines returned to expansion territory (perhaps as traders have discounted the notion that policymakers will be providing support to the economy in the months ahead). The European start was supported following French inflation data – which was tamer than some were fearing after Spain’s hotter-than-expected release on Monday – and lends to the argument that the ECB may still have the scope to downshift the pace of rate hikes after the March meeting (markets still expect 50bps on Thursday, followed by 50bps in March).

US PRE-MARKETS: US equity futures are just under the neutral mark, though are off lows seen overnight after French inflation data. Treasuries are bid, with yields narrowing by 2-4bps across the curve, with shorter-dated yields outperforming. The Dollar Index is back above 102.50, largely as a function of the EUR falling in wake of the French data and soft German retail sales, while Aussie retail sales were also soft overnight. Citi’s month end model was pointing to USD selling vs all currencies except for the EUR. As the US Day comes into focus, traders will begin refocussing on the stateside events, where the earnings slate is packed with heavyweights, including Caterpillar, Exxon, McDonalds, Pfizer, UBS. There is also the key Employment Costs data for Q4, which Fed officials watch closely – we preview these events below.

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31 Jan 2023 - 09:30- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newsquawk

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