Daily US Equity Opening News - Energy and defence stocks higher on geopolitical escalations; NVO terminates collab with HIMS

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  DAY AHEAD: The primary focus is on geopolitics, with Iran yet to detail its response to the weekend's US strikes on its nuclear facilities (see our recap of events below). On the data slate, flash PMI data is to be released, where the US measures are expected to fall slightly. Elsewhere, US existing home sales for May are seen slipping to 3.95mln from 4.0mln. On the speakers' slate, remarks are due today from Fed's Waller (voter); Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter); Fed's Kugler (voter) and Williams (voter) will speak at a 'Fed Listens event'; Fed's Bowman (voter) will speak at a banking conference. ECB President Lagarde is also due to speak today.


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  BROKER MOVES: EL upgraded at Deutsche Bank; DOW downgraded at BMO Capital. For the full list, click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: TSLA, Energy Names, GMS, FI, SMCI, EL, AAPL, AAPL/META, HIMS. For the full list, click here, click here
  


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  DAILY US CONFERENCE CALENDAR: BLK, MSFT, IBM. To see the full calendar, click here.
  


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  WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include inflation data from the US, Canada, Australia; Global PMIs; BoJ Summary of Opinions. Click here for our week ahead preview.
  


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  CENTRAL BANK WEEKLY: Previewing Banxico; reviewing FOMC, SNB, BoE, BoJ, PBoC, BCB, CBRT, Norges Bank, Riksbank. Click here for our central bank weekly preview.
  


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  WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Light earnings schedule although FDX, MU, and NKE all report. Click here for our weekly US earnings estimates preview.
  

GEOPOLITICS:

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  US-IRAN - The US launched “Operation Midnight Hammer,” striking Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using 125 aircraft and submarine missiles. Significant damage was confirmed, including deep craters. Iran’s air defences failed to respond. President Trump claimed on Sunday that US strikes caused “monumental” damage to Iranian nuclear sites, describing the impact as “obliteration” and praising military precision. He suggested regime change could follow if Iran’s leadership fails to “Make Iran Great Again,” and confirmed B-2 pilots had returned safely to Missouri. Trump described the bombings as a joint US-Israel effort, and confirmed a diplomatic path remains open. He said the strike would be a one-time action, with Washington still seeking diplomacy; other reports suggested that Trump would avoid further strikes unless US bases were attacked. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Israel and warned of further actions, and denied any major nuclear losses. The IAEA found no radiation leak but awaits full damage assessment. Iran’s parliament has endorsed closing the Strait of Hormuz following the US strikes, introducing significant geopolitical risk; the strait channels around 30% of global seaborne oil flows. While not yet closed, the move awaits approval from the Supreme Security Council and Supreme Leader Khamenei. Global reactions were mixed: the UN and EU urged de-escalation; the E3 called for Iran’s return to talks; Gulf states condemned the strike; and Israel praised it. US political responses were divided along party lines. Domestically, the US raised its terror threat level. Geopolitical analysts suggested that Iran faces three options after the US strikes on its nuclear sites: 1) escalate by closing the Strait of Hormuz; 2) retaliate selectively; 3) de-escalate to avoid broader conflict. Goldman Sachs flagged potential oil and gas price rises after the US struck Iran, though its base case expects no major supply disruptions. GS said that if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz fell by half for one month, and remained 10% lower for 11 months, Brent crude could briefly reach USD 110/bbl. A drop of 1.75mln BPD in Iranian supply could push Brent to USD 90/bbl.


• Click here for Newsquawk's full US-Iran news summary and analysis.

MACRO

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  US Tariffs - The US Supreme Court declined to expedite a challenge by two family-owned businesses against President Trump’s tariffs. The administration will have the standard 30 days to respond, rather than the shorter period requested by the companies seeking to invalidate many of the import taxes.


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  Big, Beautiful Bill - President Trump’s tax-and-spending mega bill is being slimmed down after the Senate rules arbiter ruled some controversial provisions ineligible for a special GOP procedure. The bill focuses on extending 2017 tax cuts, border security, and defence funding, partly offset by Medicaid cuts, with food aid and consumer-protection measures dropped.

TECH

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  Apple (AAPL) - Apple executives internally discussed a potential bid for Perplexity AI to acquire AI talent and technology, Bloomberg reports. M&A head Adrian Perica reportedly explored the idea with services chief Eddy Cue and senior AI leaders, but no direct talks with Perplexity management have occurred. Separately, Apple signed a deal with Peter Chernin’s North Road studio to get first access to new movie projects, marking Apple’s expanding ambitions in Hollywood; North Road had been aligned with Netflix (NFLX) for five years but retains rights to films already in development for other studios, including two upcoming Netflix releases. Separately, the FT reportsApple is locked in last-minute negotiations with Brussels regulators over making changes to its app store. People involved in the negotiations said Apple was expected to offer concessions on its “steering” provisions that stop users accessing offers outside the App Store.


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  Uber (UBER) - Said EV cost is no longer the top barrier for drivers in the US and UK, as prices have fallen to more affordable levels, a first in four years of surveying. However, concerns about charging availability and infrastructure now rank higher among driver challenges, Uber said.


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  Uber (UBER), Lyft (LFYT) - New York City set a 5% minimum pay increase for rideshare drivers, down from a proposed 6.1%, following pushback from Uber and Lyft. The new rules also aim to prevent the companies from locking drivers out of their apps to control costs. The Taxi and Limousine Commission will vote on the rules on June 25th.


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  Chip Waivers - The WSJ on Friday reported that the US plans to revoke blanket waivers that allow South Korea’s Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (HXSCL), as well as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), to ship US chip-making equipment to their factories in China without individual licenses. This move aims to restrict China’s chip capabilities but may escalate trade tensions.


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  AI - A Republican effort to block US states from enforcing new AI regulations will remain in the Trump tax bill for now, Bloomberg reports. The Senate version of the AI moratorium would deny states federal funding for broadband internet projects if they enforce AI regulations.


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  Fair Isaac (FICO) - WSJ reports that FICO plans to roll out a new model that factors into how it scores BNPL loans.


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  Fiserv (FI) - Confirmed it is to launch a new FIUSD stablecoin for financial institutions.


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  Super Micro Computer (SMCI) - Announced proposed offering of USD 2bln of convertible senior notes due 2030; may grant an option to purchase further USD 300mln notes.


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  Wolfspeed (WOLF) - Said on Sunday that it plans to file for bankruptcy in the US under a restructuring agreement with creditors, which would provide it with fresh financing and slash debt by almost 70%.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Comcast (CMCSA), Disney (DIS) - DreamWorks (CMCSA) 'How to Train Your Dragon' topped the box office again in its second weekend, earning USD 37mln in US and Canadian theatres, outperforming new releases 28 Years Later and Pixar’s (DIS) Elio, Comscore said.


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  Meta Platforms (META) - Discussed a possible acquisition of AI search startup Perplexity AI before choosing to invest billions in Scale AI. Talks between Meta and Perplexity ended without a deal, with financial terms undisclosed.


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  Getty Images (GETY), Shutterstock (SSTK) - UK's CMA said considering whether the Getty Images/Shutterstock merger will result in the creation of a relevant merger situation.


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  Trump Media (DJT) - Announced share repurchase authorisation; board approved up to USD 400mln stock buyback. Share repurchase authorisation would be funded separately from and would not alter the co's Bitcoin strategy.


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  News Corp (NWS) - Announced the extension of Chief Executive Robert Thomson, which will see him continue as CEO until June 2030.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Tesla (TSLA) - Launched its driverless robotaxi service in Austin with a limited rollout, featuring rides for select investors and influencers. Each trip included an employee monitoring operations. The service marks the start of what CEO Elon Musk envisions as a transformative business line. Meanwhile, Texas has authorised legislation, effective September 1st, requiring a permit to operate self-driving vehicles, amid Telsa's robotaxi trial rollout in Austin, Reuters reports.


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  Ford (F), Oshkosh Corp (OSK) - The Senate said on Sunday that Senate Republicans cannot force the US Postal Service to scrap thousands of electric vehicles and charging equipment in a massive tax and budget bill, Reuters reports. The USPS currently has 7.2k electric vehicles, made up of Ford e-Transit vehicles and specially built Next Generation Delivery Vehicles built by Oshkosh Defense; replacement of the 7.2k EVs would directly cost the Postal Service at least USD 250mln.


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  Toyota (TM) - Will raise US vehicle prices by more than USD 200 from July, with Toyota and Lexus's models increasing by an average of USD 270 and USD 208 respectively, according to a company spokesperson.


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  Estee Lauder (EL) - Upgraded at Deutsche Bank to 'Buy' from 'Hold with a USD 95 PT (prev. 71). The firm cites increasing evidence that Estee Lauder's strategy is diversifying well beyond China and travel retail for future growth, underpinned by moves to accelerate innovation and migrate decision-making geographically closer to where business gets done.


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  Li Auto (LI) - Announced a new electric five-seater SUV i6 to be released in September.


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  Prada (PRDSY) - CEO Gianfranco D’Attis is leaving the brand by mutual agreement, effective June 30th, WWD reports. Prada Group CEO Andrea Guerra will take over on an interim basis. D’Attis, who joined in January 2022, faced strategic disagreements with Prada’s owners.

FINANCIALS

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  Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Northern Trust (NTRS) - BNY Mellon approached Northern Trust about a possible merger, with CEOs having at least one conversation, but no formal offer discussed yet, WSJ reports. BNY is considering next steps, including potentially making a formal bid, sources said.


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  Apollo Global Management (APO) - Agreed to help EDF raise up to GBP 4.5bln via private bond placements to fund the Hinkley Point C nuclear plant and other UK investments. The bonds will be issued in up to three tranches with maturities of up to 12 years, starting with GBP 1.5bln on June 26.


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  Aflac (AFL) - Reported a cybersecurity breach on June 12th that may have exposed customers’ personal data, including Social Security numbers and health claims information. The company contained the hack within hours and engaged cybersecurity experts to manage the incident.


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  KKR (KKR) - Spectris agreed on Monday to a USD 5.9bln debt-inclusive takeover deal by PE firm Advent over a rival proposal from KKR, marking the biggest acquisition in Britain this year, Reuters reports.


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  Ares Management (ARES) - Eni said it has sold a 20% stake in its retail and renewables business Plenitude to Ares Management Corp for ~USD 2.3bln.


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  Bitcoin (BTC) - Bitcoin fell below USD 100k and Ether also dropped after US bombers attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, sparking risk aversion in digital-asset markets.


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  FactSet Research Systems (FDS) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.27 (exp. 4.30), Revenue 586mln (exp. 581mln). Sees FY25 adj. EPS 16.80-17.40 (exp. 17.06). Approved 400mln share repurchase authorisation.

ENERGY

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  Oil Prices - Brent crude briefly rose above USD 80 a barrel following US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, marking the highest level since mid-January. Prices later eased as the Strait of Hormuz remained open, limiting immediate supply disruptions despite heightened geopolitical risks to global oil markets. Goldman Sachs flagged potential oil and gas price rises after the US struck Iran, though its base-case expects no major supply disruptions. GS said that if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz fell by half for one month, and remained 10% lower for 11 months, Brent crude could briefly reach USD 110/bbl. A drop of 1.75mln BPD in Iranian supply could push Brent to USD 90/bbl.


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  Strait of Hormuz - Two supertankers, Coswisdom Lake and South Loyalty, each carrying about 2mln bbls of crude, made U-turns in the Strait of Hormuz after US airstrikes on Iran raised fears of disruptions to commercial shipping. Both vessels exited the waterway, sailing south away from the Persian Gulf.


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  OPEC+ - Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said OPEC+’s decision to accelerate oil output increases was astute and justified, considering consumer interests amid Middle East conflict uncertainty between Iran and Israel.


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  US Refining - US refining capacity fell by 43k BPD in 2024 to 18.3mln BPD, reflecting fuel makers’ cautious stance amid uncertain gasoline and diesel demand, according to the EIA. This contraction follows a previous period of capacity expansion.


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  BP Plc (BP) - Former Centrica CEO Sam Laidlaw is among candidates considered to chair BP, succeeding Helge Lund amid the oil major’s crisis, Sky News reports. Ex-BHP chair Ken MacKenzie has also been approached, Sky said.


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  Shell (SHEL) - Shel's LNG facility in Canada produces its first LNG for export in British Columbia, a spokesperson said on Sunday.

HEALTHCARE

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  Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Terminated collaboration with Hims & Hers (HIMS) due to concerns about their illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing.


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  Health Insurers - Major US health insurers have pledged to reduce red tape by cutting the number of procedures requiring prior authorisation, standardising approval processes across plans, and ensuring 80% of electronic medical claim approvals occur in real-time, Bloomberg reports. The voluntary changes are expected to be implemented by 2027.


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  Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Novo Nordisk’s obesity drug CagriSema showed significant weight loss in studies, with patients sticking to lower doses losing more on average despite only about 75% reaching the highest dose. Researchers say this dosing flexibility reflects real-world use, highlighting a group that responds well to the medicine. Separately, Novo Nordisk’s experimental obesity drug amycretin achieved up to 24.3% weight loss over 36 weeks in a small trial, with generally manageable side effects. Late-stage trials are set to begin early next year, testing both pill and shot forms. The drug targets GLP-1 and amylin hormones in a single molecule.


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  Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly's orforglipron met the primary endpoint in the Phase 3 ACHIEVE-1 trial, significantly reducing A1C by 1.3-1.6% at 40 weeks vs placebo. Higher doses also led to meaningful weight loss. Safety was consistent with the GLP-1 class. Up to 76.2% achieved A1C below 7%, with results published in NEJM. Eli Lilly also announced that its once-weekly insulin efsitora met the primary endpoint of non-inferior A1C reduction in Phase 3 QWINT-1, QWINT-3, and QWINT-4 trials vs daily basal insulin. A1C reductions ranged from 0.86-1.31%, matching or slightly exceeding comparators, with dosing tailored to glucose levels or fixed titration.


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  Roche (RHHBY) - Early data suggest Roche’s NXT007 may have the potential to provide haemostatic normalisation in people with haemophilia A. Positive phase I/II data presented at the 2025 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) Congress show NXT007 achieved no bleeds requiring treatment in the highest dose groups in people with haemophilia A1. Three phase III clinical studies on NXT007, a next-generation bispecific antibody, are set to begin in 2026.


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  GE Healthcare (GEHC) - Will showcase its precision care portfolio at the SNMMI Annual Meeting, highlighting theranostics tools like Omni Legend, StarGuide, and MIM software aimed at enhancing imaging, AI-driven diagnostics, and therapy monitoring to support improved oncology outcomes


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  Incyte (INCY) - The FDA extended the sNDA review for Opzelura in children aged 2–11yrs old with atopic dermatitis by three months to September 19th, to assess additional manufacturing data. Incyte has expressed confidence in Opzelura’s potential as a non-steroidal treatment option.


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  Exelixis (EXEL) - Reported positive topline results from the STELLAR-303 Phase 3 trial, where zanzalintinib plus atezolizumab significantly improved overall survival versus regorafenib in previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer patients.


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  Illumina (ILMN) - Standard Biotools (LAB) entered the next phase of transformation with the strategic sale of SomaLogic to Illumina; deal valued at up to USD 425mln with USD 350mln upfront.


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  Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Imaavy showed greater sustained disease control vs. approved FCRN blockers for generalised myastenhia gravis at multiple time points over 24 weeks in a newly published indirect treatment comparison.


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  Merck (MRK) - Said Phase 3 HYPERION trial of Winrevair (sotatercept-CSRK) in recently diagnosed PAH patients met its primary endpoint, significantly reducing time to clinical worsening. The drug showed a consistent safety profile in line with prior studies.


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  GSK (GSK) - Announced that the EMA has accepted for review the marketing authorisation application, MAA, for the use of linerixibat, an investigational targeted inhibitor of the ileal bile acid transporter, IBAT, for the treatment of cholestatic pruritus in patients with PBC, a rare autoimmune liver disease.

MATERIALS

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  Dow (DOW) - Downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital with a USD 22 PT (prev. 29). The firm argues "significant weakness" across Dow's end markets resulting in soft pricing and lower volumes is likely to result in "severely challenged" Q2 EBITDA and second half of the year estimates "coming solidly lower". The analysts said, "with no end in sight for these anemic earnings levels, there appears a heightened risk Dow may cut the dividend".


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  LME - The London Metal Exchange introduced a new rule requiring traders to reduce any nearby month contract positions exceeding total available stock, Bloomberg reports. The measure, effective immediately, aims to limit large bets following increased activity from major energy traders that disrupted the market in recent months.


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  Cobalt Prices - The DRC extended its cobalt export ban to September, tightening supply. Congo produces around 75% of global cobalt and cited high market stock levels for continuing the suspension, which started in February.

INDUSTRIALS

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  Rolls-Royce (RYCEY), GE Aerospace (GE) - UK officials are lobbying South Korea to select Rolls-Royce over GE Aerospace as an engine partner for its fighter jet programme, FT reports. Talks reportedly include proposals for co-production with a foreign partner as an interim step.


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  GMS (GMS), QXO (QXO), Home Depot (HD) - QXO will not increase its USD 5bln offer for building products distributor GMS despite reports that Home Depot submitted a competing bid. QXO confirmed USD 5bln was its final offer.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  Walmart (WMT) - Will pay USD 10mln to settle FTC charges that it allowed scammers to exploit its money transfer services between 2013-2018. The final order prohibits Walmart from facilitating fraud-related transfers and mandates stricter anti-fraud controls, resolving the case after years of litigation setbacks for the FTC. Separately, Walmart’s PhonePe is preparing to file for an India IPO, and is expected to raise up to USD 1.5bln, valuing the fintech at about USD 15bln, Bloomberg reports; PhonePe is India's largest provider of digital payments; the company plans to submit a draft prospectus as early as August.


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  Hormel Foods (HRL) - Announced John Ghingo will become President; Jeffrey M. Ettinger will serve as interim CEO for 15 months. Hormel dissolved the CEO search committee and permanent CEO in October 2026

UTILITIES

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  US Power - PJM Interconnection, covering about 20% of US consumers across 13 states, declared an energy emergency alert as power demand is expected to hit 160 gigawatts on June 23rd, the highest since 2011. The operator also called a “maximum generation emergency” to ensure supply amid intense heat.

23 Jun 2025 - 14:04- Geopolitical- Source: Newsquawk