[ANALYSIS] US strikes Iranian nuclear sites: Recap of developments and risks ahead

OVERVIEW

US Strike Operations

• 
  US President Trump confirmed the launch of “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation used 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 bombers, alongside submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles.


• Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators ("bunker busters") were deployed to penetrate deeply buried targets, notably Fordow.


• Satellite imagery confirmed significant infrastructure damage at all three nuclear sites, with Fordo showing six fresh craters.


• 
  All targets were reportedly struck between 23:40 BST (Saturday) and 00:05 BST (Sunday). Iran’s air defense systems failed to detect or intercept the incoming attacks.


• 
  Trump described the attack as a joint effort with Israel, saying they “worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before.”


• Axios quoted officials as saying that Whitkov told Araqchi during the operation that “the strike is only once.” He confirmed that Washington was still seeking a diplomatic solution and wanted Tehran to return to negotiations.


• 
  US President Trump did not want to continue striking Iran, but he would do so if US bases were targeted, according to Sky News Arabia citing Axios.


• 
  US President Trump reportedly directed staff to announce a two-week window in order to conceal plans for the Iran attack, according to CNN sources.

Damage Assessment & Nuclear Risk

• IAEA Director General Grossi said craters are visible at Fordow, Natanz suffered direct hits, and tunnel entrances at Isfahan were struck. Full underground damage assessment remains pending. A special IAEA board meeting is scheduled for Monday.


• Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine stated it is “too early” to assess whether Iran’s nuclear capability was fully neutralised.


• US intelligence officials have raised concerns Iran may have relocated enriched uranium stockpiles in advance.


• 
  US Secretary of State Rubio urged Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles, claiming they remain buried under Isfahan and likely were not moved before the strikes.


• 
  The IAEA reported no signs of a radiation leak. Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority confirmed no radioactive effects were detected in Gulf states.

Strait of Hormuz & Oil Flow Threat

• The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s security body will make the final decision on whether to proceed with the plan, state television reported.


• 
  US Secretary of State Rubio warned such a move would be “economic suicide” for Iran, but remains a credible escalation vector.


• 
  NOTE: Market contacts have suggested OPEC+ have not had any calls, with no talks of an emergency meeting yet amid no signs of supply disruptions, yet.

Iranian Military Response

• Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv and Haifa, Israel, resulting in at least 86 reported injuries.


• Iranian officials have warned that future actions could target over 20 US bases or naval assets in the region.


• 
  Iran stated that its military would determine the timing, nature, and scale of its response, according to Reuters.


• 
  Signs have emerged of Iran‑backed militias preparing to attack US bases in Iraq and Syria, according to Sky News Arabia citing The New York Times.


• Iranian air defenses reportedly activated in Isfahan, targeting hostile Israeli aircraft.


• 
  Iranian forces reported that Israeli airstrikes killed nine personnel — seven Revolutionary Guards and two conscripts — in Yazd province.

Iranian Messaging

• 
  Iran is weighing its response — with its Foreign Minister saying “all options” are on the table after Washington proved “they only understand the language of threat and force”, according to CNN.


• Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that US strikes would “result in irreparable damage” to the US.


• Iran’s President Pezeshkian warned of a “more devastating” retaliation if Israel’s bombing campaign continued.


• Iranian regime sources denied any major nuclear material loss from the strikes, implying the sites had been preemptively evacuated.


• 
  Iran’s Crisis Management HQ stated there was “no danger” to civilians near Fordow; state media reported the site had “long been evacuated.”


• An adviser to Khamenei claimed Iran still retains its enriched uranium, indigenous nuclear knowledge, and political will, despite facility damage.


• Iran’s Foreign Minister condemned the strikes as a violation of international law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.


• 
  The Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation called the attacks “a barbaric act” breaching international law.

International Reactions

• 
  The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting at 20:00 BST on Sunday in response to the strikes. US Ambassador Dorothy Shea defended the operation; China, Russia, and Pakistan called for an immediate ceasefire and accused the US of breaching the UN Charter.


• 
  The UN and EU called for de-escalation, with Secretary-General António Guterres warning of a “dangerous escalation.”


• The E3 (UK, France, Germany) released a joint statement urging Iran to return to nuclear negotiations and warning against further destabilising actions.


• 
  Gulf Arab states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait condemned the US strikes, calling for restraint and diplomatic resolution.


• 
  UK PM Keir Starmer backed the US strike, describing it as a response to a “grave threat.”


• 
  Israeli PM Netanyahu praised the US action, calling it a display of “awesome and righteous might” that could “change history.”


• 
  Saudi Arabia, Oman, and India expressed concern and urged all sides to pursue diplomatic solutions.

US Political & Legal Fallout

• 
  Congressional response to the strikes was mixed. Most Republicans expressed support, with Senator Ted Cruz praising the operation. However, some dissent emerged within the party, notably from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who stated, “Not our fight.” Democrats strongly criticised the move; Senator Bernie Sanders labelled it “grossly unconstitutional” and accused President Trump of bypassing Congress.


• 
  US Department of Justice said President Trump had the authority under Article II to order the Iran strikes without congressional approval, but a prolonged conflict might require Congress’s involvement, according to CNN.


• 
  US President Trump to meet with National Security team at 13:00 EDT/18:00 BST on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

Trump on Truth Social

• 
  US President Trump posted on Sunday "The damage to the Nuclear sites in Iran is said to be “monumental.” The hits were hard and accurate. Great skill was shown by our military. " Trump added that "if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change", and that "The GREAT B-2 pilots have just landed, safely, in Missouri."


• 
  President Trump later posted "Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!...The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!"

US Domestic Threats

• 
  The US is on high alert for Iranian-backed terrorist attacks, especially in the 48 hours following the strike. FBI, DHS, and local law enforcement have increased security presence at places of worship in major cities including New York and Washington, DC.


• 
  DHS warned of a heightened domestic threat environment, including potential for cyberattacks or lone-wolf incidents inspired by religious rulings.


• The White House is monitoring potential Iranian sleeper cells inside the US.


• 
  VP Vance stated the administration is watching known terror watch list individuals who entered during the Biden era.

Regional Axis Responses/Headlines

• 
  Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Moscow to consult with President Putin. Russia condemned the US strikes as a “flagrant violation of international law.”


• 
  Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi said he would discuss tackling common challenges and threats with Russian President Putin, according to Iranian news agency SNN.


• 
  Hezbollah condemned the US strikes, calling them a violation of international and humanitarian law, and warned the conflict could spiral globally.


• A Yemeni Houthi official warned retaliation for the US attack was “only a matter of time.”

MARKET REACTION: 

At the resumption of trade WTI surged 6% with ES -50pts, and gold higher by some USD 25/oz following the US attack on Iran over the weekend; however, moves have trimmed from extremes within the first two minutes before stabilising. DXY surged above 99.00 with some further strength seen around the Chinese open. Paring from extremes, possibly on hopes that the US strike was a "one and done" situation, any attacks on US bases or assets in the region may further deteriorate risk amid the likelihood of a US response to an Iranian retaliation.

RISKS AHEAD

Where troops in the Middle East are most vulnerable to Iranian attacks

• 
  Iraq (Al-Asad Air Base): Closest to Iran, ~2,500 troops, past target of ballistic missiles; high probability of repeat strikes.


• 
  Kuwait: ~13,500 troops across five bases; within quick missile range, minimal warning time.


• 
  Syria & Jordan: Small US presence but frequent attacks by Iran-backed militias; active threat zones.


• 
  Qatar (Al Udeid Air Base): ~10,000 troops, CENTCOM HQ; lower risk due to strategic importance but high-value target.


• 
  Bahrain & UAE: Major US naval and air assets; less likely to be struck due to regional political dynamics.

MARKET RISKS AHEAD

• 
  Any targeting of US bases or assets in the region will likely prompt a response from the US, thus this development is one of the key points to watch.


• 
  The Iranian parliament’s endorsement of Strait of Hormuz closure, in response to US strikes on nuclear facilities, introduces a material geopolitical risk premium to global markets. The strait handles c.30% of global seaborne oil flows, and while no closure has occurred yet, the measure now awaits sign-off from Iran’s Supreme Security Council and Supreme Leader Khamenei.


• 
  Shipping disruption risk remains elevated, with insurers likely to re-rate Gulf transits if threats escalate. Tanker rerouting or delays could impact refinery margins and downstream inventories, particularly in Asia. Analysts warn of energy-driven inflation pressures re-emerging, potentially complicating central bank easing cycles.


• 
  Broader risk sentiment is expected to remain fragile. Safe-haven demand has lifted USTs, gold, and the USD, while equity markets may face drawdowns in high-beta sectors (airlines, EMs, industrials) on escalation fears. EMFX sensitivity—particularly in net oil-importers or Gulf-linked economies—will be closely watched.


• 
  Cybersecurity risk has also been flagged, with US infrastructure and financial systems considered potential retaliation targets.

23 Jun 2025 - 04:25- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk