WEEKEND RUSSIA-UKRAINE HEADLINES:

DIPLOMATIC HEADLINES

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  US President Biden and Russian President Putin have separately agreed in principle to a French proposal to meet, according to the French Presidency which added that the summit can only happen if Russia does not invade Ukraine, while the content of the summit will be prepared by US Secretary of State Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.


• Russia will participate in Contact Group negotiations between Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), if Kiev manages get the sides to talk, Sputnik sources stated.


• 
  Russian President Putin and French President Macron discussed Ukraine during a phone call in which President Putin told President Macron that provocations by Ukrainian security forces were the cause of the escalation in Donbass, while the leaders noted a need to step up the search for diplomatic solutions, according to Tass and Ria citing the Kremlin. Furthermore, Russian President Putin reiterated to Macron that Russian troops would leave Belarus after military exercises and they agreed to trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and OSCE on Monday, according to a French official.


• 
  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said the window for diplomacy remains and that they must be prepared for any scenario, while he added that the time has come to implement some sanctions prepared against Russia, according to Reuters.

SANCTIONS HEADLINES

• 
  US President Biden's administration prepared an initial package of sanctions that would ban US banks from processing transactions with large Russian banks, while the plan would cut correspondent banking ties between targeted Russian banks and US banks, according to sources.


• European Commission President von der Leyen told CNBC that energy sanctions against Russia are still an option if Russia invades Ukraine. She said “everything is on the table” when asked about the possibility of imposing sanctions on Russian gas giant Gazprom. She said Europe imports around 40% of its gas supply from Gazprom.


• 
  Ukrainian President Zelensky told Western leaders gathered at a security conference in Munich that he wants sanctions to be imposed against Russia before any potential invasion by Russia and not after, according to CBS. President Zelenskiy also said Ukraine would not respond to provocations in the eastern Donbass region and would strive to establish peace through diplomacy, according to Reuters.


• 
  German Chancellor Scholz rejected calls from Ukrainian President Zelensky to sanction Russia now and said that Moscow should not be sure “exactly” how the West will respond to a potential invasion, according to CNBC.

INVASION HEADLINES

• 
  White House reiterated that Russia could launch an attack on Ukraine at any time, while US President Biden said he is convinced Russian President Putin has decided to invade Ukraine. Furthermore, President Biden said the door is still open for diplomacy until an attack is launched and tweeted that they are calling out Russia’s plans not because they want a conflict, but because they are doing everything in their power to remove any reason Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine.


• 
  US Vice President Harris said US intelligence on Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine and a potential invasion within days is solid, according to Bloomberg.


• 
  UK PM Johnson said Russia is planning what could be the biggest war in Europe since 1945 in terms of sheer scale, while he warned that the UK and US would stop Russian companies trading in USD and GBP if Ukraine is invaded, according to BBC. PM Johnson also spoke to French President Macron about Ukraine and said Russian President Putin’s comments to Macron were a welcome sign that he may still be willing to engage, while PM Johnson said that Russian President Putin must step back from threats and withdraw troops from Ukraine’s border.


• 
  Russian Kremlin said repeated western naming of dates for a Russian invasion of Ukraine is provocative and could have adverse consequences, while it added that Russian President Putin takes no notice of western statements regarding invasion dates, according to Interfax and Ria. Furthermore, the Kremlin said Moscow appeals to western partners’ reason and said that Russia is the last country to want to utter the word ‘war’ but added that the situation on the line of contact in Donbass has been strained to the maximum and any minor provocation could lead to irreparable consequences, according to IFX and Tass.

MILITARY HEADLINES

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  Russia and Belarus extended drills for thousands of troops and are to continue inspection of readiness of military forces of the two countries, according to the Belarus Defence Ministry citing increased military activity near borders of Russia and Belarus.


• 
  Russia will open criminal cases over reports of civilian casualties following an alleged attack by the Ukrainian army on the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic.


• 
  US Secretary of State Blinken said Russia and Belarus continuing exercises makes him concerned about an invasion of Ukraine and said that everything leading up to an invasion of Ukraine appears to be taking place but added that until the tanks are actually rolling, they will use every opportunity to see if diplomacy can dissuade Russian President Putin, according to CNN. Furthermore, Blinken still intends to meet with Lavrov unless Russia invades Ukraine.


• 
  A large deployment of at least 50 military helicopters was reported at the Lida Airfield in north western Belarus near the Lithuanian border, according to satellite imagery firm Maxar. It was also reported that imagery showed new activity with the Russia-Ukraine situation on Saturday and said multiple new field deployments of armored equipment and troops observed northwest of Belgorod and near Soloti and Valuyki, Russia.


• 
  Head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin, said he'd signed a decree on general mobilisation in the republic, according to Sputnik.


• 
  Explosions were heard on Sunday in the separatist-held city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, according to Reuters.


• 
  Sputnik reported that Kiev forces shelled a village in Donetsk using artillery prohibited by the Minsk agreement, while Ukraine rebels said two civilians were killed in shelling by government forces, according to Ria. Interfax reported that one DPR solder was also killed.


• 
  OSCE recorded almost 2,000 ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine on Friday, according to Reuters. Other reports also noted heavy fighting between Ukraine’s armed forces and Russian-backed separatists along the contact line with both sides accusing each other of serious ceasefire breaches, according to Ebcnews.

EVACUATION HEADLINES

• 
  US Embassy in Russia warned Americans to have an evacuation plan and noted that there have been threats of attacks against shopping centres, railway and metro stations, as well as other public gatherings in major urban areas including Moscow and St. Petersburg, according to Reuters.


• 
  Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine began evacuating people which has fuelled concern that Russia was setting up a pre-text to justify an invasion of Ukraine, according to NYT.

OTHER HEADLINES

• 
  Poland is to convene an extraordinary meeting of the OSCE to discuss Ukraine. There were also comments from Poland's President that it is naive to think that complying with some of Russia’s demands will lead to peace in Europe during comments at the Munich Security Conference.


• 
  Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Landsbergis warned that Russian President Putin would go further if he is not stopped in Ukraine which is why many Lithuanians are worried, while he added that they have to be serious about defence not deterrence during a press conference with US Secretary of Defense Austin.

21 Feb 2022 - 05:52- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk